2014 Severe Storm season

[Hvward]

We've got a problem moving up towards Eufaula, AL.

 

Yeah I am afraid that cell is about to explode as it ingests that NW moving bit of energy.

[SouthernNJ]

Birmingham downgrade to SVR, but the storm

still has a warnable signature over Eufaula.

[downeastnc]

From SPC for tomorrow......going to be one of those nowcast type things

 

RELATIVELY RICHER TROPICAL MOISTURE -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
   UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S -- WILL EXTEND INTO THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL
   PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY COULD BE RELATIVELY
   ENHANCED. SOME NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE -- E.G. NAM/CMC MODELS --
   CONTINUES TO INDICATE RELATIVELY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS
   ALONG THE FRONT INVOF THIS REGION. ATTENDANT ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR MAY BOLSTER THE RISK FOR TORNADOES. THIS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
   DEPICT SOME LINKAGE BETWEEN THE CYCLOGENESIS PROCESS AND /1/ THE
   APPROACH OF AN H85 PERTURBATION EMANATING FROM A LOWER-LATITUDE ELY
   WAVE INVOF THE BAHAMAS...AND/OR /2/ CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
   PERTURBATIONS DEVELOPING NNEWD FROM THE MIDDLE/ERN GULF.
   HOWEVER...OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST LIMITED EVIDENCE OF A COHERENT
   ELY WAVE...AND THE EVOLUTION OF GULF CONVECTION IN THE D1/WED PERIOD
   IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO SUBSTANTIATE CONCLUSIONS REGARDING RELATED
   LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSES IN THE D2/THU PERIOD. FURTHERMORE...SEVERAL
   OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A NOTABLY WEAKER LLJ JUXTAPOSED WITH
   THE HIGHER BOUNDARY-LAYER THETA-E OVER THE CAROLINAS. ALSO...THE
   POTENTIAL FOR DEPLETION OF PRE-FRONTAL BUOYANCY OWING TO WIDESPREAD
   CONVECTION...AND EXPECTED LAGGING DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT RELATIVE
   TO THE SFC FRONT...BREED SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY IN A GREATER SVR
   TSTM/TORNADO POTENTIAL. AS SUCH...ANY CATEGORICAL UPGRADE WILL BE
   DEFERRED TO LATER OUTLOOKS.
 

[Hvward]

Tornado warning for Mecklenberg co.

Broad couplet most likely not producing atm.

[Hvward]

Broad Rotation still approaching Huntersville. 

 

Edit: Moving into some decent low level shear as it progresses north.  Will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

 

 

[Hvward]

GFS showing severe potential for Wednesday in Eastern NC.  It also alludes to some moisture lingering from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, so that could inhibit daytime heating from getting going.  GFS does have cape values +2000 jkg with EHI values of 4 in the NC tornado alley area Wednesday afternoon.  Euro wants to slow it down and bring the threat through sometime early Thursday morning.  Euro has decent cape values for Thursday on the coast but the threat seems to be a tad bit more isolated.  Euro seems to be a bit less severe due to timing so for the population in those areas, this would be the better solution.

[downeastnc]

GFS showing severe potential for Wednesday in Eastern NC.  It also alludes to some moisture lingering from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, so that could inhibit daytime heating from getting going.  GFS does have cape values +2000 jkg with EHI values of 4 in the NC tornado alley area Wednesday afternoon.  Euro wants to slow it down and bring the threat through sometime early Thursday morning.  Euro has decent cape values for Thursday on the coast but the threat seems to be a tad bit more isolated.  Euro seems to be a bit less severe due to timing so for the population in those areas, this would be the better solution.

 

Really don't need widespread slow moving storms again the rivers are already at flood stage......with the way things have gone this year I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more days with tornado threats before the typical tornado season ends here around mid June.

[Brick Tamland]

WRAL had the storms coming Thursday and said we could see some severe ones. We seem to be stuck in a pattern now of it warming up, having storms on Thursday, cooling down for a couple of days, and then warming up again.

