Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 On 3/12/2014 at 2:35 PM, ravensrule said: It is going to be a bi**h waiting up until 2:30 starting tomorrow night. I am way to old for this, but for one last hoorah to a great winter i will sacrifice my sleep. not worth staying up tbh. Odds will be against us until snow is actually on the ground. Would be nice to see the gfs make a move today but even if it doesn't it's still not that far off of the other solutions. It's all about the pv placement and models have proven to be quite inaccurate with that even @ 48 hours. Progressive flow is a beeyotch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 12z NAM loaded at h5 @84 hours. I'm skipping the usual caveats about the NAM...we should all know them by now and I am admittedly in full weenie mode. It's probably the last shot of the season...screw it...let's have fun yall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 On 3/12/2014 at 2:49 PM, stormtracker said: 12z NAM loaded at h5 @84 hours. I'm skipping the usual caveats about the NAM...we should all know them by now and I am admittedly in full weenie mode. It's probably the last shot of the season...screw it...let's have fun yall. The NAM is most likely incorrect here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 On 3/12/2014 at 2:32 PM, mitchnick said: the fact that we are in our 5th month in a row tracking possible snow events puts this winter in a special category if the pattern can hold for 3 more weeks, April would make it 6 months, which is unprecedented in these parts The only thing 'unprecedented' would be the wailing's coming from the 'springers' if that happened. On 3/12/2014 at 2:49 PM, stormtracker said: 12z NAM loaded at h5 @84 hours. I'm skipping the usual caveats about the NAM...we should all know them by now and I am admittedly in full weenie mode. It's probably the last shot of the season...screw it...let's have fun yall. LOL, best all-in of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 On 3/12/2014 at 2:56 PM, wxdude64 said: The only thing 'unprecedented' would be the wailing's coming from the 'springers' if that happened. LOL, best all-in of the year! I guess it's worth mentioning another decent cold shot is showing up on the euro ens for the 23-26th timeframe. And I agree, randy cracks me up. Nam does look kinda tasty @ h5. I extrapolated a MA special with ease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 On 3/12/2014 at 2:54 PM, leesburg 04 said: The NAM is most likely incorrect here Yes, yes.... Most likely incorrect is the word i'm hearing from others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 84 hr NAM at h5 also has a nice ridge building in the west as well... I am with Bob Chill and Randy... ALL IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 We just need GooFuS to come aboard. I want to be NAMd, GGEMd and EUROd today. I can't get enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Can we make a non weenie thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 On 3/12/2014 at 3:14 PM, Ian said: Can we make a non weenie thread? I suppose we could. Not sure who will post in it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 On 3/12/2014 at 3:14 PM, Ian said: Can we make a non weenie thread? you're closing down the site??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Looks like 12z GFS refuses to entertain any thoughts of snow once again through 102... hooray flurries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 On 3/12/2014 at 3:59 PM, yoda said: Looks like 12z GFS refuses to entertain any thoughts of snow once again through 102... hooray flurries? Dude, it's a huge change from 6z. Compare the panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I wonder what York thinks about the 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 On 3/12/2014 at 4:00 PM, Bob Chill said: Dude, it's a huge change from 6z. Compare the panels. I was just about to post that after looking at the h5 panels... still wish it would come on board more though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Looks like a storm, just suppressed at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 GFS is doing its run by run slow cave to the other globals, it'll come around, i GARUANTEE there will be some huge hits on the ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 On 3/12/2014 at 4:01 PM, yoda said: I was just about to post that after looking at the h5 panels... still wish it would come on board more though In one run it went from squashed nothing to a close call. If anything this run is the gfs coming on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 If GFS would of had more energy phase with the shorteave down south it would of been real nice, as is, it is close...Once again, feeling really, really good right now. I still would like the EURO OP to show a big hit though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 SREFs should not be mentioned 87 hrs out. Automatic weenie tag. However, that was a sizeable change in the whole structure. Almost a nod to what the euro did yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 On 3/12/2014 at 4:03 PM, Bob Chill said: In one run it went from squashed nothing to a close call. If anything this run is the gfs coming on board. Yeah overall at H5 it looks pretty close with the EURO, it just didn't bring out enough energy...it will likely keep ticking better and better each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 On 3/12/2014 at 4:05 PM, CoastalWx said: SREFs should not be mentioned 87 hrs out. Automatic weenie tag. However, that was a sizeable change in the whole structure. Almost a nod to what the euro did yesterday. Yep, I posted that when they came out, they look like the NAM @ 84 hours FWIW.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 On 3/12/2014 at 4:05 PM, Highzenberg said: Yep, I posted that when they came out, they look like the NAM @ 84 hours FWIW.... I'm not sure when you never felt good about a storm...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Even with the crappy solution of the GFS it still gives snow for parts of VA, imagine if it keeps looking better & better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 On 3/12/2014 at 4:07 PM, CoastalWx said: I'm not sure when you never felt good about a storm...lol. Well said! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 On 3/12/2014 at 4:07 PM, CoastalWx said: I'm not sure when you never felt good about a storm...lol. My issue is that I post about storms in the LR, I only mention threats though not specifics.... but when they start looking bad (like tomorrows storm), I back off...I really like this one. I posted about the 12-14th event 8-9 days out, got blasted for it, but a storm is occurring, I posted about this threat when it was 8-10 days out and I'm getting blasted on it. If we get to 72 hours out and I don't like what I see, of course I back off. People ignore that about me unfortunately I get a bad wrap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 On 3/12/2014 at 4:03 PM, Bob Chill said: In one run it went from squashed nothing to a close call. If anything this run is the gfs coming on board. Yeah major change. GFS is getting a clue now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 On 3/12/2014 at 4:08 PM, Highzenberg said: My issue is that I post about storms in the LR, I only mention threats though not specifics.... but when they start looking bad (like tomorrows storm), I back off...I really like this one. It has work to do, but at least it's a more interesting solution. Hopefully the rest of the guidance is more intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 If this storm comes to fruition--it's got to be called "The Highzenberg". Ian must approve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 There is plenty of room for a good storm even without worrying about the ul energy basically over mexico city on the gfs. The ull ejects a piece as it digs away and then another ns vort comes in and joins the party. Yea, an evolution like this isn't good for a big coastal but it's definitely enough to give us an ok event here in the dc area. A 3-6" event would be a triple imo. Home runs in march are spread out by decades. Not really going to buy into that unless it's stark obvious. A nice blanket of snow would be quite satisfying and a good stats padder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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