Huffwx Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 But not the all important "favored" region, the only region that truly matters, right? :-) Favored as in population weighted? Many up that way whined like babies last year when we pulled a climo winter compared to the puddles up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Here you go. Frame this and sell it at an art show titled "What Could Have Been" Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 It's early even for me to weigh in but I don't think the storm will be south like the current models indicate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 It's early even for me to weigh in but I don't think the storm will be south like the current models indicate! Thank goodness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Favored as in population weighted? Many up that way whined like babies last year when we pulled a climo winter compared to the puddles up there I hope somebody south of 40 gets a good storm. If not us I'll be stoked for you guys down there is it pans out. Even with the model tease it's felt more like a lucky 2-4" than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I hope somebody south of 40 gets a good storm. If not us I'll be stoked for you guys down there is it pans out. Even with the model tease it's felt more like a lucky 2-4" than anything else. I rout for our forum even when I'm not in play. I feel like we are in the trenches together. I'm still not at climo. . Likely only decent sized town not at or above on entire east coast. Just bad luck. .. have about same as last year w 15.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 9z SREF mean is significantly different than 6z NAM (almost cuts off the southern stream trough) and 6z GFS (too flat) and overall looks really nice at 00z Monday with an impressive 500 map and a sfc low over Alabama and cold air damming in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I like the GGEM I don't get why anybody would give up on a storm 4 days out. It doesn't make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 9z SREF mean is significantly different than 6z NAM (almost cuts off the southern stream trough) and 6z GFS (too flat) and overall looks really nice at 00z Monday with an impressive 500 map and a sfc low over Alabama and cold air damming in place. The sref itself was good, but I personally didnt like the trend of the 9z SREF, it now looks like most of the globals, like there's def some of the srefs burying the energy in Texas now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 What the hey? Too many negatives here. It is Thursday folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 What the hey? Too many negatives here. It is Thursday folks. And it was one run, after days of positive developments by the Euro... if 12z is similar and they continue to support a more GFS type solution, then yes, time to worry but for now, still hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I rout for our forum even when I'm not in play. I feel like we are in the trenches together. I'm still not at climo. . Likely only decent sized town not at or above on entire east coast. Just bad luck. .. have about same as last year w 15.5. You should probably root for them instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Lol...didn't mean to start trouble. I guess I'm pissed from last night's Euro and being too pessimistic. Plus, I'm kinda using reverse psychology. I'm sure all of us who root for snow are disappointed about the overnight Euro, but keep some perspective. Progressive pattern = model variability. Doubtful that any model has yet nailed the final solution 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Euro ens mslp track did move more se last night. Still off obx but with more of an ene trajectory. Ind member output still has plenty of snow solutions. Around 40 or so show some snow. # of big hits went down but that's logical given the shift in the track more se. Around 30 show 2"+. I'm personally favoring the odds of a lighter event if we do get some snow. A big wound up low seems unlikely attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Euro ens mslp track did move more se last night. Still off obx but with more of an ene trajectory. Ind member output still has plenty of snow solutions. Around 40 or so show some snow. # of big hits went down but that's logical given the shift in the track more se. Around 30 show 2"+. I'm personally favoring the odds of a lighter event if we do get some snow. A big wound up low seems unlikely attm. And here I thought you favored last nights GGEM solution as your final answer Thanks for posting about the individ euro members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Euro ens mslp track did move more se last night. Still off obx but with more of an ene trajectory. Ind member output still has plenty of snow solutions. Around 40 or so show some snow. # of big hits went down but that's logical given the shift in the track more se. Around 30 show 2"+. I'm personally favoring the odds of a lighter event if we do get some snow. A big wound up low seems unlikely attm. Bob, given the time of year, I am fine with it showing suppressed. I know the one last Thursday/Friday stayed south, but you still have to think that the chances of it being north of where the GFS and Euro have it are far more likely than supression. At least I think so. If this were flush hitting us over and over again at this point, I would assume we would end up rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 You should probably root for them instead You Dont Need Any Rooting Up There Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 You Dont Need Any Rooting Up There i need an inch and a half for 40 on the season. I want my part of MG's map to fill in and look like everything else around it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 i need an inch and a half for 40 on the season. I want my part of MG's map to fill in and look like everything else around it. Good luck. Sent from my SM-N900P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Lot of energy coming down the backside on the 12z NAM at 66... phasing already ongoing it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Good luck. Sent from my SM-N900P I am gonna need it given the time of year. Still hoping for a massive mauler that paints snow from you all the way up to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Lot of energy coming down the backside on the 12z NAM at 66... phasing already ongoing it appears So far the high looks a bit slower to drop down on 12z NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Twitter weenies say GGEM is probably too big. I'm not sure.. we get a lot of 20" March snowstorms here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 hr 81 has SLP in 1004 in N MS and a 1034 H in UP of MI 84 1004 SLP in S TN Looks like some snow after maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 And here I thought you favored last nights GGEM solution as your final answer Thanks for posting about the individ euro members lol. I'm definitely hugging the ggem or whatever the snowiest model is but I'm a seasoned and experienced weenie. I know how it usually goes down. Expecting the best case is a garage full of hurt feelings. For the record, my bar for a successful track and event is 2" minimum. That's a respectable mid march snow event. Having a historic hit sure would be fun though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Bob, given the time of year, I am fine with it showing suppressed. I know the one last Thursday/Friday stayed south, but you still have to think that the chances of it being north of where the GFS and Euro have it are far more likely than supression. At least I think so. If this were flush hitting us over and over again at this point, I would assume we would end up rain. I'm fine too because without a very anomalous airmass in place or pushing in we're toast. Literally. lol I'm not sure we can get a prolific precip producer out of this setup. We "could" but it's far from a classic setup. It's mostly luck of timing a sw pushing into the pv. No -nao/ao in place. If the storm produces decent it's a pretty big fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Nam folds. Ggem is now the only model showing anything of note Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Nam folds. Ggem is now the only model showing anything of note I don't think it folded... just reached the end of teh run. It looked like there would be snow coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Might not be a good day for model runs. Stay away from the edge though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Nam folds. Ggem is now the only model showing anything of note NAM folds? Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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