Hvward Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Storm tops exploding down near Chapel Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 Some 50knt wind showing up just south of I40 headed right at the heart of Durham should see a warning fly on this one soon I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Well, if this line holds and comes through, then it clears and the sun comes out it is going to feel even more humid and muggy. Question is will the storms early this morning take away instability for later today and tonight, or add to it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Gusty with heavy rain now in Hboro-impressive winds but by no means severe in nature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 Well, if this line holds and comes through, then it clears and the sun comes out it is going to feel even more humid and muggy. Question is will the storms early this morning take away instability for later today and tonight, or add to it? It wont add or take away really if the sun comes back out, the atmosphere can only become as unstable as the setup allows. Add a bunch of sun and it will fire again the question is how much time do you get between rounds of storms if the gap is small then you wil lget mostly non severe but if we get 3-4 hrs of sun then this afternoon will be rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 It wont add or take away really if the sun comes back out, the atmosphere can only become as unstable as the setup allows. Add a bunch of sun and it will fire again the question is how much time do you get between rounds of storms if the gap is small then you wil lget mostly non severe but if we get 3-4 hrs of sun then this afternoon will be rough. Yes, that is what I am talking about. Sometimes if it storms earlier it just makes things soupier for later. If we get a lot of sun for a few hours and it gets up to the upper 90s with full sun, then it might bring round two later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 Yes, that is what I am talking about. Sometimes if it storms earlier it just makes things soupier for later. If we get a lot of sun for a few hours and it gets up to the upper 90s with full sun, then it might bring round two later. I doubt we get upper 90's, it would have to cap off after this line to do that and that wont happen, maybe 88-92 is possible but upper 90's would shock me. The shear is pushing south into NC pretty fast the last few updates on Meso have it moving 20-30 miles south every update so storms will be ongoing most of the day I suspect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 I doubt we get upper 90's, it would have to cap off after this line to do that and that wont happen, maybe 88-92 is possible but upper 90's would shock me. The shear is pushing south into NC pretty fast the last few updates on Meso have it moving 20-30 miles south every update so storms will be ongoing most of the day I suspect Would these storms be confined to east of I-95 or could some of us in central NC see some more action too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 I doubt we get upper 90's, it would have to cap off after this line to do that and that wont happen, maybe 88-92 is possible but upper 90's would shock me. The shear is pushing south into NC pretty fast the last few updates on Meso have it moving 20-30 miles south every update so storms will be ongoing most of the day I suspect I was basing it on the forecast high today of 97. But I don't think these storms were in the forecast this morning, so that might change things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Got a special weather statement for strong storms coming this way. It is very dark outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Storm is here. First rumble of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Heavy rain now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 I am thinking atmospheric recovery wont be a problem today with storms already firing again near Greensboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 The northern part of the line really kinda fizzed out the last 20 mins or so and the southern part is kinda lame as well. Parameters much better east of I95 though since there has been more sun and time to destabilize..... SPC saw fit to do a MD on it PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...A LINE OF TSTMS MOVING ACROSS CNTRL NC MAY POSE A RISK FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. ALTHOUGH A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN WIND POTENTIAL. DISCUSSION...A LINE OF TSTMS HAS FORMED THIS MORNING...ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A LONG-LIVED MCV MOVING OUT OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS. KRAX RADAR FROM 14Z SAMPLED APPROXIMATELY 30-35 KT ON BASE VELOCITY W OF RALEIGH AT 1-2K FT...AND WITH CONVECTION LIKELY STILL SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WIND GUSTS APPEARS MINIMAL ATTM. STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING DOWNSHEAR FROM THIS LINE AND WILL ERODE WEAK CINH PRESENT IN THE 12Z GSO/MHX SOUNDINGS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE CONVECTIVE LINE BECOMING ROOTED NEAR THE SFC OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS A RESULT...SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN A STRONG WIND THREAT POSSIBLE AS THE LINE APPROACHES THE NC COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER/SVR WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 One of the pitfalls of living so close to the RADAR site... Cloud tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 Snow Hill reporting some damage and they had a 64 mph gust near Goldsboro so not to bad and makes the warning they put on it legit.....now its a waiting game to see what if anything can get going later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Sun is coming out now and it feels like a sauna outside and it is only 77 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Debating on heading north an hour to Johnson City for a little chase. Or maybe I-40 towards Knoxville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Headed towards Jonesboro, Tn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 those two leading cells are prolly producing legit tornados Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Im thinking I have a better shot to go to the va line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 That cell dropping out of Kentucky and into SWVA is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 That cell dropping out of Kentucky and into SWVA is ridiculous. Decent hook but not a tight couplet on BV and no debris on CC...funnel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Brad Panovich 3 mins Supercell at the TN/KY line around 4pm EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 Decent hook but not a tight couplet on BV and no debris on CC...funnel? I am sure at the least its got a funnel but the RFD looks to be cutting it off its moving pretty darn quick.....last couple of scans where beyond nasty though...in fact its gotta be a TOG in that last scan debris for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 2% tor risk was extended further southward into NC by SPC almost covering much of the state, wind and hail as well. 18z RAP supercell parameter is 10+ over central NC at 00z, previous runs were staying north or around 2, 4ish NWS 3:40pmIT IS PROBABLE THAT SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE OUTFLOWBOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST VA INTO THE NORTHERN NCPIEDMONT...ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF AN MCV MOVING ESE INTO WEST-CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON...AND AMIDST INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFTAHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LASTSEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP ON THIS POTENTIAL.WILL ADVERTISE A CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OFTHE FORECAST AREA (INVOF THE BOUNDARY) THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITHAN ASSOCIATED CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF A MULTI-FACETED SVR RISK OFDAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THEEXPECTED STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR CENTERED OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AROUND00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Approaching gate city, va now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1487.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 We have cape in the 3000 range and can't buy a storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Latest hazardous weather outlook from RAH mentioned scattered to numerous storms through 1 a.m. With a chance for an isolated tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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