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2014 Severe Storm season


downeastnc

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Going to be interesting hate to hit the road to chase only to have something hit near home.....might have to hold tight and see how this evolves....

 

pretty stout leading wind gust with this storm in Greenville.......first time I have smelled the rain on hot roadway smell this year.

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Agreed, also the cell near Rose Hill, NC just off interstate 40 looks to have signs of rotation.

 

Lol I didn't even pay attention to that one but sure is. Storms back in the piedmont getting their act together another couple of hours and it will be here.

 

 

 

I wonder if the NWS is going to issue a tornado warning for that one near Greenville? Still looks good and strenghtening. There is a bit of a couplet. Nvm its trying to get its act together.

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Lol I didn't even pay attention to that one but sure is. Storms back in the piedmont getting their act together another couple of hours and it will be here.

 

 

 

I wonder if the NWS is going to issue a tornado warning for that one near Greenville? Still looks good and strenghtening. There is a bit of a couplet.

 

I don't see that much rotation in the Greenville cell and there is no hail or even strong wind with it so I am pretty sure they are not going to warn it unless it improves a lot.

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Yeah gfs showing a large swath of 2000+ cape across SE GA, EC SC, & EC NC.  Euro was hinting at this a few days ago and it now looks like it will come to fruition.  Cape looks to build late in morning with the gfs already showing +1000 values at 11:00am across most of that area and 2000+ at 2pm.  Cities venerable to super cells the most include Columbia, Sc. Florence, Sc. Raleigh-Durham area, Greenville, Nc. Fayetteville, Nc. Rockingham, Nc. Augusta, Ga. Macon, Ga. Savannah, Ga. and maybe just maybe Waycross, Ga.  If not tornado's, these storms look to bring strong winds and damaging hail so Tuesday should be a very active day.

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This is what their wording is looking like for Tuesday and Wednesday via SPC website

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL

ACUS48 KWNS 270900

SPC AC 270900

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0400 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

VALID 301200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...

THE FULL-LATITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS WILL

CONTINUE A GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF

THE WEEK...WITH SOME PATTERN DEAMPLIFICATION EXPECTED BY THE

WEEKEND.

ON DAY 4/WEDNESDAY...STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES

/POTENTIALLY GA AND NORTH FL/ TO THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC

STATES. UNCERTAINTIES EXIST REGARDING THE EXTENSIVENESS OF EARLY DAY

CONVECTION WEDNESDAY...BUT A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS AND AT LEAST

MODEST DESTABILIZATION SHOULD COINCIDE WITH A DEEP LAYER

/SOUTHWESTERLY/ WIND FIELD ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO GA.

DAMAGING WINDS AND AT LEAST SOME TORNADO RISK APPEARS POSSIBLE

WEDNESDAY.

THEREAFTER...A MUCH MORE LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY AS

COMPARED TO THIS WEEKEND/EARLY THIS WEEK...IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE

REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE VARIABILITY EXISTS

REGARDING AN AMPLIFYING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND EVENTUAL SURFACE

FRONTAL POSITION...A FEW STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE

POSSIBLE AROUND DAY 6 AND/OR DAY 7 FRIDAY/SATURDAY ACROSS FL.

..GUYER.. 04/27/2014

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There was a nice thunderstorm that hit here earlier this afternoon with lots of heavy rain, winds, and lightning/thunder. Definitely the worst daytime thunderstorm I've seen so far this year that wasn't carrying any type of warning. I guess the lack of hail kept it from being issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning. It lasted just over half an hour.

 

It caught me by surprise until I looked at the radar and saw it was a discrete cell that developed out ahead of the swath of rain that was coming east from AL. 

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Well after what can only be described as a active week ( in the eastern half of the state) it seems there will be a needed break in the severe weather threats for the foreseeable future. By my count we had 9 tornados last Friday, and 5 or 6 on Tuesday so when added to the 8 we already had before those two days gives NC about 22 tornados on the year so far. There are 26 shown reported on the SPC page but I am not sure all have been confirmed.

 

Looking online its interesting to see that the annual # of tornados for NC from 1961-1990 was 14 tornados a year ( which honestly seems low to me )

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/cae/svrwx/tornadobystate.htm

 

The 1990-2011 average is 31, but looking at individual years its easy to see that events like the last week really change things for this state, for example last year there were only 13 tornados all year....also I am sure some of the upswing has to do with the more active tropics in the later time frame versus the 1961-1990 which had  a lot fewer landfalls in NC compared to 1990-2011 and then there was 2011.

 

Climo wise the tornado threat in NC really lowers after May outside of TC's and the short but often violent second season in Nov.

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It looks like Monday afternoon there is a chance of severe storms on the coast of NC.  GFS hinting at cape levels +1000 and abundant helicity in the area.  If the trigger is there(moisture), then I think we could see rotating supercell's with possible spin-ups on Monday.  Also the coast looks to be active Thursday afternoon, but once again moisture could become an issue.  I think we will add to our total of twisters this week in NC and possibly seeing a few in SE VA(Thursday) as well.

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That's a pretty localized slight risk area......really lots going against it but it doesnt take much when the mid level lapse rates and shear are good like they are out west. Pwats just getting to 1" and its getting late in the day but there is a line trying to fire over southern VA.

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Nice set of supercells working from central SC into NC.  Moving into some good CAPE of 2000+.  Helicity looks to be pretty low but gets more favorable the closer you get to the VA border.  Stiff upper level winds look to be blowing anvil tops ahead allowing decent hail to form thus we have 3 severe warnings near Charlotte currently.

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Model runs today look interesting for a chance at severe for Friday, if it trends a little later in the day we could get greater instability as well. Right now timing is hurting, we have plenty of shear to work with and helicty values are 500+ from what I remember looking at, but it's at early morning. We'll see what the next couple of model runs say

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