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ST Patricks Day Storm discussion


Ji

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Thought I saw the GFS ensemble with a decent event for us.

 

The members were basically spray. Pick a solution basically. 

 

With all other guidance not agreeing with gfs op and considering how it did with the 2/12 storm it's pretty easy to not hedge towards a squashed solution at this point. 

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12-15" verbatim. A huge hit with very cold temperatures. Looks oddly similar to the GGEM in totals and location. 

Those totals might have to be adjusted as the 850 to 700 layer is questionable during the day on Monday. There is a warm layer that doesn't want to budge much. I don't have access to soundings for the DGEX so some corrections to my assessment are welcome.

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The lead disturbance that the GFS kicked out too fast yesterday has now slowed down and doesn't look to be an issue.

 

The main issue today is how much northern stream energy cuts off in the southwest and how much comes east. The more energy that comes east the better the outcome. Another thing that would help this setup is if Highzenberg stops posting every thought that comes into his head on every subforum.

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The lead disturbance that the GFS kicked out too fast yesterday has now slowed down and doesn't look to be an issue.

 

The main issue today is how much northern stream energy cuts off in the southwest and how much comes east. The more energy that comes east the better the outcome. Another thing that would help this setup is if Highzenberg stops posting every thought that comes into his head on every subforum.

then put him on ignore....it's pretty simple

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Just to make sure I'm seeing things correctly, according to the SREF, its not keeping any energy held back and its phasing the NS and SS right?

 

Tough to say since we don't see beyond 87 hours, but theres a lot of energy on the backside of the trough, I'm sure it would still leave some behind. 

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