Ian Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 For me, I like the 14-15 analog. That year sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 That year sucked. Third most April snow on record at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Third most April snow on record at DCA. Ah yes, that storm was Opening Day for the Nats after their first WS championship from the year before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Third most April snow on record at DCA. I meant 2014-15 as I'm guessing pazzo did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I loved that winter because of the end of January stretch, but as a word of caution if that type winter occurred next year there would be a lot of panicking. Most of us would be flipping out in angst as there was virtually no winter to speak of until the first Jan. storm. Other than the wet snow bomb Feb. was pretty weak as well and I don't remember much happening in March either. With that being said I still would sign up for that winter right now. I wasn't alive back then, but from all that I know about 86-87, it sounds like a much more toned down version of 09-10, meaning a few big ones (including back to back storms), but not much of a wall to wall winter. There would be a lot of disappointed people in DC metro if we got 86-87....for the coastal plain the entire winter was 3 storms...DCA got 4 snow events the entire winter....there was a ton of down time... 4 weeks of nothing 3-5" warm mix/slop event for far western burbs, nothing in town 3 weeks of nothing 10-15" KU 8-12" KU 1-3" event 3 weeks of nothing 8-12" KU that melted in 10 minutes 3 weeks of nothing 1-2" rain to snow event for western burbs that melted in 3 seconds 3 weeks of nothing 1" early morning April rain to snow event for western burbs that melted in 5 seconds I don't think it is a good analog anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I think I'll hug a blend of 63/64 and 02/03 but colder and snowier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I would take a redo of this winter in a heartbeat. But I dont think we have a chance of keeping the PNA through the entire winter again next year. Pretty amazing pattern this winter as far as the west coast ridge was concerned. Other than the second half of January, the PNA was not very robust this winter. It was the positive TNH and negative WPO that ruled the roost. We could definitely do better in the PNA department next winter. MDstorm MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 We actually got a ton of snow that winter (given how everyone else did) out in the Shen Valley. At least two or three storms started as HEAVY snow dropping a good foot each time. Each one changed to heavy rain before ending as snow. Chris, when I first started coming to American and heard all the pissing and moaning about how horrible 97-98 was, I couldn't understand what they were talking about because I didn't remember it that way AT ALL. Glad to know I am not the only one who doesn't remember it as a terrible winter, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Other than the second half of January, the PNA was not very robust this winter. It was the positive TNH and negative WPO that ruled the roost. We could definitely do better in the PNA department next winter. MDstorm MDstorm If we have a nino, +PNA all 3 months is basically a lock......going back to 76-77, in Ninos, 34 out of 36 months had +PNA's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 If we have a nino, +PNA all 3 months is basically a lock......going back to 76-77, in Ninos, 34 out of 36 months had +PNA's[/quote Yep, pretty standard Pac setup with the stj undercutting. We live and die with hl blocking during nino's. The upper Midwest central canada is usually warm during nino's right? Our cold source is driven by blocking and cold hp is se Canada IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Chris, when I first started coming to American and heard all the pissing and moaning about how horrible 97-98 was, I couldn't understand what they were talking about because I didn't remember it that way AT ALL. Glad to know I am not the only one who doesn't remember it as a terrible winter, LOL. I don't remember a single snowflake in Richmond 97-98. I do however remember vividly the soaking rainstorms every 48-72 hours seemingly all winter long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 If we have a nino, +PNA all 3 months is basically a lock......going back to 76-77, in Ninos, 34 out of 36 months had +PNA's[/quote Yep, pretty standard Pac setup with the stj undercutting. We live and die with hl blocking during nino's. The upper Midwest central canada is usually warm during nino's right? Our cold source is driven by blocking and cold hp is se Canada IIRC climo in a moderate nino has it warm from MN to the PAC NW and Northern NE with the lakes in the transition zone and the core cold anomalies in dixie...in weaker ninos shift everything north and west a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 There would be a lot of disappointed people in DC metro if we got 86-87....for the coastal plain the entire winter was 3 storms...DCA got 4 snow events the entire winter....there was a ton of down time... 4 weeks of nothing 3-5" warm mix/slop event for far western burbs, nothing in town 3 weeks of nothing 10-15" KU 8-12" KU 1-3" event 3 weeks of nothing 8-12" KU that melted in 10 minutes 3 weeks of nothing 1-2" rain to snow event for western burbs that melted in 3 seconds 3 weeks of nothing 1" early morning April rain to snow event for western burbs that melted in 5 seconds I don't think it is a good analog anyway It's all about perception anyway. Some northern sub-forum folk have ranked this season above 02/03, while others closer in to DC love the wall-to-wall tracking that's still going on. For me, it's always been about "impact" to rate a winter; I recognize that's kind of a subjective/squishy scale. In terms of impact, though, I would bet this winter for the DC area in 10 years doesn't really hold up as well as it does while we're living it right now, coming right after the least-snowy 2 consecutive winters ever. In the end, none of us in the DC area were stuck at home for more than a day or lost power for a day or two after any of the storms. 