DarthDoppler Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Well, not lately One could even say "the season" is over. Meteorological winter ended a couple of days ago. I believe the pattern has certainly changed enough to make whatever happened earlier this winter a moot point......not that it can't change whenever it wants anyway. Out latitude/elevation barely gets what qualifies as "winter weather" to begin with, let alone when the sun starts it's march towards summer. One has to go well up into Canada to find temperatures we had just a week ago! (Hudson Bay) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Well, not lately then i guess we are due Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Highs, snow map for far south eastern NJ from 12 Euro? Or just type it plz. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 12z EC set-up seemed a bit off to me with the set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 One could even say "the season" is over. Meteorological winter ended a couple of days ago. I believe the pattern has certainly changed enough to make whatever happened earlier this winter a moot point......not that it can't change whenever it wants anyway. Out latitude/elevation barely gets what qualifies as "winter weather" to begin with, let alone when the sun starts it's march towards summer. One has to go well up into Canada to find temperatures we had just a week ago! (Hudson Bay) I haven't seen a mean map, but just from how things have gone lately and the way the maps have looked, it seems like the trough axis has been too far east for you guys to cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I'd bag this potential event (unless major) to have below average Spring/Summer temps. Dread the allergy season kicking in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I'd bag this potential event (unless major) to have below average Spring/Summer temps. Dread the allergy season kicking in... Great Lakes hanging on to ice in spots into May might help to keep a lid on temps well into spring here. Can envision some late frosts this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 12z EC set-up seemed a bit off to me with the set-up. Would love to get a little analysis as to why, especially from a NWS meteorologist. (listening Ray?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Great Lakes hanging on to ice in spots into May might help to keep a lid on temps well into spring here. Can envision some late frosts this year. Depends on the pattern. If ridging takes over, the predominant air flow will switch more to a southwesterly direction and lingering snow/ice to the northwest will have little effect. If troughs persist however, it may stay even cooler than the troughs themselves would normally suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Would love to get a little analysis as to why, especially from a NWS meteorologist. (listening Ray?) When there are crickets it generally means one of two things...either no chance for a good storm or no one has a clue. In this case I think it's the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 ...Reading other regional threads though and ensembles from earlier, looks like now at least a 50/50 chance at snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Would love to get a little analysis as to why, especially from a NWS meteorologist. (listening Ray?) Here is a staff listing for reference at the Mount Holly office http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/staff.html. The system was a sheared out mess on the 12z EC with several low pressure centers. Not likely to have part of the system jump way ahead of the trough centered in the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 When there are crickets it generally means one of two things...either no chance for a good storm or no one has a clue. In this case I think it's the latter. I think it's that people are sleeping at 2:30 am, chances still the same today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Here is a staff listing for reference at the Mount Holly office http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/staff.html. The system was a sheared out mess on the 12z EC with several low pressure centers. Not likely to have part of the system jump way ahead of the trough centered in the Ohio Valley. Thanks for your reasoning and the staff listing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I think it's that people are sleeping at 2:30 am, chances still the same today. I understand but he asked his question before 9pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 This threat is dead fwiw. Winter is finally over and what a solid winter we had! Bring on severe season :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 GGEM goes BOOM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Right on cue of Ralphs wish-casting post, this GGEM shows the GFS northern branch bias in play, looks like a big hit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Speaking as a met, I think we're exhausted from this winter, and maybe also demoralized a bit after the March 3rd fiasco. No one is eager to discuss a threat that's still nearly a week away when we did so bad on one just a couple days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 This threat is dead fwiw. Winter is finally over and what a solid winter we had! Bring on severe season :-) How is this threat dead? You realize the EURO ens/GFS ens/ and now the 12z GGEM looks really good....I don't think you realize how close the EURO was to a legit beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Speaking as a met, I think we're exhausted from this winter, and maybe also demoralized a bit after the March 3rd fiasco. No one is eager to discuss a threat that's still nearly a week away when we did so bad on one just a couple days out.+1 and we can't hug 1 model that shows a good solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 +1 and we can't hug 1 model that shows a good solution And you can't hug a model that doesn't show one....The EURO was so close last night, the ensembles look great....To annouce the threat is dead is simply way premature...The overall setup is there, its a good pattern for a march snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I dont understand people complaining about this thread or discussion, if you think it is premature, or are tired of winter or whatever, then don't read it. And if you think winter is over, great, but it is laughable to call a threat dead 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I dont understand people complaining about this thread or discussion, if you think it is premature, or are tired of winter or whatever, then don't read it. And if you think winter is over, great, but it is laughable to call a threat dead 6 days out. This Because people are "tired of winter" a storm doesn't have a chance??? It's like those tv news anchors saying "please no more white stuff" when they intro weather person. This is a weather site and a thread for a possible next week storm. Appreciate the work Highz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 What's six inches (CMC/GFS) difference in snowfall accumulations between friends on Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Euro leans towards GGEM. I can hear the cheering from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Euro leans towards GGEM. I can hear the cheering from here. Oh why not got one more in me LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Euro leans towards GGEM. I can hear the cheering from here. Hooray! Hooray! Meh I'm still not buying anything white at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I dont understand people complaining about this thread or discussion, if you think it is premature, or are tired of winter or whatever, then don't read it. And if you think winter is over, great, but it is laughable to call a threat dead 6 days out.but the gfs is leading the way...looks like just a "threat" for now, nothing more nothing less so I guess technically its not dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 GFS is to far south, always is at this range but this may still go OTS or be to warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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