Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 GEFS are a splatter. I'll just hug p3 and p8 and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The OP GFS is by far the most southern of all the GFS members for the most part, they are still all over the place, but there are def good hits mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 It's going to be above freezing for a while sun aft and evening. no way around that. Rain or non-accum snow is definitely on the menu no, I know, I don't have a problem with that one iota I always love rain changing to snow when a big dump is to follow....because I'm such a pathetic weenie, I love driving around and finding the rain/snow line and being 10 minutes from the official piedmont where it's 400' asl and 5 minutes from the coastal plain where it's 50' or less, there can be some incredible variations a few minutes from mby in one direction or the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 GGEM has been out in front of a few storms this winter, if I recall. Especially the snowy ones. BOOK IT MY FRIEND. HECS FOR ALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 That's a lot of modeled snow (~1.5-1.6" qpf): This is reminiscent of the Feb 13 storm. Euro and GGEM onto something early, GFS out to sea and slowly coming around. You all are in a much better mood this time around though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 EURO looks better so far, stronger and farther west with energy down south...it looks really similar to CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 EURO has more phasing going on @ 84 hours, not as much as GGEM, but this should be better than 00z I imagine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Safe to say it will be farther N than 00z EURO, but not as far north as 12z GGEM, great step in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Highzenberg 74 Bob Chill 71 stormtracker 35 Ji 33 Ian 31 yoda 23 hosj III 16 mitchnick 14 Warrior Bigfoot 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Highzenberg 74 Bob Chill 71 stormtracker 35 Ji 33 Ian 31 yoda 23 hosj III 16 mitchnick 14 Warrior Bigfoot 13 Yea but they were like my posts, most with very little substance . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Highzenberg 74 Bob Chill 71 stormtracker 35 Ji 33 Ian 31 yoda 23 hosj III 16 mitchnick 14 Warrior Bigfoot 13 The true believers in the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 EURO going to do well in DC by next frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 EURO took another baby step, it still split energy, but it brought a bit more with it....Love the H5 look, can only improve here on out. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grb-comp.cgi?re=namer&mo=ecmwf&va=c500&ft=h120&cu=latest≥=800x630&ti=UTC&id=&zoom=.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Euro drops 3-4" through the corridor between 2am-8am. Perfect timing. And more to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Highzenberg 74 Bob Chill 71 stormtracker 35 Ji 33 Ian 31 yoda 23 hosj III 16 mitchnick 14 Warrior Bigfoot 13 It's wonderful, isn't it?! True believers tracking snow in snow season and having a ball, without derisive.... never mind.... I'll make a special exception for you if you want to come back now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I love this run, verbatim its a solid SECS for our area and has a lot of room to look even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Euro drops 3-4" through the corridor between 2am-8am. Perfect timing. And more to come That's not total is it? Looks like a lot more? I have one frame (120) with .5, the next .25? Well considering March sun, etc...probably is a solid 4". I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I'm still hugging the ggem but this is acceptable. First 2" falls above freezing. Could be rain of course. The rest is money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I'm still hugging the ggem but this is acceptable. First 2" falls above freezing. Could be rain of course. The rest is money. eurosno.JPG Yeah, solid 4" with 8:1 ratio prolly. I'd take it in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Long-time reader of this thread, infrequent poster on this thread. Just wanted to say, "Keep up the good work, we are all counting on you." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I'm still hugging the ggem but this is acceptable. First 2" falls above freezing. Could be rain of course. The rest is money. eurosno.JPG once Matt sees that it's a MA special with a sharp cut-off just north of 40N, he'll be back in here posting too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Yeah, solid 4" with 8:1 ratio prolly. I'd take it in a heartbeat. It's a nice event verbatim. Best stuff falls during prime night hours. Still below freezing and snowing @ 8am. Is it time to really start believing and get serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Euro is a bit wetter than I though overall. It's a .8-1" qpf deal. We'll lose a chunk to rain/above freezing ground but the majority would stick. I like tracker's math. Solid 4" event considering ratios/melt/possible rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The prospects of a good snow storm for the area after what is happening today is awesome. I'll be on "spring" break too. Bring it on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Temps @ 2am are around 34 on the panels. Drops to mid-upper 20's by 8am. Would stick to the streets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The true believers in the storm Is it time to really start believing and get serious? I think just because we don't post doesn't mean we aren't "believers". Having said that, even though there is starting to be some model consensus, we know how fickle they have been outside of 72 to 120 hrs. And moon angle to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 Euro is a bit wetter than I though overall. It's a .8-1" qpf deal. We'll lose a chunk to rain/above freezing ground but the majority would stick. I like tracker's math. Solid 4" event considering ratios/melt/possible rain. its went north again at 12z. The 00z and 12z oscillations are weird but lets hope the GGEM solution works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 GGEM + EURO = The Highzenberg Storm. I'm starting to feel this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Temps @ 2am are around 34 on the panels. Drops to mid-upper 20's by 8am. Would stick to the streets. I'm calling 42 @ 2 am at DCA and 35 by 8am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 its went north again at 12z. The 00z and 12z oscillations are weird but lets hope the GGEM solution works out. The track of the euro is fine for us. It's also very similar to last nights ens mean. We could do quite well with the same track and wetter storm. Euro is inside of 5 days now. Precip on the doorstep @ d4.5. GFS made a marked step towards the euro solution. We'll hashing out how much come Saturday and not if imo. Looking pretty good for the dc-bwi crew. Seems to get dicier the further n you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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