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ST Patricks Day Storm discussion


Ji

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Favored as in population weighted?

Many up that way whined like babies last year when we pulled a climo winter compared to the puddles up there :)

I hope somebody south of 40 gets a good storm. If not us I'll be stoked for you guys down there is it pans out.

Even with the model tease it's felt more like a lucky 2-4" than anything else.

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I hope somebody south of 40 gets a good storm. If not us I'll be stoked for you guys down there is it pans out.

Even with the model tease it's felt more like a lucky 2-4" than anything else.

I rout for our forum even when I'm not in play. I feel like we are in the trenches together.

I'm still not at climo. . Likely only decent sized town not at or above on entire east coast. Just bad luck. .. have about same as last year w 15.5.

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9z SREF mean is significantly different than 6z NAM (almost cuts off the southern stream trough) and 6z GFS (too flat) and overall looks really nice at 00z Monday with an impressive 500 map and a sfc low over Alabama and cold air damming in place.

 

The sref itself was good, but I personally didnt like the trend of the 9z SREF, it now looks like most of the globals, like there's def some of  the srefs burying the energy in Texas now. 

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What the hey? Too many negatives here. It is Thursday folks.

 

And it was one run, after days of positive developments by the Euro... if 12z is similar and they continue to support a more GFS type solution, then yes, time to worry but for now, still hopeful.

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I rout for our forum even when I'm not in play. I feel like we are in the trenches together.

I'm still not at climo. . Likely only decent sized town not at or above on entire east coast. Just bad luck. .. have about same as last year w 15.5.

You should probably root for them instead

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Lol...didn't mean to start trouble. I guess I'm pissed from last night's Euro and being too pessimistic. Plus, I'm kinda using reverse psychology.

 

I'm sure all of us who root for snow are disappointed about the overnight Euro, but keep some perspective.  Progressive pattern = model variability.  Doubtful that any model has yet nailed the final solution 4 days out.

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Euro ens mslp track did move more se last night. Still off obx but with more of an ene trajectory.

Ind member output still has plenty of snow solutions. Around 40 or so show some snow. # of big hits went down but that's logical given the shift in the track more se. Around 30 show 2"+.

I'm personally favoring the odds of a lighter event if we do get some snow. A big wound up low seems unlikely attm.

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Euro ens mslp track did move more se last night. Still off obx but with more of an ene trajectory.

Ind member output still has plenty of snow solutions. Around 40 or so show some snow. # of big hits went down but that's logical given the shift in the track more se. Around 30 show 2"+.

I'm personally favoring the odds of a lighter event if we do get some snow. A big wound up low seems unlikely attm.

And here I thought you favored last nights GGEM solution as your final answer ;)

 

Thanks for posting about the individ euro members

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Euro ens mslp track did move more se last night. Still off obx but with more of an ene trajectory.

Ind member output still has plenty of snow solutions. Around 40 or so show some snow. # of big hits went down but that's logical given the shift in the track more se. Around 30 show 2"+.

I'm personally favoring the odds of a lighter event if we do get some snow. A big wound up low seems unlikely attm.

 

Bob, given the time of year, I am fine with it showing suppressed. I know the one last Thursday/Friday stayed south, but you still have to think that the chances of it being north of where the GFS and Euro have it are far more likely than supression. At least I think so. If this were flush hitting us over and over again at this point, I would assume we would end up rain.

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And here I thought you favored last nights GGEM solution as your final answer ;)

Thanks for posting about the individ euro members

lol. I'm definitely hugging the ggem or whatever the snowiest model is but I'm a seasoned and experienced weenie. I know how it usually goes down. Expecting the best case is a garage full of hurt feelings. For the record, my bar for a successful track and event is 2" minimum. That's a respectable mid march snow event. Having a historic hit sure would be fun though...

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Bob, given the time of year, I am fine with it showing suppressed. I know the one last Thursday/Friday stayed south, but you still have to think that the chances of it being north of where the GFS and Euro have it are far more likely than supression. At least I think so. If this were flush hitting us over and over again at this point, I would assume we would end up rain.

I'm fine too because without a very anomalous airmass in place or pushing in we're toast. Literally. lol

I'm not sure we can get a prolific precip producer out of this setup. We "could" but it's far from a classic setup. It's mostly luck of timing a sw pushing into the pv. No -nao/ao in place. If the storm produces decent it's a pretty big fluke.

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