[Solak]

6z GFS says "What storms?"

 

[Cold Rain]

^ Yep, the GFS is unimpressed. The upper pattern and timing doesn't make the severe threat look huge, in my eyes.

[Hvward]

^ Yep, the GFS is unimpressed. The upper pattern and timing doesn't make the severe threat look huge, in my eyes.

As long as there is moisture to provide a trigger, someone will see storms in the central and eastern parts. 12z GFS shows as much if not more cape across nc on Thursday as a whole then any other run this year. I wouldn't put the threat to bed yet..

[Cold Rain]

As long as there is moisture to provide a trigger, someone will see storms in the central and eastern parts. 12z GFS shows as much if not more cape across nc on Thursday as a whole then any other run this year. I wouldn't put the threat to bed yet..

 

Moisture is my concern.  Well, that and dynamics.  I think Cape looks pretty good, but this situation doesn't scream widespread, organized severe threat...I know you're not saying that though.  QPF still looks quite minimal on the latest run.  But we've learned to take those QPF maps with a grain of salt anyway.

[mackerel_sky]

Back door cold fronts rarely produce a whole lot of moisture and I can't remember a severe weather event in my neck of the woods that was caused by a backdoor cold front. Usually just a windshift and maybe a few clouds

[Brick Tamland]

WRAL still saying a chance of severe storms Thursday. They also said we have a chance of storms every day next week.

[downeastnc]

We will soon get into our summertime pattern of high cape low/no shear which can produce pulse severe but overall it's more general afternoon type stuff. I also start looking NW more as the chances of a MCS diving in out of the OH Valley starts to creep up....many of our more organized severe days in the summer comes from a dying MCS outflow from the night before over the OH Valley running into the high cape we have during the sumer.

[Brick Tamland]

Chance of storms this evening and tomorrow evening. Might not be anything severe, but would be cool to have some boomers around at night to see the lightning.

[downeastnc]

Parameters are actually looking pretty good over central and eastern NC with the exception of PWAT which are low for our area but still good enough......cape, shear lapse rates, LI's etc all look ok, I think NE NC seems to have the best chance but SPC doesn't seem impressed so we shall see. Temp is 86 with a DP of 63, the Raleigh local vis sat loop shows what looks like it could be the beginning of the beginning so to speak of where the storms might get going over south central VA, and if they form they should drop SE and we might get something going.

[Hvward]

Parameters are actually looking pretty good over central and eastern NC with the exception of PWAT which are low for our area but still good enough......cape, shear lapse rates, LI's etc all look ok, I think NE NC seems to have the best chance but SPC doesn't seem impressed so we shall see. Temp is 86 with a DP of 63, the Raleigh local vis sat loop shows what looks like it could be the beginning of the beginning so to speak of where the storms might get going over south central VA, and if they form they should drop SE and we might get something going.

Agreed. Cape values are pushing 2500 jkg on the coast with the K index on the move. K values also building over CLT. Could be an interesting afternoon.

Check out the cape building in TN/KY that is over 4000 jkg. That should eventually move east and effect WNC later tonight.

[Hvward]

SPC also has a small area of Eastern NC and the Eastern half of SC under a slight risk tomorrow.

 

[downeastnc]

Cell near Richmond VA getting a hooky look to it and has a nice rotation developing

[Hvward]

Cell near Richmond VA getting a hooky look to it and has a nice rotation developing

 

That cell has been impressive the past hour.  Doesn't look like there is anything close to impede its progress either.  Could effect the Gatesville, NC area if it stays together.  Tough to tell if it steers towards Elizabeth City or not right now.

[AJF0602]

SPC has southeast NC in hatched area for hail... not looking forward to that.

