Cold Rain Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 The forecast for yesterday was way off. The storms were supposed to come today instead of yesterday, and yesterday was supposed to be sunny and hot. It seems like forecasting when and where the storms will be around here is getting as difficult as forecasting winter weather. Was anyone forecasting the line of showers and storms that came through yesterday morning? Unless I missed something, every outlet I saw had a very low chance of storms for yesterday, and even then, the chance was for the afternoon/evening. And yeah, it was supposed to be in the upper 90s. It's hard to believe the forecast was missed that badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 Was anyone forecasting the line of showers and storms that came through yesterday morning? Unless I missed something, every outlet I saw had a very low chance of storms for yesterday, and even then, the chance was for the afternoon/evening. And yeah, it was supposed to be in the upper 90s. It's hard to believe the forecast was missed that badly. Yeah, and there have been other times where it seems the chance of storms have been overblown, too. It's missed both ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 28, 2014 Author Share Posted July 28, 2014 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b7KM28chL14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 RAH feels like most of us do with regards to yesterday/today's lack of weather ... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AS OF 1120 AM MONDAY...HARD TO IMAGINE THAT SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS AND THE PASSAGE OF ASURFACE FRONT IN LATE JULY WOULD RESULT IN SO LITTLE RAINFALL FORCENTRAL NC...AND THAT WHAT LITTLE RAIN THAT DID OCCUR RESULTED FROMAN MCV WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THEUPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. OVERWHELMINGNOCTURNAL CINH FOLLOWED THIS MORNING BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS SIMPLYPROVEN TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME.MOISTURE CHANNEL AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY INDICATE DEEP DRYNESS...ANDCAPPING/STABILITY PER PROXIMITY RAOBS AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS...HASENVELOPED ALL BUT SE NC THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THEREMAINDER OF TODAY WILL CONSEQUENTLY NOW BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERNSANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...INVOF AND AHEADOF A SFC TROUGH/FRONT THAT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM NEAR THENC OUTER BANKS TO THE SANDHILLS TO THE SC UPSTATE...AS DRY AIR INTHE 850-925 MB LAYER IS IMPARTED ON THE SFC WITH HEATING/MIXING.THESE AREAS WILL BE ON THE NW EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECASTTO DEVELOP OVER COASTAL AREAS...FUELED BY KMHX 12Z-OBSERVED MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM. IN ADDITION...A BELT OFSTRONG (40-50 KT) MID LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS-TN VALLEY-NC COAST WILL PROVIDE AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CHARACTERIZED BY LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY ANDKILM THROUGH 00Z - SUPPORTIVE OF A CONDITIONAL SVR RISK OF DAMAGINGWIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL (LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS PROVIDEDSTORMS CAN BOTH DEVELOP AND NOT SUCCUMB TO ENTRAINMENT OF THEAFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR ALOFT). HOWEVER...THIS PROBABILITY OF STORMSFORMING AND THRIVING IN THE RAH CWFA IS RELATIVELY LOW - ONLY AROUND20 PERCENT.OTHERWISE...A RELATIVELY TIGHT MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT ABOUT THE SFCFRONT WILL GENERATE A BREEZY GENERALLY WESTERLY SFC WIND (WNW OVERTHE PIEDMONT TO WSW OVER THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN)...WITHGUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERSSUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90SSE. LOWS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 65. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 we can't even buy a storm here at the coast haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b7KM28chL14 Nice! Here is my chase video. No tornado's but funnel clouds and high winds! http://youtu.be/ilzxaI8pBzc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 Just saw this report and it looks like someone was reporting a tornado in Carter Valley where I caught the supercell. At that moment it looked outflow dominate to me as the winds were gusting east and pushing out. Straight line winds would be my guess since all the trees I saw down in the area blow to the SE. I did see the power line down though and it look like it had been snapped in half near Church Hill. 2135 CHURCH HILL HAWKINS TN 3653 8271 REPORTS OF A POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN IN THE CHURCH HILL AND CARTER VALLEY AREA. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN WITH MODERATE DAMAGE TO SOME HOMES. (MRX) Here is the spot on the interstate I mentioned yesterday in which all the signs were blown down and the trees were twisted off. I wish I would have been there 10 minutes before but hindsight is 20/20. COLONIAL HEIGHTS SULLIVAN TN 3648 8251 POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE FROM ROUGHLY EXIT 56 ON I-81 TO EXIT 10 ON I-26. SEVERAL DAMAGED OR DESTROYED HOMES AND OTHER STRUCTURES. LARGE TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT THIS AREA. (MRX) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 Cells really blowing up now in SE NC, pretty unstable per mesoanalysis, storms may run out of real estate though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 Pretty unstable here as well. Everything still will probably fall apart despite 5000SBCAPE, 4000MLCAPE, and -9 LI. There is a reason why we weren't included in the watch lol. Well played SPC. The County next to us is further S and included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Tornado Warning 2nd of the day.. This cell doesn't look nearly as impressive as the one to the west of the doppler just north of Swansboro. That one has a nice hook on radar. Surface shear of 45kts in this area with helicity values of 100+. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CARTERET COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MOREHEAD CITY...BEAUFORT... * UNTIL 830 AM EDT * AT 800 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR OCEANA PIER...OR NEAR MOREHEAD CITY...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RACHEL CARSON ESTUARINE RESERVE...MITCHELL VILLAGE...WILDWOOD... MICHAEL J SMITH AIRPORT...STRAITS...CRAB POINT VILLAGE...OTWAY... BETTIE AND NORTH RIVER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Looks like we might have some severe weather to follow. Better than plain old boring rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 1, 2014 Author Share Posted August 1, 2014 Tornado Warning 2nd of the day.. This cell doesn't look nearly as impressive as the one to the west of the doppler just north of Swansboro. That one has a nice hook on radar. Surface shear of 45kts in this area with helicity values of 100+. