Scraff Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The Highzenberg Storm has legs! Like that GFS run--want the Euro back in our corner now. 2:00 now right? Ok. I see. 2:00 for the most important Euro run...today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 GGEM looks good so far, but Ithink its going to bury some of the energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 All in all positive changes on the GFS. Naso on the Euro. Two steps forward, one step back. Although I think 12z Euro hooks us up. 0z GGEM from last night is like if Ji programmed it....it's not gonna happen so it should come down to reality. even though the globals have entered a range where they have significantly increasing skill, this storm is so tricky, I think there will be less resolution of the progression than usual....GFS has a surface low spinning in virtually the same place for 48 hours....Euro has back to back coastal lows 24 hours apart...these late season storms are really tricky for a number of reasons....I don't think we should give too much credit to the models...even at this range...as far as the euro versus the GFS, hypothetically since we don't know the solution at all....if one model has a storm that hits us 145 runs in a row and loses it for 1 run, and the other model is completely clueless until 72 hours out, and then when it does hit us, it is the most outlandish progression ever, I don't think you switch positions..Euro is the way to go on this storm...it has much higher resolution, it deals with coastals better, it deals with southern stream interaction and phasing better, it has been fairly steady with the general idea for days now....i don't think what the GFS shows is particularly useful yet....and it may not be useful at any range...doesn't mean the euro is right...but I would certainly defer to it if I was formulating ideas and relaying them to people...since it is Thursday and we are the only ones who really care and being "right" is unimportant, I don't think it matters a whole lot anyway.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 GGEM looks good so far, but Ithink its going to bury some of the energy agreed, and expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 My personal thoughts is that initial first surge will start to look better and better, but not all the energy will come out, itll be far from a HECS like the 00z GGEM, but I could see a 4-8" from DC to Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Who said it was a bad model? lol.. plenty of people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Euro bias in force over last 1-2 days. Better runs to follow. MDstorm Seems it's pulling the GFS bias here no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 My personal thoughts is that initial first surge will start to look better and better, but not all the energy will come out, itll be far from a HECS like the 00z GGEM, but I could see a 4-8" from DC to Philly. DC avgs 0.2" of snow Mar 17 onward.. so that's my initial target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 GGEM has a nice slug of moisture coming in at 84 hours...850's are fine..SFC is just nw of the city at 8pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 PV looks stronger/further south on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 DC avgs 0.2" of snow Mar 17 onward.. so that's my initial target. exactly..what is the point in having personal thoughts when nobody has a clue what is going to happen....might as well just go with climo...IF we have a storm, sharp gradient, and good chance DC gets screwed and it will be tough to forecast the gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 GGEM is a pummeling at 90 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Ian the pessimist? Shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 GGEM is a pummeling at 90 hours Is the GGem the new DR. YES as of late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 GGEM is a pummeling at 90 hours Small 1" QPF marker just NE of DCA That is 6 hr QPF BTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 prime time..2am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 prime time..2am Porn is not allowed on this website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 What is more likely...I get 12" or you make a single post that has value? Sorry, I will try better to meet your exuberant expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Weeniebell takes forever to get the GGEM. Is there another site I can find it on? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 We do not get above freezing all day Monday on the 12z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 exactly..what is the point in having personal thoughts when nobody has a clue what is going to happen....might as well just go with climo...IF we have a storm, sharp gradient, and good chance DC gets screwed and it will be tough to forecast the gradient I think given the cold still around we are probably lagging climo a bit, though even 4-8" in DC would be pretty gigantic at this point in the year of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Ian the pessimist? Shocking. Yeah, and right way more than wrong. But thanks for trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Ian the pessimist? Shocking. realistic and pessimistic are two different things, weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Remarkable changes on today's 12Z GFS. Even if the ULL pushes off to our southeast, that would be quite a bit on the "front end" (whatever it should be called) for us. And the GFS has the area below freezing all day on Monday, too. The 12Z GGEM...wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 We do not get above freezing all day Monday on the 12z GGEM Interesting...same thing on the GFS from what I saw. Pretty amazing if that were to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The GGEM doesn't bring out all the energy like the 00z did, but the initial slug is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 CHO to DCA to BWI area is jackpot on the GGEM... 12-15 inches if everything accumulated and was exactly correct. Cut it in half... 6-8 sounds good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I think given the cold still around we are probably lagging climo a bit, though even 4-8" in DC would be pretty gigantic at this point in the year of course. i know you've posted the charts before but can you tell us if there has ever been a 8"+ storm after March 15th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Yeah, and right way more than wrong. But thanks for trolling. I wasn't trolling...I thought you didn't put so much weight into historical averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The GGEM doesn't bring out all the energy like the 00z did, but the initial slug is awesome.Crazy to think the GEM delivers 12"+ and it holds energy back. Potential is on the table for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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