_AR_ Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Pretty crazy to have a storm crush areas south of the Mason Dixon in mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfiend420 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Its interesting that DC will have had most of their snowfall in march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 More than words... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM is out to lunch....RGEM seems steady & its nothing like the NAM...Imagine the NAM will shift S at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 12Z for comparison...yeah, I'd say that is "snowier" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM is out to lunch....RGEM seems steady & its nothing like the NAM...Imagine the NAM will shift S at 00z. But the snow maps are so pretty, out to lunch, no way! j/k, who knows, but I think the good news is that we are not having a massive shift south with each run like we saw 2 weeks ago. If you are currently north of the modeled precip, your odds are much better than they were then at this point. I think that's the only takeaway I have at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Remember, ratios will not be 10:1... Why not? Bc it's March? Sun angle doesn't affect radial, if will affect accums. The temp profiles are supportive of 10:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 18Z GFS essentially the same as 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfiend420 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 So the GFS is slightly north as well? Or is the precip field just expanded? Are these 18z runs reliable? Or will the 0z run be more reliable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Yes the same. Some consistency now. Good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfiend420 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The 18z NAM & GFS both have southern delco between 3-6" is this possible or is a 1-3" event a better call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfiend420 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 But the euro has been pretty consistent keeping this storm completely south of Philly and even Wilmington right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 18Z GFS essentially the same as 12Z. Ray, do you think GFS a little quick bringing in precip or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Part 2 on the NAM. looks like freezing rain. The only model so far inland. (chuck it out) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Part 2 on the NAM. looks like freezing rain. The only model so far inland. (chuck it out) Its also very warm... you might cash in but probably no one south of 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 GFS at 240 looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 GFS at 240 looks great. been there for a few runs now. You should start a thread. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark304 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Pretty crazy to have a storm crush areas south of the Mason Dixon in mid March. LOL Maryland and Virginia aren't Mississippi. Most of Western and SW Virginia averages more snow than PHL in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfiend420 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Epaweather issued a snow map with basically nothing for philly down to cape may and over to baltimore..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 Part 2 on the NAM. looks like freezing rain. The only model so far inland. (chuck it out) If you believe that I have a bridge I have for sale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 GFS at 240 looks great. I've actually spotted this on the models today across the board. Storm or no storm, most of the models agree in fairly chilly air in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfiend420 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Its interesting seeing all the different snow maps coming out and how insanely different they are especially for the DC area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Its interesting seeing all the different snow maps coming out and how insanely different they are especially for the DC area!Here's mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Above is March 3rd am radar as precip was pulling away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 LOL Maryland and Virginia aren't Mississippi. Most of Western and SW Virginia averages more snow than PHL in March. In the mountains, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 SREF's bumped up north some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 NAM is a complete whiff except for extreme SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfiend420 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 So nam went back south SREF went north .... basically we won't know until it happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 So nam went back south SREF went north .... basically we won't know until it happens? SREF tends to follow the NAM. 21Z SREF is equivalent of the 18Z NAM, so I would expect the 03Z SREF to go back south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfiend420 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Got it! How come bernie rayno says not to use the NAM ... is he saying just for this storm or in general... I thought the NAM was a good model when its this close to the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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