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ST Patricks Day Storm discussion


Ji

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I'll enjoy the snow if it happens though it would be nice to get some bloom going first. Not sure that's going to happen.. still waiting on the early/winter cherries. They are having a rough year. Crocus don't count.. they are the dummies of the flower kingdom.  

 

I just can't wishcast very well in midwinter let alone March... so we gotta close a bit more.   

even they are late this year, only just a couple inches high here

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Bob, I know this sounds weenie-ish, but any of the EURO ensembles have 15"+ solutions?

Prob 3 in the upper teens. Could probably slant stick 20+" though. Or just adjust the color scheme on the monitor. One of them is a multi event 18"+/-.

If this period doesn't produce, are you going to be ok?

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I'm 100% in.

All of you people who defected, don't come back if this storm happens. You turncoated already. It's winter. Snow should still happen. We get that you're tired of the snow and cold and want the tulips to bloom, the birds to sing and the thunderstorms to march in, but get out. We don't need you bandwagoners come Sunday.

Shun the non believers!!!!

Ahem, this is my first and only post bc I didn't want to ruin it for you snow lovers. So, :P

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Prob 3 in the upper teens. Could probably slant stick 20+" though. Or just adjust the color scheme on the monitor. One of them is a multi event 18"+/-.

If this period doesn't produce, are you going to be ok?

I really love Highzenberg but he is definitely the frontrunner for WOTY.

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Looking at the 18z GFS & 12z EURO, I can see the reason the GFS isn't showing doing much, the EURO leaves behind a lot of the energy from that shortwave @ 60 hours, it actually develops the low on that wave. The 18z GFS lagged that energy back a bit more compared to 12z, but it isn't there just yet. 

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I'll enjoy the snow if it happens though it would be nice to get some bloom going first. Not sure that's going to happen.. still waiting on the early/winter cherries. They are having a rough year. Crocus don't count.. they are the dummies of the flower kingdom.  

 

I just can't wishcast very well in midwinter let alone March... so we gotta close a bit more.   

I hear ya about getting Spring going.  I also know that I have had more model snow this year than ever before, so it's hard to get too pumped at this point.   However, I'm of the mindset that we have 8-9 months ahead to enjoy warmer weather.  Any snow in March is a gift and I'll take it.  Plus, it's always more fun when you are on board. 

 

MDstorm

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Well put. I've been waiting for the dagger every day but it keeps getting better...for now. I kinda expect snow to fall from the sky next week. But something that has to be shoveled can only be really bought into inside of 48 hours...and even then...recent memories keep me humble.

I guess me wishcasting no snow isn't any better. I suppose I'll go in enough not to just troll for a miss.. if the GFS gets on board. ;) 

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I hear ya about getting Spring going.  I also know that I have had more model snow this year than ever before, so it's hard to get too pumped at this point.   However, I'm of the mindset that we have 8-9 months ahead to enjoy warmer weather.  Any snow in March is a gift and I'll take it.  Plus, it's always more fun when you are on board. 

 

MDstorm

 

I love snow but hate cold so it's always a difficult game. However, if it's going to be cold either way... then I guess I can root for snow. 

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I guess me wishcasting no snow isn't any better. I suppose I'll go in enough not to just troll for a miss.. if the GFS gets on board. ;)

you'll prob have to wait until Sunday night for the gfs. As long as the euro+ens keep doing what they're doing I can toss the gfs without a second thought. However, I won't expect a moderate+ event until half is already on the ground.

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Euro and GGEM are slower to eject the main shortwave. On the GFS it seems to kick out faster and it robs the main shortwave of moisture instead of phasing. 

 

Although I doubt 1983 plays out, it was a similar setup where a cutoff formed in eastern Mexico.  If it snows I'd rather it be a big one, a 2-4 event in March isn't going to change my opinion of winter. 10"+ would move it from good to epic.

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Prob 3 in the upper teens. Could probably slant stick 20+" though. Or just adjust the color scheme on the monitor. One of them is a multi event 18"+/-.

If this period doesn't produce, are you going to be ok?

He's already looking at day 15 for the next day 10 event.

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I'm 100% in.

All of you people who defected, don't come back if this storm happens. You turncoated already. It's winter. Snow should still happen. We get that you're tired of the snow and cold and want the tulips to bloom, the birds to sing and the thunderstorms to march in, but get out. We don't need you bandwagoners come Sunday.

Shun the non believers!!!!

I don't really care what happens, but can I come back? I miss you guys!

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I'm always up for snow in March if we can get it, but I know where I live. I dont live in Westminster MD. That area can see snow in May. I live on the fall line. My climate is subtropical. I also hate summer with a vengeance. Too bad I have to spend summer in Austin. I'll be cryin enough rivers to flood the Sahara for 25 billion years.

 

 

Don't get me wrong, I hate spring, but the trees are blooming in Dale City. The trees know.

 

I want snow in March but my problem is simple. I never had the guts to move the hell north.

 

So I'll take rain this month and I'll be so excited about it that I won't even be able to sleep.

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I'm just a lurker and have no business posting since I have nothing to offer.  Since moving to NOVA 2 years ago from Florida, I've found I'm addicted to winter and snocaine. I'm not ready to let go if there is another shot at snow.   I enjoy reading everyone's analysis of storms and I learn more each day.  The prettiest snows I've seen were in March last year and I am hoping for a repeat.

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EURO has the best timing. Late night and overnight snows are a must this time of the year. I recall last March 18th and 25th were overnight/early morning events.

Source region is much more ripe this time If we can actually get a storm turning. Last march had 30's to basically canada.

Overnight sun would be ideal because subfreezing surface and 950's would actually be in place pre-onset and colder to the N. It would still be a feat against climo but temps won't be what we focus on this go around. It's more an organized precip thing. It could be a case where .3 liquid has a chance to accumulate

I'm invested in the novelty but ready for a no nevermind

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This thing still has a pulse. Impressive. Agree that a 2-4 is kinda meh. We have had a good run. #thankful

Only if you don't care about climo at all. 2-4 probably not as big for you as DC past Mar 15 but still a good storm for this late.

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