andyhb Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Dr Greg Forbes has a 4/10 on the Torcon for SGA/NFL on Sunday and also says that there is a possibility of a strong tornado. Where did he say this exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharonA Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I think we need to really pay attention to the storm on Monday. Could be fun for parts of the SE "Fun", he says . Mets! I'm paying attention. Sunday is travel, and Monday is onsite work in Jacksonville. Between the weekend-holiday traffic on I-75 plus the possible SVRs on Sunday, and then the "fun" on Monday ... yeah, I'm paying attention. Watcha got? At least there will be some warmth with it. I'm tired of this cold crap, and it's not even December yet. whiiiiiiinnnnnnne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Where did he say this exactly?On TWC. What does the threat look like to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 21, 2014 Author Share Posted November 21, 2014 I know in NC we seem to always get a round of severe weather sometime in the last two weeks of November. One of the biggest tornadoes to ever hit Raleigh was on November 28, 1988. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/19881128/ http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20081115/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Considering making my way down towards Columbus or Auburn though I am not sold yet on a particular target just yet and could end up near Tifton or heck even Waycross. Shear values look very high but cape will be the issue. High shear/low cape events can produce a decent outbreak.. Just got to decide if I want to chase storms moving 60+ mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 On TWC. What does the threat look like to you? Depends a lot on how far north the warm front makes it, but I'm leaning towards the "it's not going to do much east of Mobile" camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The nam and gfs certainly looks worse, if you want svr wx. on tonights runs.. The wedge front/warm front never really gets kicked out until its too late. I still say its possible, but might really be confined to MS, southern and mid AL and southern/Mid GA and the pandhandle maybe the coastal carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Slight risk tomorrow for the Eastern Carolinas and the deep south, may be a fairly active day if we can get some destabilization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharonA Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'm still watching it. But I suspect most of the others have gotten distracted by the hints of turkey snow in the models ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The atmosphere will be primed tomorrow. IF** there is CAPE and its realized...its off to the races for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Even though we are totally wedged right now the folks at MHX and SPC seem to think we are still primed for a possible severe event, this is from the AFD from MHX....looks like there will be a window where any good updrafts that can get going stand a good chance of rotating, so it is one of those cases where if there is a couplet on radar chances are its legit and producing. ...BY THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY INCREASES FROMTHE SOUTH AS STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH SRHHELICITY VALUES UPWARDS OF 600-700 BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS COINCIDESWITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE INSTABILITY AND MOST OF THE CWA REMAINS INA SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THIS SHEARENVIRONMENT. THE TORNADO/SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE AFTER 06Z ASTHE FLOW BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERETHREAT...QPF TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DEEPMOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. GIVEN THE WARM SW WINDS...EXPECTTEMPERATURES TO FALL VERY LITTLE TONIGHT...LIKELY REMAINING IN THELOWER 60S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'm patiently waiting the sound of thunder CAE...... TONIGHT...BY THIS EVENING...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THESE AND S AS 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHES. THE SHEARSUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THELIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LITTLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. THE NAMDISPLAYS JUST WEAK INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE BASED LI/S -1 TO -2 INTHE SOUTHEAST SECTION. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERETHUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND11 PM. SPC WRF SHOWS A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURINGTHE 6 PM TO 11 PM PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHERWOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEAR THE WARMFRONT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Anyone getting in on the severe weather in GA? TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN UPSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA... SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA... LAMAR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...