famartin Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 FWIW, and it may not be much, the NAM is verifying better along the northern edge than the GFS further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Theoretically, yes. Climatologically, the average latest measurable snowfall at PHL is tomorrow. Ray, I noticed you used the phrase "average latest" instead of "latest" as I usually see posted. You probably remember from last year that I think climo is way overused. If people would think in terms of "average" I think it would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 FWIW, and it may not be much, the NAM is verifying better along the northern edge than the GFS further west. Ray, did you make a forecast for TTN on this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Ray, did you make a forecast for TTN on this one? New Euro crept slightly north from 0Z but still pretty NAM-like. I'll go Coating-2 inches for the Trenton area. Model range there is nothing to about 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Looks good to me, good luck with your forecast. I think i'd go a little higher for PHL itself, maybe about 2-3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Looks good to me, good luck with your forecast. I think i'd go a little higher for PHL itself, maybe about 2-3 inches. I'll wait til the new Euro comes in but I'll probably keep it. Was a little worried about the northern creep but the obs further west give me pause about making any upward adjustments. Yeah, PHL will be higher for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I'm more inclined to side with the NAM on this. IIRC it did better on the last southern system we had. So basically I expect nothing. These storms have been like 2010 suppression and gradient, only worse of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I'm more inclined to side with the NAM on this. IIRC it did better on the last southern system we had. So basically I expect nothing. These storms have been like 2010 suppression and gradient, only worse of course. I'm interested to see if PHL gets the 2.7" needed to move this winter ahead of 95-96. Going to be real close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Theoretically, yes. Climatologically, the average latest measurable snowfall at PHL is tomorrow. I started thinking about this and thought of the April 20th date (not sure if that's the latest or not), and imagined a spread of dates ranging from earliest to latest, and while I'm sure that it's "normal" for the last snowfall to occur some time in March, I can imagine that there have been a couple of winters that really skew the average, like 1972-73, with no measurable snow at PHL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 How accurate has the RGEM been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 How accurate has the RGEM been? IIRC it did a good job with the 3/3 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 How accurate has the RGEM been? Not sure. Everyone here (on the boards) sings its praises, but I haven't tracked it closely enough to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 UKMET came north some. Will be curious if Euro follows the rest of the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 UKMET came north some. Will be curious if Euro follows the rest of the globals. Sure seems to be the trend....we'll know shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 16, 2014 Author Share Posted March 16, 2014 Looks like EURO is making a slight bump north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Wow, UKMET probably too far north at this point. Has 6 inch line up to about PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/regional/northeast/current/northeast.vis.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Wow, UKMET probably too far north at this point. Has 6 inch line up to about PHL. It's been pretty erratic the past several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I started thinking about this and thought of the April 20th date (not sure if that's the latest or not), and imagined a spread of dates ranging from earliest to latest, and while I'm sure that it's "normal" for the last snowfall to occur some time in March, I can imagine that there have been a couple of winters that really skew the average, like 1972-73, with no measurable snow at PHL? Median is March 18th, so the mean and median in this case are quite close. There are a lot of years it was in March, some when it was in February and some when it was in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Euro came N some, looks like a couple of inches in PHL/south. Edit--maybe a couple of inches up to TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Euro is like the RGEM map I posted earlier, except down south (south Jersey/Delaware) where the Euro is drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Euro is like the RGEM map I posted earlier. Yup, unlike 3/3 the trends are more positive as the storm approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 FWIW, Euro is also too wet along the north edge further west, so probably something to keep in mind. As Tony likes to say though, "Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future trends". Anyway, no changes in my thoughts for TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Median is March 18th, so the mean and median in this case are quite close. There are a lot of years it was in March, some when it was in February and some when it was in April. Thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 16, 2014 Author Share Posted March 16, 2014 Who knows, maybe we'll see some mesoscale band form and Philly will get a foot, it happened in Dec....... Or not, still like 2-3" in the city though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemCountyNJ Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Mount Holly just dropped WWA and posted WSWarning for 4-6" for my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 WSW expanded to New Castle, Cecil, Salem, Gloucester, Atlantic, Salem, Cumberland, Ocean, and Southeastern Burlington counties for 4-6 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 WWA here as of 2:44pm....2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 SREF's look about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 16, 2014 Author Share Posted March 16, 2014 SREF's look about the same. they bumped south to my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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