MN Transplant Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 i know you've posted the charts before but can you tell us if there has ever been a 8"+ storm after March 15th? March 29th, 1942 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 i know you've posted the charts before but can you tell us if there has ever been a 8"+ storm after March 15th? I don't have the stats at work but this is the top 10 all time. 28-29 1942 started as rain but the 11.5 fell on the 29th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 i know you've posted the charts before but can you tell us if there has ever been a 8"+ storm after March 15th? Palm Sunday 1942? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I wasn't trolling...I thought you didn't put so much weight into historical averages. I certainly don't buy a model spitting out the top snowstorm in March by a decent margin when it doesn't have support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I certainly don't buy a model spitting out the top snowstorm in March by a decent margin when it doesn't have support. Oh...didn't know you were talking about the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Oh...didn't know you were talking about the GGEM. I wasn't specifically. The GFS is cold but the raw temps are prob like 5 too cold which makes for a very marginal situation in DC at least. I don't give a **** if some hill northwest of me gets a few inches to be honest. Plus the GFS is lol.. only the Euro matters for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 GGEM came back down to earth with the overall 500mb evolution...It splits the energy off, but the main slug is good...Worries me though because something like that could end up being squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I think given the cold still around we are probably lagging climo a bit, though even 4-8" in DC would be pretty gigantic at this point in the year of course. 4-8" for DC on St. Paddy's Day would have to be a record or near record amount for a storm at that time of year. But then again, getting 4" the last week of March last year was quite an outlier as well. (Caveat: that was on the immediate northwest side of DC, in MD, just inside the Beltway. So there was surely a large gradient from that event as you approached the city proper. But DCA itself even got 1.4" from that). Key is, regardless of what amount might fall, getting that to occur at the right time is important (and having an anomalously cold airmass in place, too). I guess to "cut the difference" between realism and weenieism looking at all the recent model cycles, it's certainly realistic at this point to think we'll get some accumulating snow Sunday night and Monday, and just possibly quite a decent amount (especially for the 17th of March). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I wasn't specifically. The GFS is cold but the raw temps are prob like 5 too cold which makes for a very marginal situation in DC at least. I don't give a **** if some hill northwest of me gets a few inches to be honest. Plus the GFS is lol.. only the Euro matters for now. Hi Matt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 March 29th, 1942 thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 12z GEFS looks pretty good 78 -- 1004 L NW AL 84 -- 1003 L over ATL 90 -- 1003 L SC/NC border (right along the Atlantic coast) 96 -- 1004 L near Outer Banks 102 -- 1003 L east of ORF ~150 miles Hrs 84-96 looks to be when the snow comes down CHO/IAD/DCA/BWI/EZF all around 1" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Crazy that March 1914 apparently pieced together 19.3 inches without a single storm above 6.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 13, 2014 Author Share Posted March 13, 2014 I wasn't specifically. The GFS is cold but the raw temps are prob like 5 too cold which makes for a very marginal situation in DC at least. I don't give a **** if some hill northwest of me gets a few inches to be honest. Plus the GFS is lol.. only the Euro matters for now. Talk to me when the euro puts 2 consistent runs in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Talk to me when the euro puts 2 consistent runs in a row I'm not dismissing anything entirely really.. well, other than the GGEM. But this thread is so one sided it's kind of silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I don't have the stats at work but this is the top 10 all time. 28-29 1942 started as rain but the 11.5 fell on the 29th. snow_benchmarks_march.gif For the DCA location, looks like the 1993 Superstorm was the closest to an 8" mid-March event. 1999 event too of course, but that's a bit earlier in the month. Depends on what one defines as "mid month", I suppose. Amazing that *anywhere* in the DC area mustered over 19" monthly total for March, in 1914...wow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 That is what happens when a group of people meet who psychologically want snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 That is what happens when a group of people meet who psychologically want snow... Or new people, snow weenies and a few others who need to stop posting all together, merge onto a snow threat in mid march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Now the GFS is a good model. LOL, yeah! Love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43194-saint-patricks-day-snow-event/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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