* UNTIL 445 PM EST* AT 422 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO DETECT A TORNADO THAT HAS A LONG HISTORY OF SHOWING DEBRIS ON RADAR. THIS DANGEROUS STORM IS NEAR LINCOLN PARK...OR NEAR THOMASTON MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO THOMASTON...BARNESVILLE...MILNER...YATESVILLE...MEANSVILLE... ALDORA...THE ROCK...SUNSET VILLAGE...LINCOLN PARK...REDBONE... ATWATER...SUNNYSIDE...JOHNSTONVILLE...HANNAHS MILL...GOGGINS... REDBONE CROSSROADS...PIEDMONT AND LIBERTY HILL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 MHX still thinks things could get rough here especially east near the coast, if and at this point it seems a pretty big IF the storms can get going during the window below they could be really nasty and produce more than a weak spin up with these kind of shear parameters. Could be 2-3 hrs tonight where every little storm ( if they even form) wants to hook.... WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFENORTH THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NIGHT AS A WARMFRONT. GOOD SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGSWITH 60 KNOT JET EVIDENT AT 8H AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIODWITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. CAPES REMAINING LOW...MAINLY BELOW 1000J/KG...WITH LI AROUND -2. WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND SHEAR ANDFORECAST SRH WELL OVER 1000 M2/S2...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM HAVETHE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND A TORNADOPOSSIBLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Mesoscale Discussion 1944 < Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1944 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN GA AND FAR NERN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 232036Z - 232300Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...AREAS EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 558 ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A NEW TORNADO WATCH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES IS CROSSING THE AL/GA BORDER EXTENDING INTO THE FL PANHANDLE...AND WILL SPREAD E/NE OF UPSTREAM TORNADO WATCH 558 DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MARGINAL BUOYANCY...LARGELY SUPPORTED BY LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS...PRECEDES THIS CONVECTION TO THE S OF A WAVY WARM FRONT ORIENTED W/E ACROSS SRN GA. SFC PRESSURE FALLS OF 3.5-4.5 MB PER 2 HRS FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS WILL CORRESPOND TO ISALLOBARIC FLOW DRIVING THE WARM FRONT AND MARGINAL BUOYANCY NWD INTO EARLY EVENING. MODEST WARM ADVECTION WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE MAY ALSO FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER CONVECTION OVER S-CNTRL/SERN GA. STRONG SSWLY/SWLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH 50-55 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND 30-35 KT OF 0-1-KM SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS ONE OR TWO TORNADOES WITH QLCS-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES/PRECEDING TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR STRONGER DEEP ASCENT TO ONLY GLANCE THE REGION...POOR LAPSE RATES...AND EVENTUAL NOCTURNAL COOLING...CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SVR RISK IS LIMITED TO SOME EXTENT. ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 11/23/2014 ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Musella [Crawford Co, GA] 911 CALL CENTER reports TSTM WND DMG at 4:35 PM EST -- NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES REPORTED DOWN IN CRAWFORD COUNTY. ffcchat 2014/11/23 4:46 PM iembot Carsonville [Taylor Co, GA] 911 CALL CENTER reports TSTM WND DMG at 4:22 PM EST -- TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 FFC issues Tornado Warning for Jasper, Jones, Monroe, Putnam [GA] till 5:30 PM EST * AT 451 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FORSYTH...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 FFC issues Tornado Warning for Jasper, Jones, Monroe, Putnam [GA] till 5:30 PM EST * AT 451 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FORSYTH...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH. well that's pretty damn fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 FFC updates Tornado Warning (cancels Butts [GA], continues Jasper, Morgan, Newton, Walton [GA]) till 5:45 PM EST. AT 525 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO DETECT A TORNADO WITH A LONG HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DAMAGE AND LOFTING DEBRIS ON RADAR. THIS DANGEROUS STORM IS LOCATED OVER MANSFIELD...OR NEAR COVINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. IT LOOKS TO CROSS INTERSTATE 20 NEAR BRICK STORE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Huge blanket warning for that line in GA.....the storms are really helping bring down that LLJ and some places should see some 50-80 mph wind gust. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA... SOUTHEASTERN WILKES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA... WARREN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA... CENTRAL TALIAFERRO COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA... EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA... JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA... GLASCOCK COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA... NORTHERN EMANUEL COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA...* UNTIL 645 PM EST* AT 608 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR NORWOOD TO EDGEHILL TO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WRIGHTSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looks like severe cancel for the RAH area... