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ST Patricks Day Storm discussion


Ji

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i know you've posted the charts before but can you tell us if there has ever been a 8"+ storm after March 15th?

I don't have the stats at work but this is the top 10 all time. 28-29 1942 started as rain but the 11.5 fell on the 29th. 

 

post-1615-0-84605200-1394729595_thumb.gi

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I wasn't trolling...I thought you didn't put so much weight into historical averages.

I certainly don't buy a model spitting out the top snowstorm in March by a decent margin when it doesn't have support. 

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Oh...didn't know you were talking about the GGEM.

 

I wasn't specifically. The GFS is cold but the raw temps are prob like 5 too cold which makes for a very marginal situation in DC at least. I don't give a **** if some hill northwest of me gets a few inches to be honest. Plus the GFS is lol.. only the Euro matters for now. 

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I think given the cold still around we are probably lagging climo a bit, though even 4-8" in DC would be pretty gigantic at this point in the year of course. 

4-8" for DC on St. Paddy's Day would have to be a record or near record amount for a storm at that time of year.  But then again, getting 4" the last week of March last year was quite an outlier as well.  (Caveat:  that was on the immediate northwest side of DC, in MD, just inside the Beltway.  So there was surely a large gradient from that event as you approached the city proper.  But DCA itself even got 1.4" from that).  Key is, regardless of what amount might fall, getting that to occur at the right time is important (and having an anomalously cold airmass in place, too).

 

I guess to "cut the difference" between realism and weenieism looking at all the recent model cycles, it's certainly realistic at this point to think we'll get some accumulating snow Sunday night and Monday, and just possibly quite a decent amount (especially for the 17th of March).

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I wasn't specifically. The GFS is cold but the raw temps are prob like 5 too cold which makes for a very marginal situation in DC at least. I don't give a **** if some hill northwest of me gets a few inches to be honest. Plus the GFS is lol.. only the Euro matters for now. 

Hi Matt.

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12z GEFS looks pretty good

 

78 -- 1004 L NW AL

84 -- 1003 L over ATL

90 -- 1003 L SC/NC border (right along the Atlantic coast)

96 -- 1004 L near Outer Banks

102 -- 1003 L east of ORF ~150 miles

 

Hrs 84-96 looks to be when the snow comes down

 

CHO/IAD/DCA/BWI/EZF all around 1" QPF

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I wasn't specifically. The GFS is cold but the raw temps are prob like 5 too cold which makes for a very marginal situation in DC at least. I don't give a **** if some hill northwest of me gets a few inches to be honest. Plus the GFS is lol.. only the Euro matters for now.

Talk to me when the euro puts 2 consistent runs in a row

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Talk to me when the euro puts 2 consistent runs in a row

I'm not dismissing anything entirely really.. well, other than the GGEM.  But this thread is so one sided it's kind of silly. 

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I don't have the stats at work but this is the top 10 all time. 28-29 1942 started as rain but the 11.5 fell on the 29th. 

 

attachicon.gifsnow_benchmarks_march.gif

 

For the DCA location, looks like the 1993 Superstorm was the closest to an 8" mid-March event.  1999 event too of course, but that's a bit earlier in the month.  Depends on what one defines as "mid month", I suppose.

 

Amazing that *anywhere* in the DC area mustered over 19" monthly total for March, in 1914...wow!!

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