86/87 clearly wasn't a wall-to-wall winter, but for whatever reason (blown forecasts, lesser plowing coordination before the 2000's, worse technology, etc), it resulted in lots of people being stuck at home for days in the suburbs and DC being laughed at by the rest of country for shuddering to a halt, followed a month later by a multiple-day power outage even while the snow on the roads all melted away. That's an epic DC winter judged on impact..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Other than the second half of January, the PNA was not very robust this winter. It was the positive TNH and negative WPO that ruled the roost. We could definitely do better in the PNA department next winter. MDstorm MDstorm If we have a nino, +PNA all 3 months is basically a lock......going back to 76-77, in Ninos, 34 out of 36 months had +PNA's Thanks guys. Just had to do some research on the THN. I still have so much to learn. I guess from what I am reading the main difference between THN and PNA is the position of the trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I agree gym. 86-87 was high impact in its era. I remember bumper skiing in the neighborhood for days. Plows decided to let us figure it out and it was a fun winter for my teenage years. Matt's tight recap doesn't jive with my memory. But I'm sure it's spot accurate. I remember playing a lot of illegal construction pond hockey that year as well. Fun year even to think back upon. This year has definitely been the most interesting over all since 02-03. We never went out of reach for tracking stuff. That's pretty unusual. We saw the cold coming after the warm everytime. Even now when most folks have raised a white flag it still keeps coming. This is definitely the best tracking year since 02-03. Hard to argue against that. And fruitful door to door. I would redux this year forever and be satisfied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 the thought of a NINO and this fall map gets me excited....I hope the CFS2 does as well next winter as it did this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 It's all about perception anyway. Some northern sub-forum folk have ranked this season above 02/03, while others closer in to DC love the wall-to-wall tracking that's still going on. For me, it's always been about "impact" to rate a winter; I recognize that's kind of a subjective/squishy scale. In terms of impact, though, I would bet this winter for the DC area in 10 years doesn't really hold up as well as it does while we're living it right now, coming right after the least-snowy 2 consecutive winters ever. In the end, none of us in the DC area were stuck at home for more than a day or lost power for a day or two after any of the storms. 86/87 clearly wasn't a wall-to-wall winter, but for whatever reason (blown forecasts, lesser plowing coordination before the 2000's, worse technology, etc), it resulted in lots of people being stuck at home for days in the suburbs and DC being laughed at by the rest of country for shuddering to a halt, followed a month later by a multiple-day power outage even while the snow on the roads all melted away. That's an epic DC winter judged on impact..... I agree gym. 86-87 was high impact in its era. I remember bumper skiing in the neighborhood for days. Plows decided to let us figure it out and it was a fun winter for my teenage years. Matt's tight recap doesn't jive with my memory. But I'm sure it's spot accurate. I remember playing a lot of illegal construction pond hockey that year as well. Fun year even to think back upon. This year has definitely been the most interesting over all since 02-03. We never went out of reach for tracking stuff. That's pretty unusual. We saw the cold coming after the warm everytime. Even now when most folks have raised a white flag it still keeps coming. This is definitely the best tracking year since 02-03. Hard to argue against that. And fruitful door to door. I would redux this year forever and be satisfied The back to back storm period and the cold that followed was epic...probably not dissimilar to end of January 1966 which is legendary....I couldn't even get into my neighborhood....I actually was referring to some people and not necessarily myself....I'd lean toward an 86-87 winter because how often do you get 3 huge storms inside the beltway?...That in itself is special...but 4-7 events is some pretty weak sauce for a big winter....I thought the impact of 2/13 and 3/3 were very impressive in DC proper....nothing was crippling here, but this is definitely my 4th highest impact winter in the last 20.....3/3 sealed the deal for me on this winter...main arteries still had snowcover on 3/5...that's some crazy sh-it, and we didnt have a full melt until yesterday.....I've decided I am not enamored with high ratio events...I want QPF bombs every time..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The back to back storm period and the cold that followed was epic...probably not dissimilar to end of January 1966 which is legendary....I couldn't even get into my neighborhood....I actually was referring to some people and not necessarily myself....I'd lean toward an 86-87 winter because how often do you get 3 huge storms inside the beltway?...That in itself is special...but 4-7 events is some pretty weak sauce for a big winter....I thought the impact of 2/13 and 3/3 were very impressive in DC proper....nothing was crippling here, but this is definitely my 4th highest impact winter in the last 20.....3/3 sealed the deal for me on this winter...main arteries still had snowcover on 3/5...that's some crazy sh-it, and we didnt have a full melt until yesterday.....I've decided I am not enamored with high ratio events...I want QPF bombs every time..... 2/13 was a bit of a let-down for me because of the torch the next day. I would give up a third of the snow as long as temps are icy the next day so you have time to enjoy it. I also enjoy long-duration events. Some people love their SN+ but I love to watch snow fall for hours and hours and hours on end. In that way, I enjoyed 2009-2010 much more. I would rather have a few big, cold, long-duration dumps than these constant 4-8 inch events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Chris, when I first started coming to American and heard all the pissing and moaning about how horrible 97-98 was, I couldn't understand what they were talking about because I didn't remember it that way AT ALL. Glad to know I am not the only one who doesn't remember it as a terrible winter, LOL. Yep, and to our west they really got smoked. Good to see you on here btw!