snowfiend420 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 He tweeted the NAM is the worst of all the models... I'm assuming he means snow total wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Got it! How come bernie rayno says not to use the NAM ... is he saying just for this storm or in general... I thought the NAM was a good model when its this close to the storm? NAM can be (and as you have seen, has been) flaky until you're right on top of the storm. The NAM *can* be good further out, but its hard to trust. That said, it has Euro support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfiend420 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Thanks for answering! Hopefully I'll get the 1-2" forecasted! Fingers crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 too tired to look....but any other models showing the strong, inland coastal NAM is showing at 72 / 84? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 too tired to look....but any other models showing the strong, inland coastal NAM is showing at 72 / 84? Not a single one I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I think we just got nam'd for two runs in a row. Its rain for philly but thats one heck of a potent noreaster in the late nam panels. Umm, I'll go out on a limb and say its overdone lol. That kicker should have bumped it east. Nam you're drunk...go home :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I think we just got nam'd for two runs in a row. Its rain for philly but thats one heck of a potent noreaster in the late nam panels. Umm, I'll go out on a limb and say its overdone lol. That kicker should have bumped it east. Nam you're drunk...go home :-) The Nam has gone Turbo and should be unplugged!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The CRAS is a little extreme showing with alot of it's features but note the SE Ridge flexing at 66 hours (below) and then a partial phase with the Northern disturbance in the later panels. Point I am making is it should be watched for the system to possibly come up the coast: Sneaky system like we've seen this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I would think the higher elevations would be sitting pretty in a setup like this. Wonder if it can get any late support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Btw....round one: http://cup.aos.wisc.edu/GIFA/8140SFC1.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 GFS really different than the NAM for tomorrow night/Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 0Z GFS is just a smidge south from 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 0Z GFS is just a smidge south from 18Z. yeah ,almost no difference from 18z. I guess I would lean more towards NAM just because it looks a lot like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 SREF is arguing that the slp will be closer to the coast in regards to rd 2 (miller a): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 SREF is arguing that the slp will be closer to the coast in regards to rd 2 (miller a): SREF that far out is about as reliable as the NAM that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 SREF that far out is about as reliable as the NAM that far out. Did I read somewhere that the sref generally consists of the NAM ensembles or its run off the same data or something? Would explain why it's also onto round 2 a little bit. A ton weaker as expected than the nam though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Did I read somewhere that the sref generally consists of the NAM ensembles or its run off the same data or something? Would explain why it's also onto round 2 a little bit. A ton weaker as expected than the nam though. Kind of, its not quite that simple. Note that the SREF run usually corresponds to the NAM run 3 hours earlier... so the 21Z SREF corresponds to the 18Z NAM, the 03Z SREF corresponds to the 0Z NAM, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 GGEM looks a smidge south, UKMET is WAY south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 GGEM looks a smidge south, UKMET is WAY south. March Madness Manic Suppression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Euro is a bit north. Overall, just about all guidance trended towards each other tonight, as opposed to trending in one overall direction or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Euro is a bit north. Overall, just about all guidance trended towards each other tonight, as opposed to trending in one overall direction or another. Looks more than a bit north. The QPF is almost double 12Z down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Looks more than a bit north. The QPF is almost double 12Z down here. 1) My comments generally refer to Philly metro, not Baltimore. 2) The extreme gradient in this system makes small horizontal adjustments seem large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 1) My comments generally refer to Philly metro, not Baltimore. 2) The extreme gradient in this system makes small horizontal adjustments seem large. Thanks Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014 DEZ002>004-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ023-024-162100- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0009.140317T0000Z-140317T1600Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0008.140317T0000Z-140317T1600Z/ KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE- CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH... CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 800 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL NOON ON MONDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE MARYLAND COUNTIES OF QUEEN ANNE`S, TALBOT AND CAROLINE, THE DELAWARE COUNTIES OF KENT AND SUSSEX, AND CAPE MAY COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW THIS EVENING. THE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING. * WINDS...NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 OR 30 MPH. * VISIBILITY...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S DURING MUCH OF THE SNOW EVENT. * IMPACTS...THE SNOW WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. THE SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. && $$ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 322 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014 MDZ021>025-161530- /O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0006.140317T0000Z-140317T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0005.140317T0000Z-140317T2100Z/ DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMBRIDGE...SALISBURY...CRISFIELD... PRINCESS ANNE...SNOW HILL...OCEAN CITY 322 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * AREAS AFFECTED: THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. * HAZARDS: SNOW AND SLEET. * ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET. * TEMPERATURES: UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. * WINDS: NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. * TIMING: TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS: ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. TRAVEL WILL BE DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH ON MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 16, 2014 Author Share Posted March 16, 2014 6z RGEM def bumped N...I think the city could see 2-3". I'm amazed the NAM keeps holding its idea for the main ULL to come up the coast...that would be wild...6z RGEM @ 54 hours actually kind of suggested it'd be close as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattMal88 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I like the idea of the miller A follow up just because models didnt show this 5+ days out and sneaky storms have seemed to work out much better than storms shown in the LR. I know only the NAM/Srefs are showing this right now but who knows maybe well get one more surprise this winter. Would be a fitting end to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 16, 2014 Author Share Posted March 16, 2014 I like the idea of the miller A follow up just because models didnt show this 5+ days out and sneaky storms have seemed to work out much better than storms shown in the LR. I know only the NAM/Srefs are showing this right now but who knows maybe well get one more surprise this winter. Would be a fitting end to it. Just because the storm comes up the coast doesn't mean it'd be snow. By the time it does on the NAM the HP has moved out, so it likely be mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 the euro last week had a wednesday system but then lost it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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