Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 In response to the comment about NAVGEM an hour ago: NAVGEM had today's storm as a huge DC snowstorm until 48 hours ago. It's usually not THAT bad, but it was just horrendous for that last storm. At this lead models rarely converge. Especially in a progressive pattern. Siding with the highest skilled models and ensembles will always afford the best chance at having the right idea. If the navgem showed a big hit but the euro showed a whiff it would be a much bigger flag. We have the best scoring model and ensemble suite supporting a snowy solution. Gfs and ggem are next. One good and one bad. So 2 out of three look good. I'm not sure models like the navgem and dgex are of much use right now but that's only my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 At this lead models rarely converge. Especially in a progressive pattern. Siding with the highest skilled models and ensembles will always afford the best chance at having the right idea. If the navgem showed a big hit but the euro showed a whiff it would be a much bigger flag. We have the best scoring model and ensemble suite supporting a snowy solution. Gfs and ggem are next. One good and one bad. So 2 out of three look good. I'm not sure models like the navgem and dgex are of much use right now but that's only my opinion Agreed. But it's fun to peak. Honestly - I look at models like DGEX and NAVGEM because I go through Euro withdrawal and have nothing else to look at for 11 hours. Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Agreed. But it's fun to peak. Honestly - I look at models like DGEX and NAVGEM because I go through Euro withdrawal and have nothing else to look at for 11 hours. Sent from my SCH-I545 Ha, I used to do the same a couple years ago. I've successfully weened (took a lot of self discipline) but I still like looking at maps and disco when posted in the threads. I chuckle when Ian says models are like drugs. It's hard to get enough and there's too much out there already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Ha, I used to do the same a couple years ago. I've successfully weened (took a lot of self discipline) but I still like looking at maps and disco when posted in the threads. I chuckle when Ian says models are like drugs. It's hard to get enough and there's too much out there already.Ha. I make this joke all the time, but here goes again: one day, we won't have to wait. One day, the Euro (or some other high resolution model) will run every 2 minutes and will be fed by improved satellite data, app-fed surface data, and soundings every hour. And then, not even chaos theory will stop us!Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 At this lead models rarely converge. Especially in a progressive pattern. Siding with the highest skilled models and ensembles will always afford the best chance at having the right idea. If the navgem showed a big hit but the euro showed a whiff it would be a much bigger flag. We have the best scoring model and ensemble suite supporting a snowy solution. Gfs and ggem are next. One good and one bad. So 2 out of three look good. I'm not sure models like the navgem and dgex are of much use right now but that's only my opinion Actually in the past month the GGEM is number two by a wide margin and the Goofus is basically tied with the UKIE: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Actually in the past month the GGEM is number two by a wide margin and the Goofus is basically tied with the UKIE: Thats good because I'm hugging the 12z ggem like a 6 year old and a teddy bear during a 3am severe storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I know its NAM in lala land... but taking a peek at 72 makes me think that there would be some good things for those who like wintry precip down the road A good amount of energy is coming down the backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I know its NAM in lala land... but taking a peek at 72 makes me think that there would be some good things for those who like wintry precip down the road Yep, it looks like the GGEM to a tee. Comparing the 60hr NAM to the 12z GGEM at 72 it is hard to find anything different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Too bad its hr 84... 00z NAM looks pretty nice with a 997 SLP in E OK/NW AR area and a 1040 H just NW of the UP of MI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I know its NAM in lala land... but taking a peek at 72 makes me think that there would be some good things for those who like wintry precip down the road A good amount of energy is coming down the backside I'd like to see it a little further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I'd like to see it a little further south I know we're analyzing the NAM, but that confluence probably wouldn't allow it to come too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I'd like to see it a little further south It's actually pretty good where it is. Confluence looks plenty strong..high sliding down...that storm ain't cutting brotha. The sfc/850 maps are pretty impressive..1039 behemoth moving down in tandem with the low...it's a sweet set up on the 84 hour NAM. Caveats etc etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I understand the skepticism of a NAM solution at 84 hours when it comes in with some crazier solution that no other guidance shows, but this seems like a case where it is consistent with a lot of other pieces of the puzzle that we've seen earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 It's actually pretty good where it is. Confluence looks plenty strong..high sliding down...that storm ain't cutting brotha. The sfc/850 maps are pretty impressive..1039 behemoth moving down in tandem with the low...it's a sweet set up on the 84 hour NAM. Caveats etc etc pretty wound up would be the only thing I can see to give pause....but it's the N.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 SREF is colder than the NAM, which is good to see, mainly because it's not as wound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I understand the skepticism of a NAM solution at 84 hours when it comes in with some crazier solution that no other guidance shows, but this seems like a case where it is consistent with a lot of other pieces of the puzzle that we've seen earlier today. Good point. The nam isn't outside the envelope at all late in its range. Looked fine through 48 as well. No flags with the beginning of the 0z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 pretty wound up would be the only thing I can see to give pause....but it's the N.... Exactly what I was thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 RGEM @ 48 hours looks pretty similar to the NAM @ 48 hours, the GGEM usually follows closely to the RGEM in that range, so we'll see. It did back off on the strength of the wave down south a bit compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Anyone worried about the lack of salt supply in the counties? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Anyone worried about the lack of salt supply in the counties?It's mid march the snow will be gone in a day anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 It's mid march the snow will be gone in a day anyway. But they still need some for a couple of days... If we get 12 inches and 4 or 5 fall before sunrise... they could be in trouble. I remember back in 93... snow was on the roads for a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Through 24 hours the 00z GFS is farther west with that key piece of energy in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 GFS is still farther east with the energy down south, for example @ 54 hours the NAM has the energy in SE New Mexico, while the 00z GFS has it in N Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 @ 63 hours the energy down south is in Eastern Oklahoma on the GFS, on the 00z NAM it was phasing with the energy coming down from Canada and still in Texas. This is the major reason the GFS still isn't buying into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The good news is the RGEM @ 48 hours handles this energy down south just like the NAM, so my guess is the GGEM "should" look pretty good since it usually follows the RGEM relatively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Not going to stress over the GFS. Been there, done that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 GFS looks better at 72 hours vs 18z at h5...can't tell much beyond that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Nevermnd, looks to be doing the same hang back **** in the south west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Randy, look at the shortwave down south on the GFS/NAM....look at how it handles that at around 48-60 hours...See how the GFS kicks it east? The NAM/GGEM/EURO don't do this.. I think they'll meet in the middle somewhere, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Randy, look at the shortwave down south on the GFS/NAM....look at how it handles that at around 48-60 hours...See how the GFS kicks it east? The NAM/GGEM/EURO don't do this.. I think they'll meet in the middle somewhere, but we'll see. I see it...Since the gfs is on it's lonesome, I'm gonna brush it under the rug..not saying it can't be right...the scenario is plausible...but you would think that at this point some MAJOR global would have caught on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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