Jb analogs for next winter

[Ji]

57/58

02/03

09-10

[AlaskaETC]

80 inches or bust.

[mitchnick]

if the CFS2 and Euro SST predictions at this point are close, we'll do well

not only is the NINO going, but we have the cold pool off Nova Scotia and the warm/cold/warm signature in the Atlantic

[mattie g]

More hits and subscriptions for him then.

[das]

CPC estimate of 50% or greater chance of a Nino is pretty strong this far out.

[mattie g]

CPC estimate of 50% or greater chance of a Nino is pretty strong this far out.

It's looking more and more likely, but we all know it may not make that much difference if we don't get blocking at the right times. Either way, it should make early winter forecasts pretty interesting.

[WxUSAF]

I'm going with 97-98

[Bob Chill]

I'm going with 97-98

You're an evil man

[stormtracker]

I'm going with 97-98

Seriously thinking about firing you after that one.

 

That is literally the most painful winter of my life. 

[Bob Chill]

I know nino's aren't a lock but I'll take my chances 10/10 times with a weak/mod nino over any other enso state.

I have nothing to back this up but the pv spent a ton of time on the other side of the globe in recent years. This year could indicate a flip towards evening that out. I would say the odds overall favor either blocking returning or another winter with plenty of available cold. Maybe the AMO cooperates again. Hard to even speculate.

The 60's were had a pronounced streak of chilly snowy winters. I'm in the same camp as matt. We may entering a favorable period overall for real east coast winters.

[hosj III]

57/58

02/03

09-10

The streak may be a thing of the past.

[Huffwx]

Why not 86-87??

[Bob Chill]

63-64 looks like an ok match. Was that any good around here?

ETA:

68-69 not a bad match either

[Fozz]

63-64 looks like an ok match. Was that any good around here?

ETA:

68-69 not a bad match either

 

63-64 was a fantastic winter in the area from what I've seen, like almost 02-03 good.

[WinterWxLuvr]

If no niño, I'll just take a 13-14 rerun

[Fozz]

If no niño, I'll just take a 13-14 rerun

 

+1

[VAsnowfan]

Why not 86-87??

Great winter, 51 inches of snow here between Roanoke and Lynchburg with 3 12+ snowstorms. Yeah why not?

[Bob Chill]

86-87 is a pretty good match too. Seems like weak/mod nino's on the heels of neg neutral can be pretty kind to these parts. I'm in

[HighStakes]

86-87 is a pretty good match too. Seems like weak/mod nino's on the heels of neg neutral can be pretty kind to these parts. I'm in

I loved that winter because of the end of January stretch, but as a word of caution if that type winter occurred next year there would be a lot of panicking. Most of us would be flipping out in angst as there was virtually no winter to speak of until the first Jan. storm. Other than the wet snow bomb Feb. was pretty weak as well and I don't remember much happening in March either. With that being said I still would sign up for that winter right now.

[wxdude64]

86-87 is a pretty good match too. Seems like weak/mod nino's on the heels of neg neutral can be pretty kind to these parts. I'm in

I'd take that too. Had like 62 inches that winter snowed on 11-15-86 with 1.3 inches for a first and ended on 4-4-87 with 4.8 inches.

[Fozz]

I loved that winter because of the end of January stretch, but as a word of caution if that type winter occurred next year there would be a lot of panicking. Most of us would be flipping out in angst as there was virtually no winter to speak of until the first Jan. storm. Other than the wet snow bomb Feb. was pretty weak as well and I don't remember much happening in March either. With that being said I still would sign up for that winter right now.

 

I wasn't alive back then, but from all that I know about 86-87, it sounds like a much more toned down version of 09-10, meaning a few big ones (including back to back storms), but not much of a wall to wall winter.

[Bob Chill]

I loved that winter because of the end of January stretch, but as a word of caution if that type winter occurred next year there would be a lot of panicking. Most of us would be flipping out in angst as there was virtually no winter to speak of until the first Jan. storm. Other than the wet snow bomb Feb. was pretty weak as well and I don't remember much happening in March either. With that being said I still would sign up for that winter right now.

It's kind of ironic that going into this winter we all had low expectations and it ended up being a top 5 of the last couple decades. It's going to be awfully hard to top this year's snowfalls totals next year. We'll all be calling a 15-25" winter lame if that's how it goes down. Maybe we put together back to back boom years. Probably one of the better chances in many years IF we get a weak/mod nino .

[wxdude64]

It's kind of ironic that going into this winter we all had low expectations and it ended up being a top 5 of the last couple decades. It's going to be awfully hard to top this year's snowfalls totals next year. We'll all be calling a 15-25" winter lame if that's how it goes down. Maybe we put together back to back boom years. Probably one of the better chances in many years IF we get a weak/mod nino .

This is very true Bob. We can always hope! 

[hosj III]

It's kind of ironic that going into this winter we all had low expectations and it ended up being a top 5 of the last couple decades. It's going to be awfully hard to top this year's snowfalls totals next year. We'll all be calling a 15-25" winter lame if that's how it goes down. Maybe we put together back to back boom years. Probably one of the better chances in many years IF we get a weak/mod nino .

Obviously something will go wrong. My money is on a record break El Niño and flooding rain.

With this winter it just seemed like we were lucky at all the right times. We have had patterns much better than this produce nothing.

[evaporativecooler]

If we get the Patty's day storm then we'll have two epic March's in a row. I just want to see some great early season cold/snow for next year. Its been a loooong time since we've seen a good November HECS. Just imagine Sandy with it's 30-40" bullseye moved about a hundred miles east.

[Bob Chill]

Obviously something will go wrong. My money is on a record break El Niño and flooding rain.

With this winter it just seemed like we were lucky at all the right times. We have had patterns much better than this produce nothing.

What is so obvious at a 9 month lead?

We weren't lucky this year. We had abundant cold with an active southern stream. That's not luck, it's logic.

[WinterWxLuvr]

86-87 is a pretty good match too. Seems like weak/mod nino's on the heels of neg neutral can be pretty kind to these parts. I'm in

I mentioned way back that I thought this year and the past three made some of the 50's and early 60's winters look at least reasonable for this year wrt to snowfall. Seems like that worked reasonably well this year. I think your idea of finding an enso match for next year and trying to incorporate the two or three prior years would at least give us a hint at what might happen.

[clskinsfan]

If no niño, I'll just take a 13-14 rerun

 

I would take a redo of this winter in a heartbeat. But I dont think we have a chance of keeping the PNA through the entire winter again next year. Pretty amazing pattern this winter as far as the west coast ridge was concerned.

[pazzo83]

I'm going with 97-98

We actually got a ton of snow that winter (given how everyone else did) out in the Shen Valley. At least two or three storms started as HEAVY snow dropping a good foot each time. Each one changed to heavy rain before ending as snow.

[pazzo83]

For me, I like the 14-15 analog.