yoda Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I am going to guess that the 00z GFS crushes this again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 GFS aint havin' none of that nonsense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Hope I'm wrong but the Euro and GGEM are most likely incorrect with this system. GFS looks horrid, a lot of improvements must be made in the next 12-24 hrs for any hope. I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro and GGEM fold to the GFS tonight. Would love one last decent snowfall this winter but the clock is ticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 We're still in LR for the GFS, if the EURO takes a step back and the GFS still doesn't show much at 18z tomorrow I'll start to give up, but until then I'm still feeling good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 GGEM has the storm..but warmer...rain front loaded..maybe a little frozen on the way out. Important thing is...it's nothing like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 GGEM has the storm..but warmer...rain front loaded..maybe a little frozen on the way out. Important thing is...it's nothing like the GFS +1, GFS is having issues with the wave down south that phases with the energy coming down from Canada, look at the NAM/GGEM @ 84 hours vs. the GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 0z Euro has the storm, but it slides just to the south (suppression!)...it's a healthy storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 0z Euro has the storm, but it slides just to the south (suppression!)...it's a healthy storm it gives Richmond like 6-10 inches....Im in. 00z keeps showing supression but 12z shows more northerly the past few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Suppression is good at this lead time, and esp in mid March, and the idea of it nailing Richmond is a guarantee it wont verify verbatim. Its going to come north, just a question of how far. Hard to buy a PV of doom suppression deal this far into March, and there still is no blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Hope I'm wrong but the Euro and GGEM are most likely incorrect with this system. GFS looks horrid, a lot of improvements must be made in the next 12-24 hrs for any hope. I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro and GGEM fold to the GFS tonight. Would love one last decent snowfall this winter but the clock is ticking. Is it always dark and cloudy at your house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 it gives Richmond like 6-10 inches....Im in. 00z keeps showing supression but 12z shows more northerly the past few runs Another improvement with ind ens members overnight. Pretty solid. MSLP/precip panels do show an east shift for folks further north. Good hit here. I'm with you. 12z should look pretty good today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Another improvement with ind ens members overnight. Pretty solid. MSLP/precip panels do show an east shift for folks further north. Good hit here. I'm with you. 12z should look pretty good today. If you wouldn't mind Bob what do they show up our way? I'm 50 miles W of Phila? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Hope I'm wrong but the Euro and GGEM are most likely incorrect with this system. GFS looks horrid, a lot of improvements must be made in the next 12-24 hrs for any hope. I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro and GGEM fold to the GFS tonight. Would love one last decent snowfall this winter but the clock is ticking. Thanks for your brilliant insight as to why one model is correct and others are wrong. Please provide more today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The euro ens mean looks way more robust than the OP I imagine its a big hit for DC, though without seeing individuals I can't tell if the mean is skewed with inland runners and out to sea-ers or if there are a lot of really good hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 There are a lot of 6z gfs members that are now way different than OP, i expect a pretty drastic change on the GFS soon based on the ggem/euro/ensembles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 6z NAM also looked way more favorable (6z dgex was inland)... I'm personally more concerned about an inland hit than missing it to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The euro ens mean looks way more robust than the OP I imagine its a big hit for DC, though without seeing individuals I can't tell if the mean is skewed with inland runners and out to sea-ers or if there are a lot of really good hits I don't see precip like Bob or others do... but the ensemble mean has a 1005 L near AL/GA border (south-central part) with a 1031 H in the NW portion of the UP of Michigan... 0c 850 line crosses through DCA. 144 is a 1004 L prob 200-300 miles ENE of Cape Hatteras NC with 850s -6 to -8 across the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 9z SREF 500mb at 87 hours looks terrific, GFS is going to cave today, im feeling really good for our regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 9z SREF 500mb at 87 hours looks terrific, GFS is going to cave today, im feeling really good for our regions. If this pans out you should get some credit for sticking with it. I get the feeling even you realize this is our last chance hence for once you actually have tracked a storm less than 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Hope I'm wrong but the Euro and GGEM are most likely incorrect with this system. GFS looks horrid, a lot of improvements must be made in the next 12-24 hrs for any hope. I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro and GGEM fold to the GFS tonight. Would love one last decent snowfall this winter but the clock is ticking. Explain, in detailed scientific terms and reasoning, why they are most likely incorrect. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 If this pans out you should get some credit for sticking with it. I get the feeling even you realize this is our last chance hence for once you actually have tracked a storm less than 10 days out. True, but to be fair, Bob myself and a few others stuck with it too...even as we were being mocked on DBM by Ohleary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Explain, in detailed scientific terms and reasoning, why they are most likely incorrect. Thanks. Because he wants it to be spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I know its the NAM, yadda yadda yadda, but icez is right....6z NAM looks to be gearing up for something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 True, but to be fair, Bob myself and a few others stuck with it too...even as we were being mocked on DBM by Ohleary LOL..i started the storm thread 9 days before the "supposed event" start date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Because he wants it to be spring. So do I, but I won't pretend to know anything about why one model would be more correct over others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 True, but to be fair, Bob myself and a few others stuck with it too...even as we were being mocked on DBM by Ohleary It's been an interesting period non-stop since we first started discussing it. That's all we're doing is discussing various solutions, important features, and possibilities. The drive by schleprocks make themselves look foolish. We've never once said it's a high prob event or anything. The potential for snow has been there day in day out. If it all goes poof it's no big deal. If we get a decent snow in mid march then weatherwise it's a pretty big deal. If it becomes imminent all the schleps, eeyores, and debs will be all excited with imby questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 LOL..i started the storm thread 9 days before the "supposed event" start date Well you're in there by default dude. Duh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I don't see precip like Bob or others do... but the ensemble mean has a 1005 L near AL/GA border (south-central part) with a 1031 H in the NW portion of the UP of Michigan... 0c 850 line crosses through DCA. 144 is a 1004 L prob 200-300 miles ENE of Cape Hatteras NC with 850s -6 to -8 across the region Ens precip panels show precip approaching or in the area by 8pm on Sunday. Best panels are overnight. 850's aren't an issue. I'm sure bl temps are going to be a problem until early morning hours but the best period looks to be between midnight-8am or so at least the timing is as good as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Ens precip panels show precip approaching or in the area by 8pm on Sunday. Best panels are overnight. 850's aren't an issue. I'm sure bl temps are going to be a problem until early morning hours but the best period looks to be between midnight-8am or so at least the timing is as good as it gets. the fact that we are in our 5th month in a row tracking possible snow events puts this winter in a special category if the pattern can hold for 3 more weeks, April would make it 6 months, which is unprecedented in these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Ens precip panels show precip approaching or in the area by 8pm on Sunday. Best panels are overnight. 850's aren't an issue. I'm sure bl temps are going to be a problem until early morning hours but the best period looks to be between midnight-8am or so at least the timing is as good as it gets. It is going to be a bi**h waiting up until 2:30 starting tomorrow night. I am way to old for this, but for one last hoorah to a great winter i will sacrifice my sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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