GD0815 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Yeah, it actually surprisingly jumped N I understand today wasnt the best day for trends, but this threat is not dead for PHL area, although you wouldnt know that from this thread. I know a lot of PHL people are posting in NYC but what is true for them isn't necessarily true for us with this storm--we may still be too far north, but definitely in better position than NY as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Which LR model will verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Which LR model will verify? The one that shows the least snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Euro is bone dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 6Z NAM is drier than the 0Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Didn't think it was possible to be much drier than the Euro... This a done deal...dead. Go out and enjoy the nice day people....enjoy the corned beef Monday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Guidance definitely south for Euro and NAM. If it keeps trending congrats Va Beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Didn't think it was possible to be much drier than the Euro... This a done deal...dead. Go out and enjoy the nice day people....enjoy the corned beef Monday! 06z GFS is north compared to last few runs. Lol Brings decent snow into South Jersey and some to Philly. This is why we should just talk about what models show and hold off on "game over" stuff for at least another day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 06z GFS is north compared to last few runs. Lol Brings decent snow into South Jersey and some to Philly. This is why we should just talk about what models show and hold off on "game over" stuff for at least another day. To each his own....I'm sure as hell not going to stay in on a weekend w/nice weather and track/follow every model for a possible inch in mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 To each his own....I'm sure as hell not going to stay in on a weekend w/nice weather and track/follow every model for a possible inch in mid March. I'm working so it's a nice diversion...lol. Would be playing golf if not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 06 gfs is more robust. 0.5 to M/D line 0.25 to Trenton. Reverses several cycles of drying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The EURO had this for days in the LR, then the CMC. Models have really played us the last half of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 06 gfs is more robust. 0.5 to M/D line 0.25 to Trenton. Reverses several cycles of drying. Model frenzy continues. Latest GFS shows 8" in a large part of South Jersey. Several inches in Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The EURO had this for days in the LR, then the CMC. Models have really played us the last half of winter. We are 0-4 in storm chances for the month. Ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Model frenzy continues. Latest GFS shows 8" in a large part of South Jersey. Several inches in Philly SNJ would not get 8" from as modeled 0.5" of qpf on 06Z GFS in mid to late march regardless of whether over night or day event. Your model analysis is poor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfiend420 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 This is one of those storms where Philly could get absolutely nothing, some snow showers, or a few inches and no one will know until it happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfiend420 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Let it be a surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I was popping in for a quick update, and the sudden lack of chatter in the thread is about as detailed an update as I could have hoped for. It told me all I needed to know. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I was popping in for a quick update, and the sudden lack of chatter in the thread is about as detailed an update as I could have hoped for. It told me all I needed to know. Lol. There are some good signs and bad signs for south Jersey... NAM is still pretty far south but not quite as bad as 6Z. GFS is wetter, a decent storm. UKMET does also show a decent storm for south Jersey. RGEM is between the GFS and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I was popping in for a quick update, and the sudden lack of chatter in the thread is about as detailed an update as I could have hoped for. It told me all I needed to know. Lol. I'm actually rather surprised at the lack of discussion, the GFS still shows like 3-6" around the city and seems to be slowly creeping northward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I'm actually rather surprised at the lack of discussion, the GFS still shows like 3-6" around the city and seems to be slowly creeping northward 12Z GFS was actually a little south from 6Z's big bump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 12Z GFS was actually a little south from 6Z's big bump north. True but they are very close and much improved from yesterday, with still more time to perhaps come north again. I think we are still in the game at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 True but they are very close and much improved from yesterday, with still more time to perhaps come north again. I think we are still in the game at this point. If "in the game" includes 1-3", then yeah, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 If "in the game" includes 1-3", then yeah, sure. At this point I'd be content with just 1-2 inches. I just want to see those pretty white things fall from the sky one more time before I start playing golf for 4 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 If "in the game" includes 1-3", then yeah, sure. In mid-March, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 SNJ would not get 8" from as modeled 0.5" of qpf on 06Z GFS in mid to late march regardless of whether over night or day event. Your model analysis is poor Troll if you like it's fine but the 6z GFS does show South Jrz up to 8" and Philly several. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 If "in the game" includes 1-3", then yeah, sure. I think at this point it is fair to say PHL area is at least in the game. my forecast would be 1-2 or something like that but just a little bump northward and we could get into the decent stuff. The point is that it is at least on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I think at this point it is fair to say PHL area is at least in the game. my forecast would be 1-2 or something like that but just a little bump northward and we could get into the decent stuff. The point is that it is at least on the table. I could see more than 1-3" for PHL itself, my 1-3 comment was for his location in Northampton Township. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I could see more than 1-3" for PHL itself, my 1-3 comment was for his location in Northampton Township. got it, fair point. I think this setup has a little more room to come north a bit than 3/3 but time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I could see more than 1-3" for PHL itself, my 1-3 comment was for his location in Northampton Township. Yeah my bad Ray I was referring to PHL, northern areas obviously won't do as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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