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2014 Severe Storm season


downeastnc

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TORNADO WARNING

FLC005-045-170845-

/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0028.141117T0810Z-141117T0845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL

210 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN BAY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...

NORTHWESTERN GULF COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 245 AM CST/345 AM EST/

* AT 206 AM CST...A DEVELOPING TORNADO HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEAR ALLANTON...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF

CALLAWAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

WETAPPO

$$

42-DVD


TORNADO WARNING

ALC025-170845-

/O.NEW.KMOB.TO.W.0034.141117T0808Z-141117T0845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL

208 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN CLARKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 245 AM CST

* AT 204 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF JACKSON...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST

OF LEROY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

WHATLEY... THOMASVILLE... GROVE HILL...

FULTON...


TORNADO WARNING

ALC025-129-170830-

/O.NEW.KMOB.TO.W.0033.141117T0741Z-141117T0830Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL

141 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL CLARKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 230 AM CST

* AT 137 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF CHATOM...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST

OF TIBBIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

JACKSON... WAGARVILLE... SAINT STEPHENS...

LEROY...

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
235 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL CALHOUN COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
  NORTH CENTRAL GULF COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 300 AM CST

* AT 232 AM CST...A DEVELOPING TORNADO HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE
  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHIPOLA PARK...OR 18
  MILES EAST OF CALLAWAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  SCOTTS FERRY...MARYSVILLE AND ABE SPRINGS
 

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RAH is downplaying the severe threat, it appears.

HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-WAYNE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-920 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY ASTRONG COLD FRONT SURGING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINALATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NO APPRECIABLE THREAT FOR SEVEREWEATHER IS EXPECTED...SHOWER ACTIVITY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTWILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THISAFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95.
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From what I understand, helicity and shear profiles are impressive all over ENC. However, CAPE is still limited in most areas. Thanks goodness it's November right now or things could've been bad.

12z NAM for Goldsboro, NC:

Cape has been between 500-1000 j/kg where the other warnings have been down south. Cells popping this afternoon should benefit greatly from high levels of shear and even with minimal cape, tornado's can occur. High shear/ low cape event could be on tap fo ENC this afternoon.

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Cape has been between 500-1000 j/kg where the other warnings have been down south. Cells popping this afternoon should benefit greatly from high levels of shear and even with minimal cape, tornado's can occur. High shear/ low cape event could be on tap fo ENC this afternoon.

 

After looking over few papers, I take back my "CAPE is limited" comment. Like you said, favorable shear over ENC is helpful for supercells should they form this afternoon even with CAPE in 500-1000 j/kg range.

 

A recent paper from NC State got my attention with this quote:

 

“Low-CAPE strong deep layer shear conditions are associated with 54 percent of the strong-violent tornado subset.”

 
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Couplet was nice for a few frames just SW of Jacksonville kinda messy after that but it could have put down.....biggest threat for NC right now are those cells coming in along the south beaches.

Any further development in Central Fl later with the storms coming on shore from the west or does the loss of daytime heating hurt us?

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