Brick Tamland Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 Yes, Monday does look interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 From the AFD this afternoon (RAH) MON/MON NIGHT: A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. UNSEASONABLY STRONG 40-60M HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON 40-50KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP PUSH OF THE STRONG WESTERLIES AND LONG...THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SUPERCELLS WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE EXACTLY WHERE THE LEE TROUGH SETS UP AND HOW MUCH DEWPOINTS MIX OUT AS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS. EAST OF THE TROUGH...MOST LIKELY FROM US HWY 1 EAST...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF -6C/KM TO MAYBE EVEN -7C/KM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW RATHER DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...THOUGH THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS...AND THE DRY AIR WILL LIKELY ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. AT THE MOMENT...CONFIDENCE IS STRONG THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY LIES HOW FAR EAST STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND THE OVERALL COVERAGE. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. -BLS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 Monday afternoon looking like it could be pretty rough severe weather wise..... Yeah gfs has +3000jk/g on the coast & spotty EHI of 1-2. With the moisture available, fireworks will be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 30% probs for eastern nc on Monday, how are the models looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Going from very hot Sunday and Monday to low and mid 80s Tuesday. That cold front must be stout. Looks like the question is will this be a situation where you have a line or cluster of storms, or more isolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 30% probs for eastern nc on Monday, how are the models looking? 06 GFS drops .01" over KJNX on Monday and only .10" for the week ~~~ per MeteoStar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 30% probs for eastern nc on Monday, how are the models looking? Good....mostly a hail threat but wouldn't be surprised to see a 5% risk for tornadoes along the coast or maybe even a 10% risk come Monday with the sea breaze involved, assuming models stay trending the way they are...timing is a bit off..if models can back up a bit and instead of making this an 11pm-2pm even for the coast, being a 8-11pm even would help a lot for severe...or maybe even back it up more than that. Jacksonville, NC has had some interesting curvature to some hodographs in bufkit, best maxed out sounding I've seen is PGV seen below on 06z NAM. should be interesting to see how this trends today and tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Our high for Monday is supposed to be 95, I'm sure we'll have some pretty strong instability if we don't get cloud debris from any left over mcs; Morehead's write up says sb cape on the order of 4000 with li's -9 to -10, the ingredients are definitely there with shear >35 knts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Yeah, the longer the storms hold off, the more heat and instability they will have to work with. If we do get to 95 without any storms in the morning or early afternoon, things could get interesting. Have to see what it does out west the next two days, too. They could get hit pretty hard in the Mississippi and Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 26, 2014 Author Share Posted July 26, 2014 Looks pretty unstable for sure, latest from SPC ...ERN CAROLINAS INTO EXTREME SERN VA... STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND BENEATH 40-60 KT MID TO UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. GIVEN THE FOCUSED FORCING FOR ASCENT...PERHAPS AIDED BY A SEA-BREEZE NEAR THE COAST...A ZONE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS OR SMALL CLUSTERS. THE STRONGEST CELLS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL/HEN EGG SIZE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Lots of uncertainty in the RAH afternoon discussion for Monday's severe threat in Central NC. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT. THE BEST CHANCES ARE STILL MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. IN THIS FAVORED REGION...MODELS ARE FORECASTING MUCAPE IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-8.5 DEG/KM...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7 DEG/KM. LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. GIVEN THAT ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT CONVECTION... WHERE IT DEVELOPS...TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE MUCH OVER CENTRAL NC. SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL FALL APART AS IT CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS... WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST LATE MONDAY AND/OR REMAIN NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION DEFINITELY EXISTS AND SHOULD IT DEVELOP ITS LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL BE STRONG/SEVERE...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING WITH REGARD TO WHETHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. ALSO...RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (SHOULD IT OCCUR) MAY ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN LIMITING CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S NW TO MID 90S SE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS...DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE. -KC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 I wouldn't look past tomorrow night in NC...hodographs and severe indices look maxed over eastern NC, especially PGV, and the 18z 4km nam just dropped a big one on central NC, went from completely dry to severe stroms over central NC at 11pm. Big change, and could mean an upgrade from SPC for tomorrow if trend continues. 12z was dry, here's the 18z 4km Tomorrow 7pm RDU.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 That is a huge change for tomorrow night. Have to keep an eye out. As far as Monday goes, sounds like more of the same from RAH with uncertainty about the coverage. That's been the case all summer. Of course, watch us all be focusing on Monday and something surprise us tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 That is a huge change for tomorrow night. Have to keep an eye out. As far as Monday goes, sounds like more of the same from RAH with uncertainty about the coverage. That's been the case all summer. Of course, watch us all be focusing on Monday and something surprise us tomorrow. 00z 4km nam keeps with the idea that Jon was mentioning. Large cell sort of backdooring central NC around 10-11pm and moving east, turning into a line later.. Looks like it misses Wake Forest though. sigh. Could be interesting to watch this unfold, the 4km nam did pretty well with the most recent fropa and where it fired convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 For Monday spc removed the 30% probs but makes mention of mcape 3500-4000, anything that does develop in ENC is going to explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 06z 4km nam this am wants to form a more linear line that gives WNC a much better shot at storms then it previously showed. Fine by me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 For Monday spc removed the 30% probs but makes mention of mcape 3500-4000, anything that does develop in ENC is going to explode. bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 nice line moving towards RDU currently.. Looks to be in the process of developing some good lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 nice line moving towards RDU currently.. Looks to be in the process of developing some good lightning. Yeah that's a bit surprising to see this morning,.....the clearing out in front of this line should help boost instability as it rolls along..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Yeah that's a bit surprising to see this morning,.....the clearing out in front of this line should help boost instability as it rolls along..... Yeah SPC expanding slight risk quite a bit! Some pretty decent shear also with that current line. 35kt in central nc & 40kt on the nc/va border. This front is pretty stout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 Yeah SPC expanding slight risk quite a bit! Some pretty decent shear also with that current line. 35kt in central nc & 40kt on the nc/va border. This front is pretty stout. Temp 79 DP is 75 so add some sun and things will go nuts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Heck of an early morning squall line forming in the NC Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Pretty decent hodograph and skew t-sounding for PGV from the 6z 4km nam. Looks like surface winds from the south around 15kts with backing upper level winds near 50kt. If nothing else this should produce a very strong storm if the 4km nam were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 Well the morning low clouds are burning off quickly sun already strong it feels terrible outside, we got the "air you can see" thing down here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 Line looks pretty damn nasty for 9 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Line looks pretty damn nasty for 9 am For real... very little break in it at all. Atmosphere locked and loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Crazy how dark and windy it's getting here in Hillsborough ahead of the line-and yeah, it's not even 10 in the morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 wow you guys are right that squall line is impressive especially for 9:30 am normally you'd see them dieing out around this time, full sun here at the coast 81/76, its def muggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 Borderline severe about to get into Durham, and the tail end of the line segment just south of Chapel Hill as well as long as it doesn't fizz in the next 5 mins....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 73 with a dew point of 72 here. That line of storms is getting closer. Wish we had some reports of what it is like a little further west towards the Triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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