[Hvward]

Hail chances for today per SPC:

 

 

 

 

High Winds:

 

 

 

2% Tornado Risk:

 

[downeastnc]

odd setup overall, backdoor fronts usually kill any kind of storm threat but there is a little "wave" riding the front out in western NC headed SE maybe something will happen with it......still looking like extreme SE NC and coastal SC have the best shot today....winds here been NE for awhile actually feels really nice out.

[Hvward]

Meso Discussion from SPC:

 

 

 SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED IN THE
   NEAR-TERM...STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
   WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

   DISCUSSION...JUST AHEAD OF A DECAYING MCV AND ALONG A DIFFUSE COLD
   FRONT...AN INITIAL STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORM HAS FORMED OVER
   NRN MOORE COUNTY. ADDITIONAL CU IS BEGINNING TO FORM S OF THIS CELL
   IN S-CNTRL NC...WITH CU LIKELY TO FORM ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INTO SC IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AIR MASS
   CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ALONG AND S OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...LIKELY
   YIELDING MODERATE BUOYANCY AMIDST STEEP LAPSE RATES OBSERVED IN 12Z
   RAOBS. DESPITE A PREDOMINATELY WLY COMPONENT AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   WINDS...A 50 KT SPEED MAX AT 500 MB WILL SUPPORT
   ELONGATED/STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS. ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH STORM
   SPLITS APPEAR PROBABLE WITH LARGE HAIL /A FEW SIGNIFICANT/ AND
   LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

[downeastnc]

They also increased the slight risk area to include me lol gotta say I was surprised maybe the front is going to wash out more than they thought..  the DP here is only 55

 

[downeastnc]

Well I guess we shall see what happens but I gotta say this surprised me....especially how far NE they went with it

 

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 178
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   110 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
     COASTAL WATERS

   * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 110 PM UNTIL
     900 PM EDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
       TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
     SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
     A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
   STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST
   OF ORANGEBURG SOUTH CAROLINA TO 50 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF NEW
   BERN NORTH CAROLINA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
   THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

   &&

   DISCUSSION...SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM AND INCREASE IN NUMBER
   THROUGH THIS AFTN AS SFC HEATING CONTINUES IN ZONE OF WEAK ASCENT
   DOWNSTREAM FROM UPR IMPULSE CROSSING THE SRN APPALACHIANS. RESIDUAL
   EML/STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES...AND LIKELIHOOD FOR DISCRETE
   SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS GIVEN 40+ KT WNWLY 700 MB FLOW...SUGGEST
   POTENTIAL FOR LARGE/POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT HAIL...IN ADDITION TO
   LOCALLY DMGG WIND. WEAK LOW-LVL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO
   THREAT...ALTHOUGH A SPIN-UP OR TWO COULD OCCUR INVOF
   OUTFLOW/SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS.

   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 30030.
 

[Jon]

Severe T-storm watch up until 9pm...if storms can fire, most models showing some convection getting going at the latest around 7 in SE NC, we could see that watch extended possibly to midnight or so...could be a night threat for coastal areas.

[Hvward]

Yeah I am a tad bit surprised over the coverage also.  Cape values look to be juicy over SC but not over NC.  NC has a decent amount of shear but SC has much less impressive shear in place currently.  It will be interesting to see what plays out and if this becomes a night time threat.

[downeastnc]

Yeah I am a tad bit surprised over the coverage also.  Cape values look to be juicy over SC but not over NC.  NC has a decent amount of shear but SC has much less impressive shear in place currently.  It will be interesting to see what plays out and if this becomes a night time threat.

 

It wont take particularly tall updrafts to really crank out hail over NC but its just not a setup we see a lot...usually we got tons of cape and no shear not the other way around......cape is creeping up though in this area but 500jkg isn't that impressive lol......lapse rates are getting really good though so maybe it will be enough if we can just get enough surface cape to get updrafts started. I will say this the wind shifted back NW here after being N or NE all morning and the DP is creeping back up so the front is right over my area and seems to be washing out or slowly drifting north.