Maximum lawman Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 From a climatology perspective, the idea that this would be a miss to the south this time of year is pretty head-scratching. Historically, how many mid-March storms have done this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 From a climatology perspective, the idea that this would be a miss to the south this time of year is pretty head-scratching. Historically, how many mid-March storms have done this? Just an example of why climatology means squat concerning any specific synoptic setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 we're within the range where models start to get a good vibe on how things will play out. Thank you for concisely explaining why LR are a WOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I think its way too early to call. The precip shield is very close. Could shift either way. That being said, its a spring storm, its hard enough to get these things to work during the regular winter much less spring. I don't take this storm seriously, haven't been tracking it either. Give me a day off from work, or who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Models ticked north yesterday and came back south today. Still a solid event for southern parts of area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Models ticked north yesterday and came back south today. Still a solid event for southern parts of area You're talking about the GFS and Euro. The GGEM was solidly north for the last few days but has just taken a hard right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Euro 1" ABE 3" PHL and you know damn well those numbers won't accumulate Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Really didn't think this would end up similar to March 2-3 re: QPF amounts and storm track, but that's the way it seems to be heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Really didn't think this would end up similar to March 2-3 re: QPF amounts and storm track, but that's the way it seems to be heading. I don't see a reason to panic until after 00z. One set of runs has everyone jumping ship. Facebook is unreal right now. Model hugging suicide Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 can we not turn this into a bipolar, debbie-downer nyc model update thread... many runs to go. +1000000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 What is mt holly thinking here with the snow map? Guess they are relying heavily on NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 What is mt holly thinking here with the snow map? I'm not gonna sit here and bash NWS. Lets just say I respectfully disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 if they are looking at the nam 12z then those numbers are too low. tonight/tomorrow 0z/12z runs are key at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Here's Glenn's 4pm initial thoughts. If you look at the scale, I would imagine in/around Philly 2-4", 1-3" in the lighter shade N....etc. More S but mixing issues I would think. He didn't say about amounts, just a guess. At least some of the precip falls at night which is a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 18z NAM gives PHL 1.2" and DYL 1" QPF., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 looks like another NAM clown run incoming... After the foot of snow...even part 2 would have a chance, if verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The 18Z NAM shifted south ever so slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The gfs looked like The 12z gfs.. Maybe slightly more south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The gfs looked like The 12z gfs.. Maybe slightly more south No maybe, its definitely south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 No maybe, its definitely south. agreed, but I dont think it looked like the 12zgfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Question, any remember what the NAM was in this range for the beginning of March bust? I think it was south the whole time, any one remember? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 What is mt holly thinking here with the snow map? Guess they are relying heavily on NAM? I'm not gonna sit here and bash NWS. Lets just say I respectfully disagree. They're not living and dying by a model run or a single model suite. They're giving their forecast based upon the information they have--ALL the information they have, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 They're not living and dying by a model run or a single model suite. They're giving their forecast based upon the information they have. Yep, everyone here jumped shift after ONE model suite. It it continues to do it then I'll agree with y'all. Otherwise writing this off already is hogwash Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Yep, everyone here jumped shift after ONE model suite. It it continues to do it then I'll agree with y'all. Otherwise writing this off already is hogwashSent from my iPad Every model has shifted south....everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 We haven't all jumped ship - some of us are hanging in there and waiting to see what the next model runs show. It was disappointing seeing the trends today, on all the models as Hazwoper pointed out. I think there's a bit of deja vu feeling from 2 weeks ago also, even though the dynamics are different. We'll be okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Every model has shifted south....everyone 18z snow maps are still pretty bullish. So south actually keeps rain chances less if on northern edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 What's the consensus for qpf for PHL now? Around .20 to .25? (For Sunday night) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 What's the consensus for qpf for PHL now? Around .20 to .25? (For Sunday night) not quite at a consensus point. also there is at least a possibility of getting clipped by the 2nd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 not quite at a consensus point. also there is at least a possibility of getting clipped by the 2nd wave. Okay, a range then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Okay, a range then? well, from almost nothing (Euro, GGEM) to the NAM, which is about an inch of liquid. stay tuned on the NAM though, the latest run doesnt look so hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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