T. August Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The 12z NAM wasn't too bad, was it? It looks like we'd get some snow from it. Not that it matters lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Look at the 500 at hour 84....how on earth could we say it folded...it looks beautiful.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Nam folds. Ggem is now the only model showing anything of note Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 When did the NWS change their freeze warning color to purple? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 looks like things are just getting started... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I don't think it folded... just reached the end of teh run. It looked like there would be snow comingWell it looks nothing like the 00z nam or ggem. But its a crappy model anyway so who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Well it looks nothing like the 00z nam or ggem. But its a crappy model anyway so who cares. What are you basing this on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Well it looks nothing like the 00z nam or ggem. But its a crappy model anyway so who cares. Well 00z GGEM was probably an aberration... but if you were to have the NAM go out another 6-12 hrs, I am pretty sure that we would do okay, I stake my weather weenie card on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 NAM folds? Huh? I don't think it folded... just reached the end of teh run. It looked like there would be snow coming It reached the end of the run, but out of NAM's ashes rises DGEX, like a Phoenix from Arizona. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 You guys should compare the DGEX sim radar to 84 hour sim radar on 12z NAM...looks quite similar.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 It's Monday already? Dang, I slept for four whole days! Why do people think that some here are anti-GFS? No one is saying it's not a great model, it is. But it has its faws/biases (as does every model, with some having more than others), as shown as recently as 2/13. It could certainly end up verifying in this situation, but we're still way too far out to be proclaiming it victorious. Funny that some never hesitate to call it wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 NAM folds? Huh? He is awful. Seriously..terrible and had the nerve to whine about Hizenberg last night. He is one of the only two people I have ever put on ignore in 9 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Well 00z GGEM was probably an aberration... but if you were to have the NAM go out another 6-12 hrs, I am pretty sure that we would do okay, I stake my weather weenie card on it Okay we'd still probably get some snow. my first post was an over reation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Funny that some never hesitate to call it wrong. I think you might be overstating it a little....sensible people have called the GFS into doubt RELATIVE to what the other globals are saying...just as I would have ANY global model that was on it's own, whether it's the GFS, the EURO, GGEM..etc. I've done it before. If the GFS/UK/GGEM were all showing some crappy southern slider solution and the EURO showed a blizzard of epic proportions, I'd cast a whole lot of doubt on the Euro. Now if the other models today start to converge toward the GFS, thinking changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 You guys should compare the DGEX sim radar to 84 hour sim radar on 12z NAM...looks quite similar Yes the 84 hr nam and the Dgex....LOL did you say that with a straight face....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Well 00z GGEM was probably an aberration... but if you were to have the NAM go out another 6-12 hrs, I am pretty sure that we would do okay, I stake my weather weenie card on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 You guys should compare the DGEX sim radar to 84 hour sim radar on 12z NAM...looks quite similar.. Ok, I will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Well it looks nothing like the 00z nam or ggem. But its a crappy model anyway so who cares. Well, the 00Z NAM ended 12 hours earlier than it did in the current 12Z run...and the event would just be starting at the end of it's run now as it is (assuming there's an event!). So saying "looking nothing like the 00Z NAM" doesn't make a lot of sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Well it looks nothing like the 00z nam or ggem. But its a crappy model anyway so who cares. So why do you care if it folds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 NAM would def. be a great run for DC IMO, but it def took a step towards the weaker solutions, meaning, not all of the energy is going to come out, but hopefully enough does where we can cash in... Honestly, the GGEM crushed the other models in the last snowstorm, I now it sounds weenie-ish, but I'm going to ride the GGEM to the grave with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Funny that some never hesitate to call it wrong. It was a complete outlier. That's all we were saying. It's pretty logical to discount a model when it's all alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 It isnt worth discussing anymore the NAM didn't fold or anything close to that...in fact, it is an excellent look for snow. doesn't mean it is right, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 You guys should compare the DGEX sim radar to 84 hour sim radar on 12z NAM...looks quite similar.. You do realize the DGEX is run off the NAM after 84 hours with different computation. Meaning the 6z DGEX used the 6z NAM @ 84 hours, so obviously it is going to look like the NAM. The RGEM so far looks fairly similar to its 00z run, and the GGEM usually runs pretty close to the RGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I think you might be overstating it a little....sensible people have called the GFS into doubt RELATIVE to what the other globals are saying...just as I would have ANY global model that was on it's own, whether it's the GFS, the EURO, GGEM..etc. I've done it before. If the GFS/UK/GGEM were all showing some crappy southern slider solution and the EURO showed a blizzard of epic proportions, I'd cast a whole lot of doubt on the Euro. Now if the other models today start to converge toward the GFS, thinking changes. Exactly. Case in point was the Feb. 12-13 storm. Every global model, plus the NAM and RGEM, were giving us copious amounts of QPF overnight on the 12th into the morning of the 13th, with a foot of snow before changing to sleet/ice/drizzle/etc. The GFS held on to it's much lower QPF amounts for that overnight period and was clearly a major outlier, until it joined the party right at game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 NAM would def. be a great run for DC IMO, but it def took a step towards the weaker solutions, meaning, not all of the energy is going to come out, but hopefully enough does where we can cash in... Honestly, the GGEM crushed the other models in the last snowstorm, I now it sounds weenie-ish, but I'm going to ride the GGEM to the grave with this one. i still think a compromise solution might be a possibility here, something like the Euro from yesterday had... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k94 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Some people are insane, we are talking long range NAM here. It is not even half bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 NAM would def. be a great run for DC IMO, but it def took a step towards the weaker solutions, meaning, not all of the energy is going to come out, but hopefully enough does where we can cash in... Honestly, the GGEM crushed the other models in the last snowstorm, I now it sounds weenie-ish, but I'm going to ride the GGEM to the grave with this one. Oy so when it folds in an hour that means we are screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 To my admittedly untrained eyes, NAM looks more like GGEM than the GFS or Euro. 12z NAM looks even more like the GGEM than the 00z NAM did. At 00z on Sunday: 12z NAM: 00z GGEM: 06z GFS: 00z Euro: And at 12z Sunday: 12z NAM: 00z GGEM: 06z GFS: 00z NAM: If all the images are bothering anyone, please let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Oy so when it folds in an hour that means we are screwed. I don't think it will fold honestly, but I don't think it will bring out all the energy like the 00z run did...I think a compromise would be perfect for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 RGEM @ 48 hours; gifs upload Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.