Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

ST Patricks Day Storm discussion


Ji

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 828
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Some good members. There not much blocking to keep the 50/50  locked in place.  However, it is still possible the PV doesn't make it far enough east and phases with the storm. There is also a kicker controlling the exit timing of this.  This may suppress the storm if the initial low forms too far south, as shown by some Gefs members.   It also may help us stay snow by pushing the storm due east if it forms too far west also shown by some Gefs members and the Euro. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some good members. There not much blocking to keep the 50/50  locked in place.  However, it is still possible the PV doesn't make it far enough east and phases with the storm. There is also a kicker controlling the exit timing of this.  This may suppress the storm if the initial low forms too far south, as shown by some Gefs members.   It also may help us stay snow by pushing the storm due east if it forms too far west also shown by some Gefs members and the Euro.

100% right, the exact strength and timing of the energy comic down from Canada + where that ULL aligns over SE Canada will decide what this baby does...its nice to know that if they align correctly we could get a beast

Link to comment
Share on other sites

*hugs*

Hard to place bets on a sig storm. Even if the stars align 90% right this late in the season we still end up with a messy or light even. Can our good fortunes continue one more time?

IMO we would be quite lucky to get more than 2" near the cities. But that would still be a memorable cap to a solid season

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tough to get winter weather in mid March. Best result will still involve drip, drip, drip.

Not my favorite.

Me either.  However, for the sheer symmetry of the winter, I'm rooting for this, even if it is inevitably messy and short-lived.  Since we started with accumulating snow on Dec 8, another accumulating snow would give us a 4-month snow season.  Pretty awesome for these parts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tough to get winter weather in mid March. Best result will still involve drip, drip, drip.

Not my favorite.

 

You're in a better spot than most of us for a good March snow... and a much better spot than DC or the coastal plain. Climo-wise, you're still in the game for good snows until March 20th or so.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You're in a better spot than most of us for a good March snow... and a much better spot than DC or the coastal plain. Climo-wise, you're still in the game for good snows until March 20th or so.

They're still tough though. However, we did have a nice day on March 18 last year. Below freezing in the afternoon with sleet and snow accumulating on paved surfaces. Nice day that was.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ridging over the west is progged to be in a good position next week. With the amount of amplification taking shape I would be surprised if something more significant didn't setup. Whether its far enough north, hits at night, temps below marginal remains to be seen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z GFS looks even better than 18z, it still might be suppressed, but another big step towards a big solution. I am seriously staying up until 3am for the EURO. I am sick in the head :(

 

Bad PV position on the GFS, that will suppress anything. The euro lifts that feature north and allows the storm to go to town

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bad PV position on the GFS, that will suppress anything. The euro lifts that feature north and allows the storm to go to town

 

No biggies, the main pieces were still on the board though, it is a lot closer than it looks on the 00z run...thats all that matters to me, is that that piece of energy that dives down from Canada still showing up...Onto GGEM/EURO. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes considering it is a week away... We should not even have a storm thread yet...

 

If you don't like it you don't have to post in it right? Why does it bother you so much? There's been many mets. on this board that are really excited about the potential with this one. Its about the overall pattern. For the most part, 7-9 days out you knew the 12-14th could produce some kind of winter storm...it did, just farther North...Same here, for the most part all of the data is pointing towards some kind of storm for this time period. What exact kind of storm? Who knows, but the threat is there. It is the last threat of the year, relax. We all understand it's 7 days out. What excites me the most is that the model runs that show everything coming together have an epic bomb, and as long as there is potential for something like that, I'm all in. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The main players come onto land @ about 96 hours, which isn't that far out....@ 120 hours it wouldn't take much change for the GFS to have shown a beast...The overall setup is ripe for something. I haven't been this excited for something all year. I have a feeling most on the board won't get excited until the GFS starts showing it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

this storm is not reallly gone from the euro. The euro control has it and the ECMWF mean for JYO is still 4 inches

yea, and 14+/- members show 6+ and the # of really big hits is going up.

MSLP panels do show a more suppressed look but that's probably not going to be a problem. It could trend to a nw track for all we know

Link to comment
Share on other sites

yea, and 14+/- members show 6+ and the # of really big hits is going up.

MSLP panels do show a more suppressed look but that's probably not going to be a problem. It could trend to a nw track for all we know

if we get screwed by a suppressed storm in Mid March....then it was really never meant to be lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...