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March 17-19th Potential Storm.


Heisy

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I still think the 00z NAM is overdone...Unless the EURO/GFS come in wetter, I think 00z NAM is BEST CASE scenario for us... 

I know you had your heart set on a big event, but I do think this threat can still be salvaged for us.  The NAM still gets us into a nice band for a while, and hey, it will definitely be cold.  We could still get a decent and really unusually cold March event.

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I still think the 00z NAM is overdone...Unless the EURO/GFS come in wetter, I think 00z NAM is BEST CASE scenario for us...

Lots of talk on Mid Atlantic thread that this is starting to look like a Miller A. AND that at hour 84 round two looking primed to come up coast. Hmmmm....

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GFS is still a qpf outlier. Could it end up being right??? Sure, but it is an outlier. Still has cold air in place though. Let's see what the rest of the 00z suite shows.

Outlier compared to what?  Differences between the GFS, EC and GGEM are pretty small at this point.

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RGEM closer to NAM. And if we look at entire 00Z suite at the very least it's "incomplete". Let's see what more consistent GGEM so far this winter and King Euro say

You must've missed the hard right the 12Z GGEM took.  That, btw, destroys any semblance of "consistency" it had.  Right now the GFS is more consistent than the GGEM.

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