Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 how do you view the control run http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/xecmwf_ma.php Bottom 7 links. Control is a big hit for southern half of va and far n nc. 2-4" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 if we get screwed by a suppressed storm in Mid March....then it was really never meant to be lol when will you learn...no snow storms are ever "meant to be" around here, rather climatological anomalies (don't mind me, I'm just gearing back up for next winter!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 What's the deal with WeatherBELL? I can't get on. Sounds like the overnight runs were a step in the right direction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/xecmwf_ma.php Bottom 7 links. Control is a big hit for southern half of va and far n nc. 2-4" here. thanks I didn't see that on this page, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 What's the deal with WeatherBELL? I can't get on. Sounds like the overnight runs were a step in the right direction! wxbell works fine for me. Op runs weren't a step in the right direction. They are squashed/non-storms. Hardly a worry at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 What's the deal with WeatherBELL? I can't get on. Sounds like the overnight runs were a step in the right direction! I have trouble too sometimes I have to erase all the cookies or I will go into a loop . And use one particular browser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 wxbell works fine for me. Op runs weren't a step in the right direction. They are squashed/non-storms. Hardly a worry at this point. Well, like it has been said a million times, at least the storm is there. I feel like we're going to be okay with this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I have trouble too sometimes I have to erase all the cookies or I will go into a loop . And use one particular browser That worked! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Well, like it has been said a million times, at least the storm is there. I feel like we're going to be okay with this one... It's nice to have a good winter under our belts. Allows us to casually keep an eye on a novelty type storm and not care much if it doesn't pan out. Euro ensembles showed some distinct timing differences. The window is more like mon-wed than just Monday. We should have a good idea what to expect once we get to Saturday or so. It's a decent setup for a storm of some sort. Could be dynamic given the time of year if something does get its act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I'll say this (as it looks like 12z GFS will still be progressive)....Without sounding cliche, I truly believe in a northern branch storm like this, the GFS will likely show its usual bias...Now, if the EURO shows a progressive out to sea event at 12z & 00z tonight, then I'll start to give up a bit, but as long as the CMC/EURO show this event, I would discount the GFS in a setup like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I'll say this (as it looks like 12z GFS will still be progressive)....Without sounding cliche, I truly believe in a northern branch storm like this, the GFS will likely show its usual bias...Now, if the EURO shows a progressive out to sea event at 12z & 00z tonight, then I'll start to give up a bit, but as long as the CMC/EURO show this event, I would discount the GFS in a setup like this. The GFS has been money with Northern Branch storms this year I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I give this storm a 2% chance of being good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 GGEM GOES BOOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Waiting for precip maps, this looks good though! At least it tells me that the GFS bias is in play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 GGEM GOES BOOM Are you sure its cold enough? That 1030s H looks a bit too far west for our liking here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Are you sure its cold enough? That 1030s H looks a bit too far west for our liking here Gotta wait and see, regardless it goes right with what I'm saying about the GFS bias in events like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Gotta wait and see, regardless it goes right with what I'm saying about the GFS bias in events like this. You've reached level 5 super weenie. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 You've reached level 5 super weenie. Congrats. So be it...following models my whole life and this the perfect type of pattern for the GFS to show its bias. When the 12z EURO goes crazy people will jump back on the bandwagon. GGEM looks pretty similar to the EURO ens mean. Looks like it is just cold enough in DC, will have to wait for stormvista maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 You've reached level 5 super weenie. Congrats. Shhh, I'm enjoying it. He's a least carrying the torch for us snow lovers. You are causing people to defect left and right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 So be it...following models my whole life and this the perfect type of pattern for the GFS to show its bias. When the 12z EURO goes crazy people will jump back on the bandwagon. GGEM looks pretty similar to the EURO ens mean. Looks like it is just cold enough in DC, will have to wait for stormvista maps. So far 126 and 132 are rain Yup... not cold enough at the surface... nice cold rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Ggem has a warm bias ....I'm in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Shhh, I'm enjoying it. He's a least carrying the torch for us snow lovers. You are causing people to defect left and right! GFS may be whack but usually its 'bias' still shows something of a storm. This run was total meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Well see on temps, it looks close though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Well see on temps, it looks close though ggem1.jpg I see the temps already... 35-40 doesn't cut it... wet snow to end by 144... maybe a slushy inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 GFS may be whack but usually its 'bias' still shows something of a storm. This run was total meh. It still had the pieces in play though...Look @ 120 hours, its so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 850's are borderline to cold enough. SFC blows chunks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 It's snow or no. Not seeing a rain storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 It's not like we're in late February. This is gonna be hard to pull off even with the perfect track and 500mb orientation. I'm honestly not even tracking it yet. We have a beast of a storm coming tomorrow which should be plenty fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 It's snow or no. Not seeing a rain storm The H is just too far away to get the cold air in here quicker. It takes too long so most of our precip is cold rain with SnowTV at the end when it pulls away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 GFS cold and dry. GGEM warm and wet. Split the difference and lock up a HECS. Done and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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