2014 Severe Storm season

[Brick Tamland]

Tornado warnings cancelled.

[WxBlue]

Good lord, that was too close to my home. I was tracking that thing on GR2Analyst from SW of Lillington all the way to Knightdale. It missed my home in Clayton by few miles to west and nearly got 40/42 communitity before going over shopping centers us locals call "White Oak". I just spent the past hour updating my friends on Twitter about this storm and I'm exhausted.

[FLweather]

Tornado threat might be over. Seems to be turning into a broad meso from here on out into va. 

Maybe not.

 

The way the bands are coming together I wonder if another tor warning.

[Hvward]

Maybe not.

 

The way the bands are coming together I wonder if another tor warning.

 

Agreed looks to be strengthening again just west of Castalia.  If it gets its act together it could potentially threaten Roanoke Rapids in the next hour.

 

Edit: Looks like its turning into a line, severe storms in RDU and heavy snow in the high mountains what a day.

[PackGrad05]

Couplet went 2 miles east of my house last night in Willow Springs.  I'm right at 42 and Kennebec.  It went over 42 and old stage, as seen in this picture.
 

[downeastnc]

Any damage in the area I assume from the lack or reports that  it was a funnel that maybe touched down a few times briefly.....

[Brick Tamland]

I was really suprised we got anything severe Saturday night. The forecast called for the storms in the afternoon, and they came later than expected, and that was with a whole day of rainy and cloudy weather. I didn't think it would be unstable enough without any sun to stir things up. I wonder if this is a sign of things to come this spring. Wake County sure seems to be having more severe weather and tornadoes than usual the past few years.

[metalicwx366]

I was really suprised we got anything severe Saturday night. The forecast called for the storms in the afternoon, and they came later than expected, and that was with a whole day of rainy and cloudy weather. I didn't think it would be unstable enough without any sun to stir things up. I wonder if this is a sign of things to come this spring. Wake County sure seems to be having more severe weather and tornadoes than usual the past few years.

Actually SPC put out a slight risk for the exact area where the storms popped up and a meso discussion that warned about the threat of severe thunderstorms before the storms starting popping up. It was there. No one paid attention to it until that tornado warning came. They actually nailed it.

SUMMARY...A BRIEF WINDOW APPEARS TO EXIST FOR A WEAK TORNADO OR TWO

MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL NC.

DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED FROM

NEAR FLORENCE SC NEWD INTO S CNTRL NC...WHERE SURFACE MAP SHOWS

PRESSURE FALLS AND LIGHT BUT SELY SURFACE WINDS. THESE STORMS ARE

FORMING AHEAD OF THE UPPER VORT MAX AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR

ABOUT 2 HOURS OR SO. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE DONE A RATHER GOOD

JOB AT FORECASTING THIS CLUSTER OF CELLS...WHICH THEY HAVE

DISSIPATING BY AROUND 02Z OVER N CNTRL NC.

GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY...COOL BOUNDARY LAYER AND GENERALLY LIGHT

SURFACE WINDS...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND OR HAIL IS LIKELY

MINIMAL. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL VORTICITY AND FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE

FORCING FOR ASCENT...AS WELL AS 0-1 SRH VALUES AROUND 100 M2/S2

SUGGEST BRIEF AND LIKELY WEAK TORNADOES COULD OCCUR IF SOME OF THE

STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAN PERSIST. RADAR HAS SHOWN LOOSE CYCLONIC

CIRCULATIONS RECENTLY.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0228.html

Edit: Dude you posted the meso discussion

[Brick Tamland]

Dude, I said the forecast called for storms earlier, and they came later, and that I was still suprised we ended up getting them because it was cloudy and rainy all day. I know what the discussion was, which came out right when the storms started, but I was still suprised because the storms popped up later in the evening and still happened when there was no sun all day to stir up the instability. You need to work on your reading comprehension skills.

[metalicwx366]

Dude, I said the forecast called for storms earlier, and they came later, and that I was still suprised we ended up getting them because it was cloudy and rainy all day. I know what the discussion was, which came out right when the storms started, but I was still suprised because the storms popped up later in the evening and still happened when there was no sun all day to stir up the instability. You need to work on your reading comprehension skills.

Dude if you would have checked the High Resolution Models you wouldn't have been surprised when they popped up or the time they pooped up. "HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE DONE A RATHER GOOD

JOB AT FORECASTING THIS CLUSTER OF CELLS.."

There is more to it than just sunshine for severe weather. A slight risk area was also put out at the time.

