Yorkpa25 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 they bumped south to my eyes. Nowcasting, who cares what models say at this point. They have been useless with this storm to begin with. I'll just be happy with enough snow to whiten the ground. Never expected much and still do not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Nowcasting, who cares what models say at this point. They have been useless with this storm to begin with. I'll just be happy with enough snow to whiten the ground. Never expected much and still do not. You don't understand model freaks, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 18z NAM looks to be close to 12z, perhaps a hair north but not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 NAM looks very very similar. A tick wetter in southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 18Z NAM ticked a little further north, and a little wetter further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 WSW expanded to New Castle, Cecil, Salem, Gloucester, Atlantic, Salem, Cumberland, Ocean, and Southeastern Burlington counties for 4-6 inches of snow. Camden, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Nowcasting, who cares what models say at this point. They have been useless with this storm to begin with. I'll just be happy with enough snow to whiten the ground. Never expected much and still do not. Models generally become more and more accurate up until the event - less time "left" means less error propagation can occur. So, this last shift in the models is absolutely worth paying attention to, whereas a 25-50 mile shift 4 days out is basically noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 they bumped south to my eyes. you're right, they did come south some, not much diff around PHL though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 What is the NWS seeing to justify their 8-10" forecast for Sussex and cape may? Just currious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 What is the NWS seeing to justify their 8-10" forecast for Sussex and cape may? Just currious Go back through this thread and take a gander at the clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 RGEM looks like about 3-4 inches for PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattMal88 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 What is the NWS seeing to justify their 8-10" forecast for Sussex and cape may? Just currious Also take a look at the 4km nam it shows a nice band setting up right in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 GFS looks a bit drier than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 GFS looks a bit drier than 12z Furthest south/driest run since before 12Z yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Furthest south/driest run since before 12Z yesterday Yup, dont know how much to make of it at this point. Always a nail-biter with these tight gradients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 GFS is a whiff. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Its such a big change I'm inclined to dismiss it without a second run... i.e. 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Its such a big change I'm inclined to dismiss it without a second run... i.e. 0Z. I guess watch some of the short range stuff, RAP, HRRR to see if they are particularly dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 RAP did back off a little for PHL as well so there might be something to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 0Z NAM has 3" at PHL, a half inch at TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 0Z NAM has 3" at PHL, a half inch at TTN. Can we get .1 up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Can we get .1 up here? NAM says maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 0Z NAM has 3" at PHL, a half inch at TTN. I would be socked if Philly gets more than an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I would be socked if Philly gets more than an inch Right in the kisser? Seriously though, there are bands in West Virginia and Maryland which are trying to overcome the dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 The NWS snow maps have been going more north in the past few hours. Went from 1-2 to 2-4, very close to 4-6. Just realized I was in the WSW. I really hope it gets more humid quick though. Only a humidity of 34%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Its such a big change I'm inclined to dismiss it without a second run... i.e. 0Z. How about now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 How about now? It recovered a bit but not even half of what it had... so yeah, a little more believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 What is the NWS seeing to justify their 8-10" forecast for Sussex and cape may? Just currious Sorry, I'm stretched thin these days. The fsu site on fgen forcing has been golden on predicting banding this winter; also all the soundings in your area had omega and snow growth ratios in the cross hairs (greater than 10:1 water equivalent snows). This doesnt always geographically work close, may not work next winter as well, but it looks like it did ok this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Sorry, I'm stretched thin these days. The fsu site on fgen forcing has been golden on predicting banding this winter; also all the soundings in your area had omega and snow growth ratios in the cross hairs (greater than 10:1 water equivalent snows). This doesnt always geographically work close, may not work next winter as well, but it looks like it did ok this time.looking out my window looks like a foot plus so id say so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Where does this storm fall in terms of record keeping? For March 17th, I imagine this is a top 3 event and top 5 event for the entire month since 1893, in Cape May County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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