olafminesaw Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 It looks like about half of the 18z gfs ensembles have decent hits with a few big wrapped up storms. It seems like an improvement over 12z, and ensembles are better at this range. Please correct if I am wrong about anything. I am learning here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Wowow on some of those gfs ensemble members, the potential of this thing is off the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Some good members. There not much blocking to keep the 50/50 locked in place. However, it is still possible the PV doesn't make it far enough east and phases with the storm. There is also a kicker controlling the exit timing of this. This may suppress the storm if the initial low forms too far south, as shown by some Gefs members. It also may help us stay snow by pushing the storm due east if it forms too far west also shown by some Gefs members and the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskinsnut Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Hoping this storm morphs into sunny and 60. You should change your screen name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 My instincts are telling me that this thread will become busy with not "if" but "how much" come late week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 My instincts are telling me that this thread will become busy with not "if" but "how much" come late week *hugs* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Some good members. There not much blocking to keep the 50/50 locked in place. However, it is still possible the PV doesn't make it far enough east and phases with the storm. There is also a kicker controlling the exit timing of this. This may suppress the storm if the initial low forms too far south, as shown by some Gefs members. It also may help us stay snow by pushing the storm due east if it forms too far west also shown by some Gefs members and the Euro. 100% right, the exact strength and timing of the energy comic down from Canada + where that ULL aligns over SE Canada will decide what this baby does...its nice to know that if they align correctly we could get a beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Timing vorts and pv placement is a recipe for model mayhem. We just went through it with the storm on the 1st. Should be a roller coaster in here for the next 5-6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 *hugs* Hard to place bets on a sig storm. Even if the stars align 90% right this late in the season we still end up with a messy or light even. Can our good fortunes continue one more time? IMO we would be quite lucky to get more than 2" near the cities. But that would still be a memorable cap to a solid season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Talk about a signal on the GEFS.... wow.... 7/12 have some snow. Hug P001... I'd honestly be surprised if this 100% disappears. Though we need a night start, or at least cold temps. 32 during broad daylight just isn't going to cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 You should change your screen name. Tough to get winter weather in mid March. Best result will still involve drip, drip, drip. Not my favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Tough to get winter weather in mid March. Best result will still involve drip, drip, drip. Not my favorite. Me either. However, for the sheer symmetry of the winter, I'm rooting for this, even if it is inevitably messy and short-lived. Since we started with accumulating snow on Dec 8, another accumulating snow would give us a 4-month snow season. Pretty awesome for these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 33 and snow destroys 44 and rain any day. March isn't a mid 60's and sunny month. The novelty of march snow makes it worth it. At least I can enjoy being outside in sloppy snow. I find no joy in walking around in cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Tough to get winter weather in mid March. Best result will still involve drip, drip, drip. Not my favorite. You're in a better spot than most of us for a good March snow... and a much better spot than DC or the coastal plain. Climo-wise, you're still in the game for good snows until March 20th or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 You're in a better spot than most of us for a good March snow... and a much better spot than DC or the coastal plain. Climo-wise, you're still in the game for good snows until March 20th or so. They're still tough though. However, we did have a nice day on March 18 last year. Below freezing in the afternoon with sleet and snow accumulating on paved surfaces. Nice day that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Ridging over the west is progged to be in a good position next week. With the amount of amplification taking shape I would be surprised if something more significant didn't setup. Whether its far enough north, hits at night, temps below marginal remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 If you extrapolate the 0z NAM... this storm is in the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 00z GFS looks even better than 18z, it still might be suppressed, but another big step towards a big solution. I am seriously staying up until 3am for the EURO. I am sick in the head . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 00z GFS looks even better than 18z, it still might be suppressed, but another big step towards a big solution. I am seriously staying up until 3am for the EURO. I am sick in the head . Yes considering it is a week away... We should not even have a storm thread yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 00z GFS looks even better than 18z, it still might be suppressed, but another big step towards a big solution. I am seriously staying up until 3am for the EURO. I am sick in the head . Bad PV position on the GFS, that will suppress anything. The euro lifts that feature north and allows the storm to go to town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Bad PV position on the GFS, that will suppress anything. The euro lifts that feature north and allows the storm to go to town No biggies, the main pieces were still on the board though, it is a lot closer than it looks on the 00z run...thats all that matters to me, is that that piece of energy that dives down from Canada still showing up...Onto GGEM/EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Yes considering it is a week away... We should not even have a storm thread yet... If you don't like it you don't have to post in it right? Why does it bother you so much? There's been many mets. on this board that are really excited about the potential with this one. Its about the overall pattern. For the most part, 7-9 days out you knew the 12-14th could produce some kind of winter storm...it did, just farther North...Same here, for the most part all of the data is pointing towards some kind of storm for this time period. What exact kind of storm? Who knows, but the threat is there. It is the last threat of the year, relax. We all understand it's 7 days out. What excites me the most is that the model runs that show everything coming together have an epic bomb, and as long as there is potential for something like that, I'm all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The main players come onto land @ about 96 hours, which isn't that far out....@ 120 hours it wouldn't take much change for the GFS to have shown a beast...The overall setup is ripe for something. I haven't been this excited for something all year. I have a feeling most on the board won't get excited until the GFS starts showing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 GGEM looks nice... not much snow though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 My instincts are telling me that this thread will become busy with not "if" but "how much" come late week Throws about fifty bluish white chips on the table. Blackjack incoming. We are all gonna win BIG. The Bellagio's gonna roll over and die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Looks like the Euro squashed it and the GFS lost it, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 this storm is not reallly gone from the euro. The euro control has it and the ECMWF mean for JYO is still 4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 this storm is not reallly gone from the euro. The euro control has it and the ECMWF mean for JYO is still 4 inches yea, and 14+/- members show 6+ and the # of really big hits is going up. MSLP panels do show a more suppressed look but that's probably not going to be a problem. It could trend to a nw track for all we know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 yea, and 14+/- members show 6+ and the # of really big hits is going up. MSLP panels do show a more suppressed look but that's probably not going to be a problem. It could trend to a nw track for all we know if we get screwed by a suppressed storm in Mid March....then it was really never meant to be lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 yea, and 14+/- members show 6+ and the # of really big hits is going up. MSLP panels do show a more suppressed look but that's probably not going to be a problem. It could trend to a nw track for all we know how do you view the control run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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