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ST Patricks Day Storm discussion


Ji

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Well it looks nothing like the 00z nam or ggem. But its a crappy model anyway so who cares.

 

Well 00z GGEM was probably an aberration... but if you were to have the NAM go out another 6-12 hrs, I am pretty sure that we would do okay,  I stake my weather weenie card on it ;)

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It's Monday already? Dang, I slept for four whole days! :(

Why do people think that some here are anti-GFS? No one is saying it's not a great model, it is. But it has its faws/biases (as does every model, with some having more than others), as shown as recently as 2/13. ;)

It could certainly end up verifying in this situation, but we're still way too far out to be proclaiming it victorious.

Funny that some never hesitate to call it wrong.

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Well 00z GGEM was probably an aberration... but if you were to have the NAM go out another 6-12 hrs, I am pretty sure that we would do okay, I stake my weather weenie card on it ;)

Okay we'd still probably get some snow. my first post was an over reation.
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Funny that some never hesitate to call it wrong.

 

I think you might be overstating it a little....sensible people have called the GFS into doubt RELATIVE to what the other globals are saying...just as I would have ANY global model that was on it's own, whether it's the GFS, the EURO, GGEM..etc.   I've done it before.  If the GFS/UK/GGEM were all showing some crappy southern slider solution and the EURO showed a blizzard of epic proportions, I'd cast a whole lot of doubt on the Euro.  Now if the other models today start to converge toward the GFS, thinking changes.

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Well it looks nothing like the 00z nam or ggem. But its a crappy model anyway so who cares.

 

Well, the 00Z NAM ended 12 hours earlier than it did in the current 12Z run...and the event would just be starting at the end of it's run now as it is (assuming there's an event!).  So saying "looking nothing like the 00Z NAM" doesn't make a lot of sense.

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NAM would def. be a great run for DC IMO,  but it def took a step towards the weaker solutions, meaning, not all of the energy is going to come out, but hopefully enough does where we can cash in...

 

Honestly, the GGEM crushed the other models in the last snowstorm, I now it sounds weenie-ish, but I'm going to ride the GGEM to the grave with this one. 

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You guys should compare the DGEX sim radar to 84 hour sim radar on 12z NAM...looks quite similar..

 

You do realize the DGEX is run off the NAM after 84 hours with different computation. Meaning the 6z DGEX used the 6z NAM @ 84 hours, so obviously it is going to look like the NAM. 

 

The RGEM so far looks fairly similar to its 00z run, and the GGEM usually runs pretty close to the RGEM...

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I think you might be overstating it a little....sensible people have called the GFS into doubt RELATIVE to what the other globals are saying...just as I would have ANY global model that was on it's own, whether it's the GFS, the EURO, GGEM..etc.   I've done it before.  If the GFS/UK/GGEM were all showing some crappy southern slider solution and the EURO showed a blizzard of epic proportions, I'd cast a whole lot of doubt on the Euro.  Now if the other models today start to converge toward the GFS, thinking changes.

Exactly.  Case in point was the Feb. 12-13 storm.  Every global model, plus the NAM and RGEM, were giving us copious amounts of QPF overnight on the 12th into the morning of the 13th, with a foot of snow before changing to sleet/ice/drizzle/etc.  The GFS held on to it's much lower QPF amounts for that overnight period and was clearly a major outlier, until it joined the party right at game time.

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NAM would def. be a great run for DC IMO,  but it def took a step towards the weaker solutions, meaning, not all of the energy is going to come out, but hopefully enough does where we can cash in...

 

Honestly, the GGEM crushed the other models in the last snowstorm, I now it sounds weenie-ish, but I'm going to ride the GGEM to the grave with this one. 

i still think a compromise solution might be a possibility here, something like the Euro from yesterday had...

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NAM would def. be a great run for DC IMO,  but it def took a step towards the weaker solutions, meaning, not all of the energy is going to come out, but hopefully enough does where we can cash in...

 

Honestly, the GGEM crushed the other models in the last snowstorm, I now it sounds weenie-ish, but I'm going to ride the GGEM to the grave with this one. 

Oy so when it folds in an hour that means we are screwed.

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To my admittedly untrained eyes, NAM looks more like GGEM than the GFS or Euro.  12z NAM looks even more like the GGEM than the 00z NAM did.

 

At 00z on Sunday:

 

12z NAM:

 

omnkQQx.gif

 

00z GGEM:

 

Y4om5Si.gif

 

06z GFS:

 

jqSctp0.gif

 

00z Euro:

 

jCLGWPu.gif

 

And at 12z Sunday:

 

12z NAM:

 

qoftHEo.gif

 

00z GGEM:

 

91Fg17D.gif

 

06z GFS:

 

jtYHIuy.gif

 

00z NAM:

 

UQdG7U1.gif

 

 

If all the images are bothering anyone, please let me know.

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