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Lyh and Roa had 3 12+ storms. . Missed Feb 22 but a week earlier had 8-12 event and end of Feb had another 6-10 event. Top 5 winter down here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Lyh and Roa had 3 12+ storms. . Missed Feb 22 but a week earlier had 8-12 event and end of Feb had another 6-10 event. Top 5 winter down here.... I had 7 on the 16/17th then 5 on the 22nd? Like I posted earlier, that was a great year here, first snow on 15th of Nov and last on 4-5th of April....62 inches total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Probably one of the better chances in many years IF we get a weak/mod nino . There may be a misconception about strong El Ninos, owing to the fact that two of them produced just 0.1 inch of snow each at DCA. Here are the average (median) snow totals at DCA (in inches) for the eight weak Ninos, the seven moderate Ninos, and the six strong Ninos since detailed record-keeping began starting with the 1949-50 snow season: Weak: 15.8 (13.3) Moderate: 26.0 (25.0) Strong: 17.2 (17.1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 There may be a misconception about strong El Ninos, owing to the fact that two of them produced just 0.1 inch of snow each at DCA. Here are the average (median) snow totals at DCA (in inches) for the eight weak Ninos, the seven moderate Ninos, and the six strong Ninos since detailed record-keeping began starting with the 1949-50 snow season: Weak: 15.8 (13.3) Moderate: 26.0 (25.0) Strong: 17.2 (17.1) Agree. Strong ones can be terrible. I doubt we're going strong next year. We'll be lucky to hit mod from how it looks now. Won't really know until sometime this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Agree. Strong ones can be terrible. I doubt we're going strong next year. We'll be lucky to hit mod from how it looks now. Won't really know until sometime this summer. I think what Rodney was getting at is that there's a misconception that strong Ninos are necessarily terrible. The stats he provides show that strong Ninos are generally decent, but that the 0.1" winters skew how people view them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I think what Rodney was getting at is that there's a misconception that strong Ninos are necessarily terrible. The stats he provides show that strong Ninos are generally decent, but that the 0.1" winters skew how people view them. Good point. Missed it. I should have phrased that they carry more risk for a notsogood result. It's pretty safe to say that we'll take our chances with any nino over other enso states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I think what Rodney was getting at is that there's a misconception that strong Ninos are necessarily terrible. The stats he provides show that strong Ninos are generally decent, but that the 0.1" winters skew how people view them. Correct. In the Mid-Atlantic, strong El Ninos are warm, but also wet, so that in some years we get blockbuster snowstorms, while in other years we get blockbuster rainstorms. Weak El Ninos, on the other hand, are cold, but also dry. So, you don't tend to get blockbuster rain or snow events in weak Nino years. The sweet spot is moderate El Ninos, which are both cold and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I had 7 on the 16/17th then 5 on the 22nd? Like I posted earlier, that was a great year here, first snow on 15th of Nov and last on 4-5th of April....62 inches total. The 16-17th was a foot here. I didn't live here, but going by obs- cool storm. Light zt all day then the bottom falls out with 1-2 inches an hour from 6pm till Midnight. Feb 22 was .5 here-- mainly rain. There was a cutter on Feb 27-28th. I've only seen 24 hour maps but looks like some WAA or front running vort dumped snow the day before 3-5 in LYH, but 6-10 in ROA and a ton more in NC. Here is the NC snow map.. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.19870227.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 ENSO update from earlier today http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowfan Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The 16-17th was a foot here. I didn't live here, but going by obs- cool storm. Light zt all day then the bottom falls out with 1-2 inches an hour from 6pm till Midnight. Feb 22 was .5 here-- mainly rain. There was a cutter on Feb 27-28th. I've only seen 24 hour maps but looks like some WAA or front running vort dumped snow the day before 3-5 in LYH, but 6-10 in ROA and a ton more in NC. Here is the NC snow map.. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.19870227.gif For the February 16-17th storm the forecast was for 5 to 10 inches of snow and after getting hours of mix I was about ready to give up on a big storm. Then it changed over and we had heavy snow with some thunder during the night. We had 12.5" from that storm here about 20 miles west of LYH and like you said most of that fell in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 For the February 16-17th storm the forecast was for 5 to 10 inches of snow and after getting hours of mix I was about ready to give up on a big storm. Then it changed over and we had heavy snow with some thunder during the night. We had 12.5" from that storm here about 20 miles west of LYH and like you said most of that fell in 6 hours. Impressive memory. I think that was a huge sleet storm in parts of NC. What do you remember of the Feb 27th event? was that forecasted or what? I think LYH was fringed, but big event in DAN & ROA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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