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CARTERET COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MOREHEAD CITY...BEAUFORT... * UNTIL 830 AM EDT * AT 800 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR OCEANA PIER...OR NEAR MOREHEAD CITY...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RACHEL CARSON ESTUARINE RESERVE...MITCHELL VILLAGE...WILDWOOD... MICHAEL J SMITH AIRPORT...STRAITS...CRAB POINT VILLAGE...OTWAY... BETTIE AND NORTH RIVER My in laws have their camper at Goose Creek RV park right now we where suppose to go down there Sat/Sun.....that's just east of the bridge to Emerald Isle on the mainland side of the sound....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 My in laws have their camper at Goose Creek RV park right now we where suppose to go down there Sat/Sun.....that's just east of the bridge to Emerald Isle on the mainland side of the sound....... Yeah not the best place to be right now ha! I have my vacation planned next week for the beach and it looks like either rain or a tropical storm. At least I enjoy lightning so that will entertain me and hopefully I can luck out and catch a waterspout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Severe Thunderstorm Warning in effect for Montgomery & Randolph counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Matthew EastJust now · 11am:Severe storm has pressed into Randolph county; located near Seagrove and the NC Zoo. Winds over 70mph possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA NORTHEASTERN COBB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA * UNTIL 300 PM EDT * AT 226 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WOODSTOCK...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO KENNESAW STATE UNIVERSITY...LEBANON AND SWEAT MOUNTAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 This was my favorite tree to chill under on hot days. I have three in all that were split by the storm earlier. Also caught a 64mph gust, dime sized hail and 3+" of rain in under an hour. Edit: on my phone and the pics aren't uploading. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 on the Wilmington radar, the storm heading towards florence looks to have some rotation on it, interesting also that on the spc meso analysis se NC has some bulk shear going on, wish we could get the sun to break out but hard with the wedge front so close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 We have a slight risk over NC... SC also has a 5% wind threat. (See it's not allll about NC) No tornado threat in the NC slight risk but 15% high wind probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 ^ Here's the text: ...NC/FAR SRN VA/FAR NRN SC THIS AFTN... MORNING STLT DATA SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST MODERATE HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER THE NC AREA TODAY...BENEATH 30 KT NWLY 700-500 MB FLOW. LARGE- SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT A DISTURBANCE NOW IN WV/ERN KY WILL MOVE ACROSS REGION LATER TODAY. GIVEN HIGH PWS /AROUND 2 INCHES/...SETUP MAY YIELD A FEW S TO SE-MOVING CLUSTERS OF AFTN/EVE STORMS ALONG DIFFUSE FRONT AND/OR LEE TROUGH. THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DMGG WIND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 22, 2014 Author Share Posted August 22, 2014 Sounds almost derechoish and some of the better severe setups we get this time of year are long lived clusters diving in from WV/KY/VA hopefully whatever it does it moves fast so we don't get 2-3" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 We have a slight risk over NC... SC also has a 5% wind threat. (See it's not allll about NC) No tornado threat in the NC slight risk but 15% high wind probs. Good luck, I hope you guys get a nice show up there in NC. Minus damage of course. When we had severe storms here earlier in the week they were really explosive. There is so much energy for the storms to work with, how exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Good luck, I hope you guys get a nice show up there in NC. Minus damage of course. When we had severe storms here earlier in the week they were really explosive. There is so much energy for the storms to work with, how exciting. I am not hopeful for my area because we never do good with these back door fronts, but I hope everyone in the central and eastern parts of NC get a good lightshow! Nonetheless, it is very muggy up here in WNC today so if something were to pop, it would have fuel here. I have noticed though a lot of times that we get cloud debris from convection in the high mountains that's moves overhead and begins to block our sun around 4pm. This limits our instability in the valley and when those storms begin to move over they quickly weaken because of the deminished environment. Got to love living in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 22, 2014 Author Share Posted August 22, 2014 86 here with a DP of 73, parameters slowly moving up but with the full sun I suspect we will see cape jump up here over the next few hrs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 22, 2014 Author Share Posted August 22, 2014 Just got downgraded to see text the latest soundings look meh apparently...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Just got downgraded to see text the latest soundings look meh apparently...... people be like: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 22, 2014 Author Share Posted August 22, 2014 Yeah its pretty unstable and just plain miserable out but the mid levels are meh and there is no shear sooooooooooo Currently 90 over 73 ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Storms firing up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Rogue cells around the Triangle. Besides this, there's a new one moving into NW JoCo out of Wake Co. 405 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ORANGE... NORTHEASTERN CHATHAM...SOUTHWESTERN DURHAM AND WEST CENTRAL WAKE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...AT 403 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ASTRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CARRBORO...OR NEAR CHAPEL HILL...MOVINGSOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...CHAPEL HILL...PITTSBORO...CARRBORO... RDU INTERNATIONAL...MORRISVILLE...CROSSWINDS BOATING CENTER AND SEAFORTH BOAT DOCK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Looking at the sky off to my north and west, it looks like activity is beginning to take shape over central Wake. We'll see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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