Heisy Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Let's get some good mojo going. THIS is the storm that could deliver for our area before winter is over. 00z EURO absolutely buries Philly to NYC with 10-20" of snow. The 00z GFS was close, but closed off the ULL too fast. The amount of ensemble support on the GFS for some kind of storm in this range is absolutely astonishing for this range; The GFS has had this storm for 3-4 runs now, CMC had it at 12z FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 You must be excited....two threads!! But yeah, would like another bash then shut it down. Damn car needs a cleaning inside and out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Let's get some good mojo going. THIS is the storm that could deliver for our area before winter is over. 00z EURO absolutely buries Philly to NYC with 10-20" of snow. The 00z GFS was close, but closed off the ULL too fast. The amount of ensemble support on the GFS for some kind of storm in this range is absolutely astonishing for this range; The GFS has had this storm for 3-4 runs now, CMC had it at 12z FYI. I thought u were done for the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Since Ray didn't create this thread we have a chance! Looking nice on current model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Told u all! Every storm is busting! No more snow for Philly!!! This is the problem with this sub forum. BS comments that people have to scroll through without and scientific or meteorological Input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 This is the problem with this sub forum. BS comments that people have to scroll through without and scientific or meteorological Input. It is one 10th grader. Put him on ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 Most likely this is the last threat for the winter, might as well start a thread, what harm can it cause? This started showing up on the EURO the night before last....We're obviously a long way out, but lets keep this thread positive! Yes Ralph, I was done until I started seeing model support for this event yesterday. Even the 6z GFS which had a weaker wave was still able to get snow into our area. We have better cold air to work with based on the pattern, and a lovely PNA ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Taken face value of ECMWF, this is an all timer and would surpass any blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemCountyNJ Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Well, it would be a great way to celebrate my 24th wedding anniversary . I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Have we started a thread to track the first heat wave too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Have we started a thread to track the first heat wave too... +100000000000000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Since I will be in Florida from the 15th until the 22nd...this event will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 +10000 0000000000 each subforum has a thread for this potential event, its the last chance for snow in the city and is showing up on all data...yeah its obviously far out but the overall pattern is much more conducive for snow than the one this week. Well still need good timing etc, but I dont understand the big deal with a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 each subforum has a thread for this potential event, its the last chance for snow in the city and is showing up on all data...yeah its obviously far out but the overall pattern is much more conducive for snow than the one this week. Well still need good timing etc, but I dont understand the big deal with a thread. Remember once upon a time where the one this coming week looked like "a much more conducive pattern"? Yeah, maybe it'll still end up snowing some... Also, its not the last threat, just the latest one we know about. I don't support threat threads any further out than 1 week. We're not quite there with this one. We're still far better than the NYC forums 1200 posts for a threat still several days away that looks like mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Did today's 12z euro still have it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Remember once upon a time where the one this coming week looked like "a much more conducive pattern"? Yeah, maybe it'll still end up snowing some... Also, its not the last threat, just the latest one we know about. I don't support threat threads any further out than 1 week. We're not quite there with this one. We're still far better than the NYC forums 1200 posts for a threat still several days away that looks like mostly rain. This forum is almost dead as it is, I don't think it is a big deal if people want to post about something that is a long-shot or down the road. If someone finds this too speculative to be worthwhile, just don't read it and/or don't post in the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 each subforum has a thread for this potential event Except, inexplicably, NYC! Granted, I hesitate to call that a win, for the same reasons Ray outlined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 each subforum has a thread for this potential event, its the last chance for snow in the city and is showing up on all data...yeah its obviously far out but the overall pattern is much more conducive for snow than the one this week. Well still need good timing etc, but I dont understand the big deal with a thread. Except, inexplicably, NYC! Granted, I hesitate to call that a win, for the same reasons Ray outlined. PA/NY doesn't either...then again, we just need one thread for all our regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 0Z Euro is suppressed way south and east. Manages to put down an inch or so but the low track is way southeast of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 This forum is almost dead as it is, I don't think it is a big deal if people want to post about something that is a long-shot or down the road. If someone finds this too speculative to be worthwhile, just don't read it and/or don't post in the thread. We do have something called a "medium range" thread. Though it seems to hardly get used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 0Z Euro is suppressed way south and east. Manages to put down an inch or so but the low track is way southeast of the benchmark. At 168 it split off some of the energy, if it would of rounded the base of the trough it would of been really good...threat still very much alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 At 168 it split off some of the energy, if it would of rounded the base of the trough it would of been really good...threat still very much alive.hmmm, where have we heard this before? Not trying to be negative but it seems this late winter has featured more of these waves splitting as we near the event. As u said this can and will change countless times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 poof!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Happens every time a day 8+ threat thread is started. Maybe it will return in the short-medium range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Every potential wintry/snow event since Feb 23 has diminished or died completely as we got closer to it. This of course is still very much on the table since it's still a week away, but I wouldn't at all be surprised to see this be all rain or a complete miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 Idk why the poof? EURO dumps on us, the GFS is supressed as expected, the GGEM is real close...EURO is like 8+ for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Idk why the poof? EURO dumps on us, the GFS is supressed as expected, the GGEM is real close...EURO is like 8+ for the city. Because I am going to side with climo. Not saying no storm but no snow atm. Also you are still 7 days out which is borderline fantasy even in the dead of winter let alone March 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Happens every time a day 8+ threat thread is started. Maybe it will return in the short-medium range? To be fair, and I know we all know this, but the weather will do what it will do. We can't chase it away or make it happen with a thread. At long leads it's not uncommon for models to lose a storm and bring it back, which is what may happen here. I am generally in favor of waiting until a threat looks more likely than not before making a thread, but at the same time, even within a week, it's difficult to know whether something will actually pan out. Given that it's March, we are getting fewer threats, and the pattern has seemed to support a potential big snow event, I was fine and am fine with this thread. It's too early to write it off, based on a couple of model runs. If it doesn't come back, it was nice to look at for a couple of days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 12z euro looks good at this point but i'm not looking at the runs this far out. (but you looked) Way too much time / many runs before this starts to lock into anything. Season is against us at this point but this season it has "wanted to snow" in the area many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Season is against us at this point but this season it has "wanted to snow" in the area many times. Well, not lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.