NaoPos Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The fact that the euro shifted south is down thing to take into consideration. Even the 0z euro ens shifted south as well and look fairly less amplified than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 will need to wait till saturday 12z runs to see if this has a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I know people will panic with this EURO run, but a lot probably won't realize how close the EURO was to being a GGEM-ish bomb @ 72 hours...my god, just a little better timing. Hmm maybe i should take that bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The trend is day runs come north while the night runs go south. Interesting to see if it holds at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Big changes on 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 12z GFS was deceiving, after ejecting an initial slug of precipitation northeast and looking good the storm itself is still well south and exits off the carolinas. Nothing like the old ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 12z GFS was deceiving, after ejecting an initial slug of precipitation northeast and looking good the storm itself is still well south and exits off the carolinas. Nothing like the old ggem But HUGE qpf differences from 6z. Big step Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 12z GFS was deceiving, after ejecting an initial slug of precipitation northeast and looking good the storm itself is still well south and exits off the carolinas. Nothing like the old ggem To be fair, the initial slug of precip is good for about 5-6 inches of snow in PHL, so it isn't insignificant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 12z GFS was deceiving, after ejecting an initial slug of precipitation northeast and looking good the storm itself is still well south and exits off the carolinas. Nothing like the old ggem lol, it changed dramatically at h5 from 0 and 6Z. i don't think many models are going to be close to the HECS that the gem was showing. Everything would have to phase and eject for that scenario to unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 GGEM shifted a good 100 miles south from 0z, pummels DC and more like the GFS in SEPA. Will south trend continue next runs and take us out of the game like the early march system or hold this course stay tuned... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Author Share Posted March 13, 2014 It looks like things are headed to where the main shortwave gets buried (as expected, the 00z GGEM was insane), but the initial slug of moisture could still be really good for our area, if you forget the 00z EURO existed we'd be looking at a 4-8" event with a chance for more. But it really sucks to know what could have been if the main shortwave came out like the GGEM had...that would have been my dream storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 4-8" not a bad deal for St. Patty's day, ECM next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 It looks like things are headed to where the main shortwave gets buried (as expected, the 00z GGEM was insane), but the initial slug of moisture could still be really good for our area, if you forget the 00z EURO existed we'd be looking at a 4-8" event with a chance for more. But it really sucks to know what could have been if the main shortwave came out like the GGEM had...that would have been my dream storm. Couldn't this GGEM run be correct though Highz? Show quite a bit of snow for Philly metro no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Author Share Posted March 13, 2014 Couldn't this GGEM run be correct though Highz? Show quite a bit of snow for Philly metro no? Yes, the GFS/NAM look fairly similar to it for that initial burst...but as a weather weenie, it is really frustrating to see how close we are to a HECS lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 It looks like things are headed to where the main shortwave gets buried (as expected, the 00z GGEM was insane), but the initial slug of moisture could still be really good for our area, if you forget the 00z EURO existed we'd be looking at a 4-8" event with a chance for more. But it really sucks to know what could have been if the main shortwave came out like the GGEM had...that would have been my dream storm. If the PV weakens at all, the main pulse of the storm could still easily make it up here. Fluctuations with the PV will determine as much as anything what impacts make it this far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 ukie further north and stronger at 72. No suppressed solutions this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 1"QPF gets to PHL. Not bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Author Share Posted March 13, 2014 Lots of big htis on the GFS ensembles....If we get 6-10" after March 15th that would summarize this winter to a tee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Yes, the GFS/NAM look fairly similar to it for that initial burst...but as a weather weenie, it is really frustrating to see how close we are to a HECS lol. Thanks! You've been on this for at least a week now. Could still work out to a HECS, but a SECS would be very good for mid March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Author Share Posted March 13, 2014 Thanks! You've been on this for at least a week now. Could still work out to a HECS, but a SECS would be very good for mid March Thanks man, I only post about threats in the 8-10 day range that I believe could produce snow for our area, once we get close 4-5 days I back off, the storm yesterday I backed off once we got to 4-5 days...This storm I haven't. Don't get me wrong with my last post, I'd still be extremely happy if we could pull off 6-8" in late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 GGEM shifted a good 100 miles south from 0z, pummels DC and more like the GFS in SEPA. Will south trend continue next runs and take us out of the game like the early march system or hold this course stay tuned...ggem only model to go south no? Everything else so far came north...awaiting the European Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 They're compromising...DC-PHL jackpot incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Author Share Posted March 13, 2014 ggem only model to go south no? Everything else so far came north...awaiting the European To be fair, the GGEM was the only model which brought the entire shortwave out of the south, so it was to be expected that it would likely come south, taken at face value the GGEM is still a MECS, and a 1-10+ year event for this time of year if it happened for Philly S NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocd Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I have a flight out of Philly on tuesday the 18th at 8am do you think it will be clear to fly out. Feel free to delete or move this post. Thank you. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I have a flight out of Philly on tuesday the 18th at 8am do you think it will be clear to fly out. Feel free to delete or move this post. Thank you. Sent from my SCH-I535 Tuesday should be OK. Maybe some residual issues from Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocd Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Tuesday should be OK. Maybe some residual issues from Monday.Thank youSent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 ECM edged north but not much more than mood flakes. Mood flakes don't cut it in march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Author Share Posted March 13, 2014 ECM edged north but not much more than mood flakes. Mood flakes don't cut it in march It did more than edge north IMO... It took a pretty significant jump towards the other solutions, and plenty of time to go...00z had light snow DC and they got 4-6" on this run, its Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 ECM edged north but not much more than mood flakes. Mood flakes don't cut it in march a step in rhe right direction anyway it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I agree. More than a little edge north on the Euro and the Canadian went bonkers. Seems like we may have one more shot at the record or may be not. But at least it will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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