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 810 PM SUNDAY......THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN AT OR VERY NEAR THE COAST...THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DATA INDICATED THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS TRACKING NE THROUGH CENTRAL TN INTO KY THIS EVENING. THE MID LEVEL FRONT WAS SURGING EASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION ACCOMPANIED BY A FINAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF RAINFALL (WITH ONE FINAL BAND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE) AS THE MID LEVEL FRONT PASSES. THERE WERE TWO VERY IMPORTANT LOW LEVEL FEATURES PRESENT. BOTH WILL ACT TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION. 1)... THE EXPECTED IN-SITU DAMMING EVENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH AS THE DIABATIC PROCESS TOOK OVER. NOTE THE STRONG CAD SIGNATURE EXTENDS THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE EASTERN SLOPES AND PIEDMONT FROM VIRGINIA THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA... NW SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S ALL THE WAY TO GAINESVILLE GEORGIA (JUST NE OF ATL) WITH A LOW LEVEL NE FLOW. THE CAD BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF GSP TO STATESVILLE... THROUGH THE TRIAD... AND INTO SOUTHERN VA. WINDS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY BECOME SE... AND GUSTY TO 20 MPH. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 50S FROM GSP TO CLT TO RDU AND RWI. THE SECOND... BUT EVEN MORE IMPORTANT BOUNDARY (THE MAIN WARM FRONT) WAS LOCATED FROM SE GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE CENTRAL SC COAST... THEN OFFSHORE OF SC. IT APPEARS THAT A MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED SE OF AUGUSTA AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE TOWARD OR NEAR WILMINGTON AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR SHOULD APPROACH THE FAR SE PART OF NC... BUT THE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER OUR REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVENT THE MAIN WARM FRONT FROM SURGING DEEP INTO THE MORE STABLE DOME OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. EVEN WITH THE PERIODS OF SHOWERS... ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE BANDS OF CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM THE SW LATE EVENING OVER THE SW PIEDMONT. SHOWERS AND ELEVATED STORMS WILL GRADUALLY END IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF EVEN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES WITH THIS EVENT... LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM WILMINGTON TO MOREHEAD CITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... MECKLENBURG COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA... SOUTH CENTRAL ROWAN COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA... SOUTHEASTERN GASTON COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA... NORTHWESTERN UNION COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA... WESTERN CABARRUS COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA... CENTRAL YORK COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...* UNTIL 900 PM EST Wasn't expecting that... http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=gsp&wwa=severe%20thunderstorm%20warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 A whole slew of wind damage reports are coming in from GA from earlier this evening/afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 A whole slew of wind damage reports are coming in from GA from earlier this evening/afternoon. It wa rocking in central GA today. Tornadoes and severe wind reports galore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It wa rocking in central GA today. Tornadoes and severe wind reports galore.There was a possibly long tracked tornado too, had a TDS for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 There was a possibly long tracked tornado too, had a TDS for a long time.Thomaston, GA - Upson CountyNot sure if this was the one but damage is stout here. http://www.wsbtv.com/gallery/news/local/strong-storms-leave-damage-across-middle-georgia/gCPgr/#more-galleries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It wa rocking in central GA today. Tornadoes and severe wind reports galore. ya, a TON of wind damage reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Thomaston, GA - Upson County image.jpg Not sure if this was the one but damage is stout here. http://www.wsbtv.com/gallery/news/local/strong-storms-leave-damage-across-middle-georgia/gCPgr/#more-galleries Yeah, that's from the same storm that had a TDS north of Eufaula, AL that my chief and I were tracking. It started just north of Eufaula and went for Thomaston about about 90 mins later. It wasn't producing a tornado that entire time, but that same cell probably produced 2, maybe 3, seperate tornadoes. It had nice couplets north of Eufaula, near Cusseta, GA, and again near Thomaston. Also had a number of trees down from wind in Columbus, GA from a Severe Thunderstorm Warning. Damage also happened in Marion County just north of Buena Vista, GA. However, Thomaston sustained the most damage out of all the damage pictures/video I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yeah, that's from the same storm that had a TDS north of Eufaula, AL that my chief and I were tracking. It started just north of Eufaula and went for Thomaston about about 90 mins later. It wasn't producing a tornado that entire time, but that same cell probably produced 2, maybe 3, seperate tornadoes. It had nice couplets north of Eufaula, near Cusseta, GA, and again near Thomaston. Also had a number of trees down from wind in Columbus, GA from a Severe Thunderstorm Warning. Damage also happened in Marion County just north of Buena Vista, GA. However, Thomaston sustained the most damage out of all the damage pictures/video I've seen. It hasn't been officially classified but the NWS reported EF-2 damage in this storm. That's pretty intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.