weatherwiz Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 So many times we often hear about the NAO and so many worry about the NAO and predominately the NAO and obviously for good measures. The NAO is known to have major control over the pattern here across the United States, especially here in the Northeast. Everyone always hopes and wants that -NAO in place to keep colder air in place and everyone wants that -NAO as a system is coming up the coast. Well this winter if you were to just look at the NAO and only the NAO you would probably end up grabbing the noose. Not only was the NAO positive for the winter as a whole but it was pretty darn positive and the placement of the strongest anomalies would have favored ridging across the eastern US...all in all...you'd probably expect a horrid winter here. Well then the EPO came along and had something to say about this idea. Not only did we see a -EPO in place this winter, but a fairly decent -EPO and the placement of the strongest anomalies centered over the Alaska and Bering Strait was perfect as this allowed for ridging to occur across the western-tier of the United States and into western Canada up into Alaska...this lead to a trough across the central/eastern United States, allowing cold Arctic air to funnel into these areas. The combination of the pretty -EPO and quite positive NAO also allowed for a very active STJ and very active storm track at times. For this winter at lest, all hail the EPO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 8, 2014 Author Share Posted March 8, 2014 I wonder what the differences would be had we had a -NAO in place as opposed to a +NAO. I wonder if we would have been looking at a much drier and less active winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I wonder what the differences would be had we had a -NAO in place as opposed to a +NAO. I wonder if we would have been looking at a much drier and less active winter?70,71? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 8, 2014 Author Share Posted March 8, 2014 70,71? Wasn't that a good PNA/NAO combo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Wiz, that EPO 300 miles further east would have bought us 40% more snow and muted some of the cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 8, 2014 Author Share Posted March 8, 2014 Wiz, that EPO 300 miles further east would have bought us 40% more snow and muted some of the cutters. You think so? I agree it would certainly mute some of the cutters, however, further east and you'd be looking at a storm track that was also further east...perhaps too far east? I think if we saw the +NAO set up further north that would have lead to stronger ridging there in the Atlantic meaning a deeper trough to our west which could have really been of benefit to us...that would work to mute cutters but at the same time keeping the storm track very active and very favorable for us...may have also lead to some highly intense systems with potential for even stronger cyclogenesis than we saw with some of the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 You think so? I agree it would certainly mute some of the cutters, however, further east and you'd be looking at a storm track that was also further east...perhaps too far east? That would have mimicked 1993-94 better. The folks in the Midwest had a banner snow year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 8, 2014 Author Share Posted March 8, 2014 That would have mimicked 1993-94 better. The folks in the Midwest had a banner snow year. How was that winter here? I know one of those years was pretty epic across New England but that was maybe 1992-1993? One of those years was 2nd ranked for BDL in terms of seasonal snow...over 90''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 How was that winter here? I know one of those years was pretty epic across New England but that was maybe 1992-1993? One of those years was 2nd ranked for BDL in terms of seasonal snow...over 90''. Lol...96.4 at BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Esrl tanks EPO 18th on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 8, 2014 Author Share Posted March 8, 2014 Lol...96.4 at BOS. Epic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 8, 2014 Author Share Posted March 8, 2014 Esrl tanks EPO 18th on I wonder if the EPO is going to dominate through Spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I see no reason why it wont last until the start of spring at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 The EPO is nice and it certainly helps cold...but it doesn't always guarantee great snows. The 1980s had the most negative/strongest EPO winters of any decade...and look how that worked out for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 idk...with a -NAO it could have looked more like 76-77. The -NAO is a better predictor for big snowstorms, but the EPO is a better predictor for cold, at least as far as I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Every "major" snowstorm this year has been limited to a foot or less widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 The EPO is nice and it certainly helps cold...but it doesn't always guarantee great snows. The 1980s had the most negative/strongest EPO winters of any decade...and look how that worked out for snow. Yeah true! Just to clarify though I wasn't saying that -EPO correlated to more snows...was stating that given the state of the NAO the EPO really helped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 idk...with a -NAO it could have looked more like 76-77. The -NAO is a better predictor for big snowstorms, but the EPO is a better predictor for cold, at least as far as I know. I understand it as you don't want to have a long lasting or persistent -NAO? It's much more preferred to have the NAO transition to negative just prior to a storm? I'm sure strength of the phase along with orientation also plays a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I understand it as you don't want to have a long lasting or persistent -NAO? It's much more preferred to have the NAO transition to negative just prior to a storm? I'm sure strength of the phase along with orientation also plays a factor. It does. Although generally speaking, a -NAO winter is better than a +NAO winter. I believe it's difficult to have as strong as a -EPO as we've had and have a strong -NAO at the same time. The regions are too close to have a strong ridge in both spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Yeah true! Just to clarify though I wasn't saying that -EPO correlated to more snows...was stating that given the state of the NAO the EPO really helped EPO is def a better predictor of cold than the NAO...esp for our region. EPO is big for temps...for snow, the NAO is bigger, but as we've seen this year, we can still do just fine without a -NAO...even in more neutral EPO years with a +NAO we've done fine, like '07-'08. But most of the time, we certainly prefer a -NAO for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 What years have had a -EPO like we have had this year with a strong -NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.