ravensrule Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Hearing the Euro ensemble mean takes the low off the NC coast, what you got Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Hearing the Euro ensemble mean takes the low off the NC coast, what you got Bob. Looks just like the op to me. Out to 120 on the precip panels. Nice hit from what I can tell so far. ETA: They look really good. About .50 liquid on the means. Plenty cold upstairs. Same timing as the op. Control sticks us pretty good with 6"+ region wide (okv/jyo jackpot) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Hearing the Euro ensemble mean takes the low off the NC coast, what you got Bob. I don't even have hr 24 yet on the EPS mean Must be off a paysite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The fact that we ar in the jackpot now does not bode well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Looks just like the op to me. Out to 120 on the precip panels. Nice hit from what I can tell so far. ETA: They look really good. About .50 liquid on the means. Plenty cold upstairs. Same timing as the op. Control sticks us pretty good with 6"+ region wide (okv/jyo jackpot) Thanks for the info Bob. I expect the GFS to come around by 0Z tonight or latest 12Z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I don't even have hr 24 yet on the EPS mean Must be off a paysite Yes it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 The fact that we ar in the jackpot now does not bode well.... were not really in the jackpot...were a bit north of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Thanks for the info Bob. I expect the GFS to come around by 0Z tonight or latest 12Z tomorrow. I'm not sure it matters at this point. Euro is locking in like a laser and the ggem is very similar. That's been a money combo with storms coming from the south all year. I think we're in really good shape at 4-5 day lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 were not really in the jackpot...were a bit north of it Yea, we're on the north end of the precip jackpot. Heaviest RAIN is in NC/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I'm not sure it matters at this point. Euro is locking in like a laser and the ggem is very similar. That's been a money combo with storms coming from the south all year. I think we're in really good shape at 4-5 day lead. Its good to see the EURO locking on and not budging much if at all... hopefully that 12z GGEM run will repeat itself tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Its good to see the EURO locking on and not budging much if at all... hopefully that 12z GGEM run will repeat itself tonight If member output is another step tighter than last night then I think some sort of accum snow is becoming likely. GFS will probably stripe us on the .25 fringe in an hour or so. If it pummels us them I'm going to start drinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 NAM looks GGEM-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Confidence increasing as just about all guidance trending toward this system impacting the Middle Atlantic to some extent. I would expect solutions to start honing in on things the next few days. Looks like more overtime coming lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The question is how much snow would it have to show for you to stay up for a 0Z Euro?. Well the timing on this one is nice because the two days preceding are Friday night and Saturday night when it's easier to stay up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 NAM looks much stronger then the 12z was...more amped..(again long range)...but sure does follow the other models if you extrapolate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Just for fun I'm interested to see what the DGEX does with the NAM @ 84 hours, it looks pretty awesome, great confluent PV & a nice shortwave down south. If only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Just for fun I'm interested to see what the DGEX does with the NAM @ 84 hours, it looks pretty awesome, great confluent PV & a nice shortwave down south. If only. Highzenberg, what do you think of the 500 @84 hours...on NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Highzenberg, what do you think of the 500 @84 hours...on NAM? Its 84 hours out on one of the worst models, but overall it actually took a step towards the globals with its handling of the vort that enters from Canada, There is a lot of energy on the backside of the trough so I imagine some of the energy would split off, but it looks like plenty would make it out for a nice storm for the area....It doesn't matter though. Would be nice if 18z GFS came around a bit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Would be nice if 18z GFS came around a bit though. Luckily we have 16 more gfs runs or so before it matters whether it catches on or not. I like the gfs a lot. But after what happened with the 2/12 storm it's pretty easy to not fret when all other reliable guidance says the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 One thing is for sure, I hope this is a monster QPF bomb and not some wimpy .40 over 12 hours thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 One thing is for sure, I hope this is a monster QPF bomb and not some wimpy .40 over 12 hours thing. Agreed. But with temps falling all night long and even during the day Monday (according to the Euro), some lighter rates might be good enough for this time of year. The beginning might be a bit dicey but by the wee hours of the morning we are looking at 20's and no sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 One thing is for sure, I hope this is a monster QPF bomb and not some wimpy .40 over 12 hours thing. warmer air to the south this time of year may aid in that all other things being equal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Agreed. But with temps falling all night long and even during the day Monday (according to the Euro), some lighter rates might be good enough for this time of year. The beginning might be a bit dicey but by the wee hours of the morning we are looking at 20's and no sun angle. it will have to come down hard to stick on the streets regardless, but the schools will be closed even with a few flakes sticking....think of the children!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 One thing is for sure, I hope this is a monster QPF bomb and not some wimpy .40 over 12 hours thing. If this is anything like March 1958 or even March 1956, I'll be ecstatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 If this is anything like March 1958 or even March 1956, I'll be ecstatic. March 93 or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 If this is anything like March 1958 or even March 1956, I'll be ecstatic. I mean I'd hope so...If its anything like Blizzard of 96 I'd be happy I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I mean I'd hope so...If its anything like Blizzard of 96 I'd be happy I guess . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 . Guess you missed the sarcasm ? I want March 58 II honestly, 50" in parts of PA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Euro member output is out for md but not dc/va yet. They got better but not as much as I was hoping for. 13 members show 6"+ for kgai. Just under 4" on the means. 43 show some accum snow. Precip is right at .50 which matches my estimate on the 6hr panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Guess you missed the sarcasm ? I want March 58 II honestly, 50" in parts of PA! No i got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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