Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 It has work to do, but at least it's a more interesting solution. Hopefully the rest of the guidance is more intriguing. What are your thoughts on the possibility of a light/moderate MA event? I think those odds have been increasing every day from the looks of things. In a way i'm kinda rooting against a big coastal because it would have more ptype issues for us unless the stars align. Something lighter/suppressed with more cold in our neck may server our area better. I know you guys up there are rooting for a monster. There would be no ptype/temp issues unless it tracked inland and even then. Pretty decent cold hp in a good spot for areas further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 What are your thoughts on the possibility of a light/moderate MA event? I think those odds have been increasing every day from the looks of things. In a way i'm kinda rooting against a big coastal because it would have more ptype issues for us unless the stars align. Something lighter/suppressed with more cold in our neck may server our area better. I know you guys up there are rooting for a monster. There would be no ptype/temp issues unless it tracked inland and even then. Pretty decent cold hp in a good spot for areas further north. It's certainly possibly at this point. About all you can really say. I think what you don't want is the timing to be during the day and also a strung out POS. If it's during the day, you want the storm cranking to drop heavy precip rates. Nighttime can afford less rates, but 1-2SM -SN during the day probably won't cut it unless it's in the U20s and on the grass. That high is in a good spot and the air is cold. Cold supply is the most important thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 SREFs should not be mentioned 87 hrs out. Automatic weenie tag. However, that was a sizeable change in the whole structure. Almost a nod to what the euro did yesterday. What about mentioning the DGEX? On a serious note, the GFS made a huge change from 0z and even 6z.....it'll get it together by 0z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 If this storm comes to fruition--it's got to be called "The Highzenberg". Ian must approve. Ha! Well played! At this time, this far out, maybe it should be the "Uncertain Highzenberg" (a'la the Hisenberg Uncertainty Principle). Actually, people have kind of "blasted" him on his optimism over various storms this year, but I've honestly liked his input and analysis for the most part. Maybe a bit gung-ho at times, but nothing over the top. I prefer some optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 whats causing the shortwave to drift SW instead of being ejected east? Is it because its closing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 What about mentioning the DGEX? Termination with extreme prejudice. The penalty should be even worse for talking about the DGEX for a tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 What are your thoughts on the possibility of a light/moderate MA event? I think those odds have been increasing every day from the looks of things. In a way i'm kinda rooting against a big coastal because it would have more ptype issues for us unless the stars align. Something lighter/suppressed with more cold in our neck may server our area better. I know you guys up there are rooting for a monster. There would be no ptype/temp issues unless it tracked inland and even then. Pretty decent cold hp in a good spot for areas further north. I think any of us would take a "monster" if it actually looked realistic (and good), of course. But realisically something along the lines of March 25 last year would be kinda nice. Yeah, that snow was gone pretty much by the end of the day, but it fell at the perfect time and it was cold. Not to mention very pretty and good to photograph (and happened to be my birthday too!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 If this storm comes to fruition--it's got to be called "The Highzenberg". Ian must approve. Nyet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 whats causing the shortwave to drift SW instead of being ejected east? Is it because its closing? I don't know the exact answer, but I do know that the model runs that don't do that phase the energy that dives down from Canada with that shortwave around Texas, like the NAM for example if you watch its H5 evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 whats causing the shortwave to drift SW instead of being ejected east? Is it because its closing? I could be wrong but look how far it digs from the flow to the north. Then it closes off an becomes on it's own. The closed 582 ridge off the ca coast kinda acts like a flow vacuum and tugs on it. The strong ul winds to the south are out in front and not underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 GGEM is a nice set up. Looks like the primary runs into the high and redevelops. Temps are close...sfc freezing just a hair north of dc...850 a hair south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Actually GGEM looks like a pummeling if I'm reading these precip maps right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Yeah, that's light blue over us. GGEM destroys us...heavy rates...6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 And boom goes the dynamite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 GGEM looks like heavy wet snow bomb... 850s are fine... surface temp hangs around freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Storm, can you post some more maps? My source is coming out slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The 132 map that shows 24 hr QPF has 1.66 max out by Centreville... most of the region sees 1.25-1.50 QPF except for W MD (west of HGR or so) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 GGEM wow....I didnt think this was going to be a rain event. It was snow or no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 feels good to track an event that i dont have to fly out of town and Miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Nyet Thank you. Of course, regardless of anyone's opinion on naming anything other than hurricanes, IF this develops into anything, there's sure to be some stupid media name connected to Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 feels good to track an event that i dont have to fly out of town and Miss so....what's your girlfriend's name? not married either.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Hope this is okay to post... if not please delete then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Thank you. Of course, regardless of anyone's opinion on naming anything other than hurricanes, IF this develops into anything, there's sure to be some stupid media name connected to Monday.We're on Vulcan now, so the next one is bound to be Wilford, Willy, Wilbur, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 thats one of the nicest Highs ive seen in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The snow maps on Raleigh are weenie porn Prob would be the biggest March snowstorm for most ever around here Wes would be sad though as there is a VERY intense gradient -- St. Marys gets 1-3 and DC gets 12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Thank you. Of course, regardless of anyone's opinion on naming anything other than hurricanes, IF this develops into anything, there's sure to be some stupid media name connected to Monday. Leprastorm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 ggem march madness. this is through 126. Not sure it's even done yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Weeniebell GGEM snow maps show 10" DC to Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Leprastorm.... the GEM looks more like Lepraporn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 ggem march madness. this is through 126. Not sure it's even done yet. ggemsno.JPG I didn't see you posted that, sorry lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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