Cold Rain Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Looking at the sky off to my north and west, it looks like activity is beginning to take shape over central Wake. We'll see.... Winner!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Just got 'traced' by the Clayton storm. Debating on whether to fire the grill for some chicken before the Durham storm gets here. Love cloud watching when these storms pop up. Saw clouds at 3 different levels moving 3 different directions with this cell to the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Winner!! It only counts if it hits Brick. haha those look pretty wicked with lots of lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 It only counts if it hits Brick. haha those look pretty wicked with lots of lightning. Where is Brickster? Hasn't been around for two or three days now. It's been so quiet around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Where is Brickster? Hasn't been around for two or three days now. It's been so quiet around here. I know I have missed his updates on WRAL. Wonder if he hit a woman with his trident? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Just threw the chicken breasts on (in the rain from a new cell) Looks like I have about 25 minutes before the next cluster gets here. Starting to hear some thunder from several directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Just threw the chicken breasts on (in the rain from a new cell) Looks like I have about 25 minutes before the next cluster gets here. Starting to hear some thunder from several directions.I don't need a grill to cook chicken, just throw it on the cement and watch it sizzle! No rain within 100 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM ERN KY SEWD ACROSS WRN VA INTO WRN AND CNTRL NC. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT. DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F. SFC TEMPS ON THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS ARE NOW IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S F WHICH HAS ALLOWED MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST HEATING HAS OCCURRED FROM NEAR CHARLOTTE NC NEWD TO NEAR LYNCHBURG VA WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SRN NC...MESOSCALE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ABOVE 8.0 C/KM. AS THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER ERN KY AND WRN VA MOVES SEWD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 The ol 7-10 split in progress at the Cold Rain estate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 I know I have missed his updates on WRAL. Wonder if he hit a woman with his trident? Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Lots of lightening and thunder with the Fuquay cell. Finally raining moderately here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Next cluster went S and W. Got traced again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 I got 2500 over me, where's my storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 I got 2500 over me, where's my storms? Where's my concrete chicken?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Where's my concrete chicken?!It's done, with a side of fried street okra! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Storms that missed us by >< just went warned.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 It's done, with a side of fried street okra! Throw in some upside down gnat cake and we're there! Solak's near miss storms are rockin and rollin still. It was about the same here. Strengthened right after passing to my SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 No storms for me yesterday. Looks like another 50/50 chance today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 No storms for me yesterday. Looks like another 50/50 chance today. There he is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 It is rally humid out there today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Looks like all the storms are going to the south of me again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 There he is!I only thought I missed him , till he came back with his A game, lol! Had a severe tstorm warning , but weakened as it got here, but lots of heavy rain! Apparently , he's been busy at the humidity rally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 I only thought I missed him , till he came back with his A game, lol! Had a severe tstorm warning , but weakened as it got here, but lots of heavy rain! Apparently , he's been busy at the humidity rally! Hahaha! The good stuff has missed me just to the west 2 days in a row. Getting a little light rain now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 16, 2014 Author Share Posted November 16, 2014 One last bump before the end of the 2014 severe season.... from MHXfor Monday afternoon THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY.SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OFTHE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOMESTRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH THETHUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... From SPC and the new levels ...ERN CAROLINAS... RICHER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STREAM /LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS/ WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ALONG A STRONG 60+ KT LLJ RESULTING IN WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CAPE MAGNITUDE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND CONTINUE EAST DURING THE DAY. SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO STRENGTHEN AS IT INTERCEPTS GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES WITH LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. A CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. WILL INTRODUCE A MARGINAL RISK FOR NOW...BUT THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER UPDATES.November has seen some pretty nasty tornados in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Mesoscale models tonight are hinting that storm activity could fire up around Charlotte lunch time and beyond tomorrow...I'm betting the "marginal" outlook may get shifted west a little and slight chance could run up the Coastal Plain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Not a surprise if we have severe weather in NC tomorrow. Seems we always get a round this time of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 One last bump before the end of the 2014 severe season.... from MHXfor Monday afternoon THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... From SPC and the new levels day2otlk_0700.gif ...ERN CAROLINAS... RICHER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STREAM /LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS/ WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ALONG A STRONG 60+ KT LLJ RESULTING IN WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CAPE MAGNITUDE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND CONTINUE EAST DURING THE DAY. SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO STRENGTHEN AS IT INTERCEPTS GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES WITH LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. A CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. WILL INTRODUCE A MARGINAL RISK FOR NOW...BUT THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER UPDATES. November has seen some pretty nasty tornados in NC Do you anticipate the possibility of nasty tornadoes tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Do you anticipate the possibility of nasty tornadoes tomorrow? Wind profiles look pretty decent to good in Eastern Carolinas, as noted by SPC, but we will have to see if these storms can get severe first due to little instability (thanks to the recent cold). If we can get enough CAPE to go with this wind profile, it wouldn't surprise me if we get one or couple of tornadoes creating damage out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 TORNADO WARNINGALC025-129-170830-/O.NEW.KMOB.TO.W.0033.141117T0741Z-141117T0830Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL141 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL CLARKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...* UNTIL 230 AM CST* AT 137 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF CHATOM...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF TIBBIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... JACKSON... WAGARVILLE... SAINT STEPHENS... LEROY...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CST MONDAY MORNING FORSOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. A TORNADO WATCH ALSOREMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CST MONDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERNALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.&&LAT...LON 3175 8796 3152 8773 3138 8815 3147 8821TIME...MOT...LOC 0741Z 232DEG 31KT 3146 8813 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 552 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 135 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA FLORIDA PANHANDLE SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING FROM 135 AM UNTIL 900 AM CST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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