You need to work on your model reading and understanding skills/SPC mesoscale discussion understanding skills.

[jburns]

Dude if you would have checked the High Resolution Models you wouldn't have been surprised when they popped up or the time they pooped up. "HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE DONE A RATHER GOOD

JOB AT FORECASTING THIS CLUSTER OF CELLS.."

There is more to it than just sunshine for severe weather. A slight risk area was also put out at the time.

You need to work on your model reading and understanding skills/SPC mesoscale discussion understanding skills.

 

Both dudes, that's enough.

[Brick Tamland]

[mackerel_sky]

That doesn't look bad , unless you live in TN? It'll fall apart by the time it gets to the Carolinas.

[Hvward]

Strong storms moving out of the mountains this morning. Cell near Morganton might turn tornadic with a little flat land and some daytime heating later this afternoon.

 

Tomorrow will be the day for some real severe fun!

[nrgjeff]

12Z models have new development in North Georgia Friday afternoon. That is after the morning Tennessee Valley stuff dies out. We'll see how that goes. Right now I like the low 15% overall slight Friday. If evidence increases of new afternoon development, it could be a bit more interesting in North Georgia. That's a day of forecast, so we won't know until the morning.

[downeastnc]

 

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0222 AM CDT SAT APR 05 2014

   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN FL...GA...SC...NC...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EWD
   TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY WITH UPPER LOW DEEPENING
   ACROSS LOWER MI. STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE SERN
   STATES WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RAPIDLY ADVANCING NWD ACROSS THE
   CAROLINAS WHERE THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT
   WILL STRETCH FROM THE WRN CAROLINAS SWWD ACROSS GA AND THE FL
   PANHANDLE AT 00Z...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS THE
   CAROLINAS. LIFT ALONG BOTH FRONTS WILL SERVE AS FOCI FOR STORM
   DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

   ELSEWHERE...THE THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ALOFT WILL EXTEND SWD ACROSS THE
   PLAINS...WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -25 C HELPING TO CREATE
   SMALL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY FOR A FEW WEAK DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS
   FROM THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY SWD INTO ERN TX.

   ...SERN STATES...
   WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...BOTH LOW AND HIGH...WILL LIMIT HEATING OVER MUCH
   OF THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...A RETURN OF 60S F DEWPOINTS AND LIFT
   ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING EWD
   THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SHEAR WILL BE STRONG AND WILL FAVOR BOTH
   SUPERCELLS AND FAST MOVING BOWING STRUCTURES. WHILE DAMAGING WIND
   APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
   WELL...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT FROM NERN GA INTO THE
   CAROLINAS WHERE STORMS MAY ENCOUNTER INCREASED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

   ..JEWELL.. 04/05/2014

 

[NC_hailstorm]

Yeah I would watch around the warm front Day 3.There could be close to a 15-20 degree difference on either side with opposite wind direction.

 

South of I-85 looks to be in a better spot.

[ryan1234]

GSP put out an interesting afd for the area. Thoughts anyone?

[downeastnc]

Parts of NC in slight risk Tues

 

 SPC AC 140559

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VA...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFIED/PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE
   CONUS TUESDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TIED TO AN
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRANSITIONING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
   ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
   STEADILY AMPLIFY/SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
   THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

   ...CAROLINAS/VA...
   A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID-UPPER JET STREAK WILL
   RACE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY...WITH A
   ROBUSTLY STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD OVER THE REGION.
   EXTENSIVE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE EASTWARD ADVANCING
   COLD FRONT...WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING OTHERWISE OCCURS AHEAD OF
   THE FRONT /LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/.

   THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LAG THE COLD
   FRONT...AND IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL
   PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK LAPSE
   RATES ALOFT...PRE-FRONTAL MOISTENING/MODEST DESTABILIZATION SHOULD
   CONTRIBUTE TO SOME REINVIGORATION OF STORMS BY AFTERNOON...WITH
   MLCAPE POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 500 J/KG ACROSS PIEDMONT/COASTAL
   PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO VA. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
   FOR AT LEAST SOME RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS GIVEN A VERY STRONG DEEP
   LAYER/LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...ACCENTUATED BY 50+ KT
   SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM. THIS WILL
   SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR FAST-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS AS UPDRAFTS DEEPEN/MATURE. THIS INCLUDES AT LEAST SOME
   RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ACROSS THE
   PIEDMONT/COASTAL AREAS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO VA.

