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2014 Severe Storm season


downeastnc

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Just got 'traced' by the Clayton storm. Debating on whether to fire the grill for some chicken before the Durham storm gets here. Love cloud watching when these storms pop up. Saw clouds at 3 different levels moving 3 different directions with this cell to the North.

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mcd1600.gif

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE   NEXT FEW HOURS FROM ERN KY SEWD ACROSS WRN VA INTO WRN AND CNTRL NC.   STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE SHOULD NOT   BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE   THREAT.   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD   ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN   THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F. SFC TEMPS ON THE ERN SLOPES OF THE   APPALACHIAN MTNS ARE NOW IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S F WHICH HAS   ALLOWED MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE   REGION. THE STRONGEST HEATING HAS OCCURRED FROM NEAR CHARLOTTE NC   NEWD TO NEAR LYNCHBURG VA WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO   2000 J/KG RANGE. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SRN NC...MESOSCALE   ANALYSIS IS SHOWING 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ABOVE 8.0 C/KM. AS THE   CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER ERN KY AND WRN VA MOVES SEWD INTO THE   STRONGER INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL   LAPSE RATES SHOULD MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING   WIND GUSTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
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I only thought I missed him , till he came back with his A game, lol! :)

Had a severe tstorm warning , but weakened as it got here, but lots of heavy rain!

Apparently , he's been busy at the humidity rally!

Hahaha! The good stuff has missed me just to the west 2 days in a row. Getting a little light rain now.

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  • 2 months later...

One last bump before the end of the 2014 severe season....

 

from MHXfor Monday afternoon

 

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 

 

 

From SPC and the new levels

 

post-141-0-35220100-1416144612_thumb.gif

 

 ...ERN CAROLINAS...

   RICHER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STREAM /LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS/ WILL
   ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ALONG A STRONG 60+ KT
   LLJ RESULTING IN WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY OVER THE ERN
   CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CAPE MAGNITUDE IS EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED DIABATIC
   WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG
   THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND CONTINUE EAST DURING
   THE DAY. SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO STRENGTHEN
   AS IT INTERCEPTS GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE
   ERN CAROLINAS. ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY STRONG VERTICAL
   WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES WITH LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. A
   CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY
   A TORNADO.
WILL INTRODUCE A MARGINAL RISK FOR NOW...BUT THIS AREA
   WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER UPDATES.

November has seen some pretty nasty tornados in NC

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One last bump before the end of the 2014 severe season....

 

from MHXfor Monday afternoon

 

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF

THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME

STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH THE

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 

 

 

From SPC and the new levels

 

attachicon.gifday2otlk_0700.gif

 

 ...ERN CAROLINAS...

   RICHER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STREAM /LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS/ WILL

   ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ALONG A STRONG 60+ KT

   LLJ RESULTING IN WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY OVER THE ERN

   CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CAPE MAGNITUDE IS EXPECTED TO

   REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED DIABATIC

   WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG

   THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND CONTINUE EAST DURING

   THE DAY. SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO STRENGTHEN

   AS IT INTERCEPTS GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE

   ERN CAROLINAS. ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY STRONG VERTICAL

   WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES WITH LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. A

   CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY

   A TORNADO. WILL INTRODUCE A MARGINAL RISK FOR NOW...BUT THIS AREA

   WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER UPDATES.

November has seen some pretty nasty tornados in NC

Do you anticipate the possibility of nasty tornadoes tomorrow?

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Do you anticipate the possibility of nasty tornadoes tomorrow?

 

Wind profiles look pretty decent to good in Eastern Carolinas, as noted by SPC, but we will have to see if these storms can get severe first due to little instability (thanks to the recent cold). If we can get enough CAPE to go with this wind profile, it wouldn't surprise me if we get one or couple of tornadoes creating damage out of this.

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TORNADO WARNING
ALC025-129-170830-
/O.NEW.KMOB.TO.W.0033.141117T0741Z-141117T0830Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
141 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL CLARKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
  EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 230 AM CST

* AT 137 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF CHATOM...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST
  OF TIBBIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  JACKSON...            WAGARVILLE...         SAINT STEPHENS...
  LEROY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CST MONDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CST MONDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

&&

LAT...LON 3175 8796 3152 8773 3138 8815 3147 8821
TIME...MOT...LOC 0741Z 232DEG 31KT 3146 8813

 

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TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 552
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   135 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     SOUTHERN ALABAMA
     FLORIDA PANHANDLE
     SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA
     COASTAL WATERS

   * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING FROM 135 AM UNTIL 900 AM CST.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
     ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
   MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF
   PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE
   FLORIDA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

  

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