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ST Patricks Day Storm discussion


Ji

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if we get screwed by a suppressed storm in Mid March....then it was really never meant to be lol

when will you learn...no snow storms are ever "meant to be" around here, rather climatological anomalies

(don't mind me, I'm just gearing back up for next winter!)

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Well, like it has been said a million times, at least the storm is there. I feel like we're going to be okay with this one...

It's nice to have a good winter under our belts. Allows us to casually keep an eye on a novelty type storm and not care much if it doesn't pan out.

Euro ensembles showed some distinct timing differences. The window is more like mon-wed than just Monday. We should have a good idea what to expect once we get to Saturday or so. It's a decent setup for a storm of some sort. Could be dynamic given the time of year if something does get its act together.

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I'll say this (as it looks like 12z  GFS will still be progressive)....Without sounding cliche, I truly believe in a northern branch storm like this, the GFS will likely show its usual bias...Now, if the EURO shows a progressive out to sea event at 12z & 00z tonight, then I'll start to give up a bit, but as long as the CMC/EURO show this event, I would discount the GFS in a setup like this. 

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I'll say this (as it looks like 12z  GFS will still be progressive)....Without sounding cliche, I truly believe in a northern branch storm like this, the GFS will likely show its usual bias...Now, if the EURO shows a progressive out to sea event at 12z & 00z tonight, then I'll start to give up a bit, but as long as the CMC/EURO show this event, I would discount the GFS in a setup like this. 

 

The GFS has been money with Northern Branch storms this year I believe.

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You've reached level 5 super weenie. Congrats. 

 

So be it...following models my whole life and this the perfect type of pattern for the GFS to show its bias. When the 12z EURO goes crazy people will jump back on the bandwagon. 

 

GGEM looks pretty similar to the EURO ens mean. Looks like it is just cold enough in DC, will have to wait for stormvista maps.

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So be it...following models my whole life and this the perfect type of pattern for the GFS to show its bias. When the 12z EURO goes crazy people will jump back on the bandwagon. 

 

GGEM looks pretty similar to the EURO ens mean. Looks like it is just cold enough in DC, will have to wait for stormvista maps.

 

So far 126 and 132 are rain

 

Yup... not cold enough at the surface... nice cold rainstorm

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Shhh, I'm enjoying it.

He's a least carrying the torch for us snow lovers.  You are causing people to defect left and right!   :(

GFS may be whack but usually its 'bias' still shows something of a storm.  This run was total meh. 

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