 

[Hvward]

We could see a decent severe flair up today in LA/MS.  Nam and Gfs both have cape levels pushing 3000 in that area with good lift.  It will be interesting to see if we break the EF3 streak today.  Although they haven't rated all the spin ups from yesterday yet so it could have already been broken,

[downeastnc]

RAH midday update sounds interesting especially for my neck of the woods seeign how I am roughly 45-50 miles east of I95......to bad I work all day.

 

...TO THE MID/UPPER 70S POTENTIALLY IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE FROPA WILL BE LATER. STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING...AND MARGINAL TO MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION (500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE) CERTAINLY INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THE PRECISE NATURE OF
THE THREAT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN GIVEN A POTENTIAL FOR
UPSTREAM CONVECTION /MCS ACTIVITY/ LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING.
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT(S)...
THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY BACKED SFC WINDS
/LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED HODOGRAPHS/ POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF ANY SFC WAVES WHICH COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN
CENTRAL/EASTERN NC...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 WHERE
DIURNAL TIMING AND DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE.

[Hvward]

SPC Day 2 Outlook puts RDU in the slight risk area.

 

[tornadotony]

Would not be shocked to see a few tornadoes in central MS with that intensifying line given this VWP...

 

[Jon]

Not surprised new SPC 1 day outlook has 2% tornado probability in Central NC...could increase with newer updates, I'm guessing.

 

4km NAM valid 5am RDU

 

RAP similar.

[downeastnc]

Tomorrow afternoon could be interesting if a few cells can get discrete in the right areas and avoid getting caught up in a lot of trash...

[andyhb]

Looking at RadioReference it appears a damaging tornado touched down in Jackson County, MS near Gautier, reports of entrapment.

 

http://www.broadcastify.com/listen/ctid/1426

 

[Cold Rain]

Well, it looks like the latest SPC outlook has trimmed the slight risk area substantially.  Typical.

[Hvward]

Yeah CR they take it away for RDU.

 

 

but increase it for Waycross!!

[Solak]

Latest HWO... East of 95 for any action, it appears. I'm 7 miles West. Looks like downeast and friends over that way might get into the action later.

AS OF 1010 AM TUESDAY...

HAVE JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTIVE LINE 
NOW EXITING THE ERN CWA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT NOW 
ALONG THE NC MOUNTAINS AND EXPECT A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS 
AFTERNOON... PROPELLED BY THE DENSITY OF THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD 
INCOMING AIR MASS AS WELL AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE 
MS RIVER VALLEY. A FEW ROTATING ELEMENTS AND SHORT SEGMENTS WITH 
ENHANCED WIND GUSTS WERE OBSERVED WITH THIS PRIMARY LINE OF 
CONVECTION... AND AS THIS DEPARTS ALONG WITH THE BETTER 
INSTABILITY... WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF LULL WITHIN THE REARWARD 
SUBSIDENCE ZONE. BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOW OVER S/E GA AND SC 
SHOULD SPREAD UP INTO THE S/E CWA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... AND 
THIS EXTRAPOLATION IS SUPPORTED BY RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE. INSTABILITY IS 
NOT PROJECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH THIS (AROUND 250 J/KG 
POTENTIALL APPROACHING 500 J/KG) BUT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY 
AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR/EAST OF WHAT THE SHORT RANGE 
MODELS INDICATE WILL BE A PREFRONTAL WEAK SURFACE LOW... AND IN FACT 
THE RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD OF CURVED HODOGRAPHS EARLY 
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY POSE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR AN ADDITIONAL 
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT... IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN BOWING 
SEGMENTS AND AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO... LARGELY EAST OF I-95 AS 
THIS IS WHERE THE SREF SHOWS THE BEST COMBINATION OF (MODEST) 
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE THREAT OF 
ANY STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE OVER (TO OUR EAST) BY 00Z. IN ANY 
CASE... MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF SHOWERS (IF 
NOT STORMS) FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON EITHER WITH 
THE ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH OR ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. 
PW VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL... WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE 
WITH DEW POINTS HOLD IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LIFT WILL BE AUGMENTED 
BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE SRLY JET STREAK TO 
OUR NNW. SO... AFTER A SHORT LULL WILL TREND POPS BACK UP FOR THIS 
AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TOWARD THE GLAMP AND HRRR RAPID-
UPDATE GUIDANCE... TO INDICATE FALLING TEMPS IN THE WEST THIS 
AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO UPPER 70S 
EAST. -GIH
 

[Brick Tamland]