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ST Patricks Day Storm discussion


Ji

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It has work to do, but at least it's a more interesting solution. Hopefully the rest of the guidance is more intriguing.

 

What are your thoughts on the possibility of a light/moderate MA event? I think those odds have been increasing every day from the looks of things. In a way i'm kinda rooting against a big coastal because it would have more ptype issues for us unless the stars align. Something lighter/suppressed with more cold in our neck may server our area better. I know you guys up there are rooting for a monster. There would be no ptype/temp issues unless it tracked inland and even then. Pretty decent cold hp in a good spot for areas further north. 

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What are your thoughts on the possibility of a light/moderate MA event? I think those odds have been increasing every day from the looks of things. In a way i'm kinda rooting against a big coastal because it would have more ptype issues for us unless the stars align. Something lighter/suppressed with more cold in our neck may server our area better. I know you guys up there are rooting for a monster. There would be no ptype/temp issues unless it tracked inland and even then. Pretty decent cold hp in a good spot for areas further north. 

 

It's certainly possibly at this point. About all you can really say. I think what you don't want is the timing to be during the day and also a strung out POS. If it's during the day, you want the storm cranking to drop heavy precip rates. Nighttime can afford less rates, but 1-2SM -SN during the day probably won't cut it unless it's in the U20s and on the grass.  That high is in a good spot and the air is cold. Cold supply is the most important thing.

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SREFs should not be mentioned 87 hrs out. Automatic weenie tag.

 

However, that was a sizeable change in the whole structure. Almost a nod to what the euro did yesterday.

What about mentioning the DGEX?

 

On a serious note, the GFS made a huge change from 0z and even 6z.....it'll get it together by 0z tonight.

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If this storm comes to fruition--it's got to be called "The Highzenberg".  Ian must approve.  :whistle:

Ha!  Well played!  At this time, this far out, maybe it should be the "Uncertain Highzenberg" (a'la the Hisenberg Uncertainty Principle).  Actually, people have kind of "blasted" him on his optimism over various storms this year, but I've honestly liked his input and analysis for the most part.  Maybe a bit gung-ho at times, but nothing over the top.  I prefer some optimism.

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What are your thoughts on the possibility of a light/moderate MA event? I think those odds have been increasing every day from the looks of things. In a way i'm kinda rooting against a big coastal because it would have more ptype issues for us unless the stars align. Something lighter/suppressed with more cold in our neck may server our area better. I know you guys up there are rooting for a monster. There would be no ptype/temp issues unless it tracked inland and even then. Pretty decent cold hp in a good spot for areas further north. 

I think any of us would take a "monster" if it actually looked realistic (and good), of course.  But realisically something along the lines of March 25 last year would be kinda nice.  Yeah, that snow was gone pretty much by the end of the day, but it fell at the perfect time and it was cold.  Not to mention very pretty and good to photograph (and happened to be my birthday too!).

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whats causing the shortwave to drift SW instead of being ejected east? Is it because its closing?

 

gfs_namer_084_500_vort_ht_s.gif

 

I don't know the exact answer, but I do know that the model runs that don't do that phase the energy that dives down from Canada with that shortwave around Texas, like the NAM for example if you watch its H5 evolution. 

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whats causing the shortwave to drift SW instead of being ejected east? Is it because its closing?

 

 

 

I could be wrong but look how far it digs from the flow to the north. Then it closes off an becomes on it's own. The closed 582 ridge off the ca coast kinda acts like a flow vacuum and tugs on it. The strong ul winds to the south are out in front and not underneath.  

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Thank you.  Of course, regardless of anyone's opinion on naming anything other than hurricanes, IF this develops into anything, there's sure to be some stupid media name connected to Monday.

We're on Vulcan now, so the next one is bound to be Wilford, Willy, Wilbur, etc.
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