Yeoman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 6:43 PM, Ji said: it actually does look pretty good at 500 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 6:55 PM, olafminesaw said: Bleh, this run was warm and started pushing warm air in towards the end of the storm. ? 850's crashed and it dumped snow at the end with below freezing surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Really, at this point, I'd be happy with any "storm" that drops 1" or more. Sure, a foot in mid-March would be awesome, but I'd be happy with a solid 2-4" snowfall. On the other hand, I wanna lock in this EURO, because It gives me 10-12" of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 7:00 PM, Bob Chill said: ? 850's crashed and it dumped snow at the end with below freezing surface Yeah, if anything it was the opposite of what he said...However, it could of been a lot better if it didn't dig as far south. A bit weaker and more positive tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 6:55 PM, olafminesaw said: Bleh, this run was warm and started pushing warm air in towards the end of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Look, it is still a long shot, but if this shortwave enters the conus at the right "angle", the setup is there for it to explode, and we actually do have a cold air source. It will take timing as usual, but I'm just happy we have something to track before winter concludes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 EURO ens mean looks better than 00z, I guess a lot depends if we can get the storm to close off at the right latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 8:25 PM, Highzenberg said: EURO ens mean looks better than 00z, I guess a lot depends if we can get the storm to close off at the right latitude. not sure what JMA doing...it has like 3 storms in 3 days but it stormy and cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 8:25 PM, Highzenberg said: EURO ens mean looks better than 00z, I guess a lot depends if we can get the storm to close off at the right latitude. MSLP + 850 panels suggest a straight up miller A. Cold snow. No strung out POS. I'm hugging those for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 8:37 PM, Bob Chill said: MSLP + 850 panels suggest a straight up miller A. Cold snow. No strung out POS. I'm hugging those for now this storm is it. This will put me over 100 inches since year 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 8:37 PM, Bob Chill said: MSLP + 850 panels suggest a straight up miller A. Cold snow. No strung out POS. I'm hugging those for now Where do you find the EURO members panel on WeatherBELL? I've looked at them before but I forgot where they are lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 So I guess we've gone from chasing unicorns to chasing leprechauns now!! Similar in that it's like trying to find the elusive pot of gold at the end of a rainbow! In all seriousness, looks intriguing, maybe something to keep an eye on, but not getting too invested unless it's looking good closer in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 8:47 PM, Ji said: this storm is it. This will put me over 100 inches since year 2000 euro ens run looked really good tbh (not awful pretty). I'm sure plenty of snowy solutions are on tap once ind member output comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 8:51 PM, Warrior Bigfoot said: Where do you find the EURO members panel on WeatherBELL? I've looked at them before but I forgot where they are lol... I was referencing the mean panels. Individual member output won't be available for an hour or so: http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/ecmwf_city.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Bob when the indies come out can you post how they look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 8:54 PM, Bob Chill said: I was referencing the mean panels. Individual member output won't be available for an hour or so: http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/ecmwf_city.php Okay, thanks. The WeatherBELL layout confuses me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 8:58 PM, Warrior Bigfoot said: Okay, thanks. The WeatherBELL layout confuses me. Yea, for as pretty as the maps are the nav part of the site kinda sucks. Important things aren't grouped together well at all. Once I found all the panels I liked I created a bookmark library. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 9:00 PM, Bob Chill said: Yea, for as pretty as the maps are the nav part of the site kinda sucks. Important things aren't grouped together well at all. Once I found all the panels I liked I created a bookmark library. Now that I know when they come out, where would I find the page with all 50 (51?) EURO members? I remember seeing that a few days ago... Nice idea with the bookmarks! I'm gonna do that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 9:03 PM, Warrior Bigfoot said: Now that I know when they come out, where would I find the page with all 50 (51?) EURO members? I remember seeing that a few days ago... Nice idea with the bookmarks! I'm gonna do that lol. Here's the link to the stamps of all members. Kinda makes my head hurt so I tend to not look at them very oftem. I don't know if they are always available. None are showing right now but here's the link http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/yeps_members.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Member output came out. Improvement over last night but not all that impressive. About half show some snow and big hits are few and far between. 2.5" on the means in my neck. DC hasn't posted yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 9:05 PM, Bob Chill said: Here's the link to the stamps of all members. Kinda makes my head hurt so I tend to not look at them very oftem. I don't know if they are always available. None are showing right now but here's the link http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/yeps_members.php Thanks a lot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Hoping this storm morphs into sunny and 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Euro looks nice. Since the last few euro prospects didn't work out so well I'm not touching this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 9:53 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Hoping this storm morphs into sunny and 60. Then you might want to avoid this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 GFS looks much better than 12z, it has more separation from the PV, idk if itll spin something up, but a nice step towards the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 GFS so very close, if the PV was a tad farther East and the wave that dove down from Canada was a bit stronger it would of been a doozy...Good to see it on the radar though. VA might get some light snow out of this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 If you blend all guidance it sure looks like snow is going to fall from the sky next week. I'm starting to expect it now. Hopefully the heaviest of whatever qpf falls comes at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 GFS is always the only model that dosent show a storm. JMA,GGEM,Euro has it.Its been that way all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 10:54 PM, Ji said: GFS is always the only model that dosent show a storm. JMA,GGEM,Euro has it.Its been that way all winter GFS this time around isn't too far off though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 10:54 PM, Ji said: GFS is always the only model that dosent show a storm. JMA,GGEM,Euro has it.Its been that way all winter GFS is right where you want it a week out. Suppressed, weak, strung out mess with low pressure development hundreds of miles out to sea. You know the deal. Book it. Hell I am in even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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