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At What Point Will You Accept the Existence/Non-Existence of AGW?

Jmister

By Jmister,
in Climate Change

What threshold of temperature change by 2050 and 2100 will cause you to admit in the existence/non-existence of AGW?  

16 members have voted

  1. 1. It is the year 2050. You finally admit AGW is occurring and is a global issue if the global temperature has risen by __ degrees C above the 1981-2010 mean:

    • 0 to 0.5
      2
    • 0.5 to 1.0
      0
    • 1.0 to 1.5
      1
    • 1.5 to 2.0
      2
    • 2.0 to 2.5
      4
    • 2.5 to 3.0
      0
    • >3.0
      1
    • Never - climate has changed rapidly in the past and this is nothing new!
      6

  2. 2. It is the year 2100. You finally admit AGW is occurring and is a major global issue if the global temperature has risen by __ degrees C above the 1981-2010 mean.

    • 0 to 2
      2
    • 2 to 4
      5
    • 4 to 6
      3
    • 6 to 8
      0
    • 8 to 10
      0
    • >10
      0
    • Never - climate has changed rapidly in the past and this is nothing new!
      6

  3. 3. It is the year 2050. You finally admit AGW is NOT a major global issue if the global temperature has changed by __ degrees C from the 1981-2010 mean.

    • < -1
      1
    • -1 to -0.5
      1
    • -0.5 to 0
      2
    • 0 to 0.5
      3
    • 0.5 to 1
      6
    • Never - AGW is already a global issue and will continue to be!
      3

  4. 4. It is the year 2100. You finally admit AGW is NOT a major global issue if the global temperature has changed by __ degrees C from the 1981-2010 mean:

    • < -2
      1
    • -2 to 0
      2
    • 0 to 2
      10
    • 2 to 4
      0
    • 4 to 6
      0
    • 6 to 8
      1
    • Never - AGW is already a global issue and will continue to be!
      2

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LocoAko

LocoAko

Posted
Posted

Ugh... no it's not. It's really not at all like that.

 

As a meteorologist, it bothers me that so many other meteorologists try to extrapolate their ideas of "uncertainty" in weather forecasting to the science of climatology. A weather forecast is a forecast of the variability, the "noise". A climate forecast is a forecast of the trends, the "mean". The uncertainties in the two aspects are not comparable.

 

Why even bother? 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I agree . We're looking at two totally different behavioral domains. There is no "uncertainty" in the radiative forcing increase via increasing CO2/CH4....the system must heat up to a significant degree. At least initially.

That said, I'm sure there are additional forcings and feedback loops that we have yet to uncover. My studies are mostly in paleoclimate, and there are a number of large historical climate swings that still need explaining. We can track these swings to the precession and obliquity harmonics, but their very abrupt nature suggests an amplifying mechanism that is very sensitive to the equator-to-pole thermal gradient/distribution of insolation.

As Shakespeare said, the past is prologue. I think that applies here very well.

 

I think he was trying to get at some of those uncertainties...or stuff we don't quite have an answer for. You guys are being a little hard on him..I'm sure he knows the basic physics on CO2.

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