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2014 Severe Storm season


downeastnc

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230 pm: Numerous storms now developing all across Triangle. Gusty winds to 30-40 mph & brief heavy rain possible thru 4pm. Stay safe!

 

 

Yep, the radar is lighting up.  I would pinpoint areas along a line just east of Wake County and areas along a line just east of Guilford and down through Randolph County as the most likely areas for severe over the next hour or two (in the Piedmont).

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To: Brick

From: RAH

 

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...

ACTIVITY IS FIRING IN ALL QUADRANTS AND WILL BE INCREASING COVERAGE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DEVELOPING CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. STRONG INSTABILITY (MUCAPE >3K JOULES) AND THE
MOISTURE-PRIMED ATMOSPHERE IS CONDUCIVE TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS WELL
AS THE CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS PRODUCING SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS.

A STRONGER SURGE IS EXPECTED AS THE COLD FRONT MERGES INTO THE LEE TROF
OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
THIS SURGE WILL SUPPORT A LINE OR LINES OF STRONGER STORMS...POTENTIALLY
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN THE TRIAD AROUND 400 PM AND MOVING
EAST TO THE TRIANGLE AROUND 800 PM. TRAINING STORMS COULD PRODUCE UP TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN AN HOURS TIME...WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY CAUSE
MINOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

STORMS WILL WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION...TAPERING OFF MORE RAPIDLY IN
THE TRIAD AS THE JUXTAPOSITIONED DYANAMICS SHIFT FOCUS FURTHER EAST. STORMS
WILL BE DIMINISHING IN THE TRIANGLE AND POINTS EAST TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST...THROUGH MORNING.

 

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A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
GRANVILLE...SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE AND CENTRAL DURHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 330
PM EDT...

AT 242 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A ...
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF DURHAM...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
ANOTHER INTENSE STORM WAS JUST EAST OF HILLSBOROUGH IN ORANGE COUNTY.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DURHAM...CHAPEL HILL...OXFORD...HILLSBOROUGH...CREEDMOOR...BUTNER...
STEM...LAKE BUTNER...ENO RIVER STATE PARK AND BAHAMA.

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308 pm: Storm over Cary heading toward Raleigh. Gusty winds and small hail possible.

 

 

That piddly little line of storms over Wake will probably intensify as it moves through and go severe on the other side.  It might hurt instability here for when the main line moves through later this evening.  Hopefully, we'll all get some rain at least.

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN GRANVILLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
NORTHWESTERN VANCE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA......
NORTHEASTERN PERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 343 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR VIRGILINA...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STOVALL...OAK HILL...BETHEL HILL...TUNGSTEN...MAYO RESERVOIR AND
JOHN H KERR RESERVOIR

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It seems a little odd that the SPC hasn't at least issued a MD for central areas at all.  Apparently, the severe threat is much less than advertised...surprise surpise.  But at least there are numerous showers/storms as advertised.  So, many areas should be picking up rain.

 


Just got a special weather statement on my phone for the dry air moving through Waycross.

 

Haha!

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Severe storms inbound through the Triangle:

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  GRANVILLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
  WESTERN WAKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
  NORTHEASTERN CHATHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
  DURHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
  EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
  SOUTHEASTERN PERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 434 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING
  WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM NEAR ROUGEMONT TO PITTSBORO...AND MOVING EAST AT 15
  MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RALEIGH...DURHAM...CARY...CHAPEL HILL...OXFORD...HILLSBOROUGH...
  CREEDMOOR...PITTSBORO...CARRBORO...BUTNER...ROUGEMONT...RDU
  INTERNATIONAL...APEX...HOLLY SPRINGS...MORRISVILLE...STEM...
  STOVALL...CROSSWINDS BOATING CENTER...SEAFORTH BOAT DOCK AND
  PARKWOOD.

 

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Flood Advisory too:

 

GRANVILLE NC-VANCE NC-WAKE NC-WARREN NC-ALAMANCE NC-CHATHAM NC-
FRANKLIN NC-DURHAM NC-ORANGE NC-PERSON NC-
427 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
  GRANVILLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
  VANCE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
  WAKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
  WARREN COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
  ALAMANCE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
  CHATHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
  FRANKLIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
  DURHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
  ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
  PERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 730 PM EDT

* AT 424 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
  THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN
  THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
  RALEIGH...DURHAM...CARY...CHAPEL HILL...BURLINGTON...HENDERSON...
  GRAHAM...OXFORD...ROXBORO AND HILLSBOROUGH.

 

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
DURHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 455 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WERE CONTINUOUSLY REDEVELOPING AND MOVING OVER THE WARNED
AREA. UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
DURHAM...CHAPEL HILL...ROUGEMONT...BETHESDA...PARKWOOD...BAHAMA...
GORMAN...RESEARCH TRIANGLE...ENO RIVER STATE PARK...FALLS LAKE AND
LAKE JORDAN.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA THROUGH 800 PM.

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07/15/2014 0400 PM


Hillsborough, Orange County.


Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by 911 call center.


 


Numerous trees down around Hillsborough


 


 


 


 


07/15/2014 0405 PM


2 miles S of Hillsborough, Orange County.


Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by amateur radio.


 


10 foot section of a wooden fence was knocked down near churton St and Lafayette Dr


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238 SVR T'Storm warnings from GSP so far this year with only 9 watches(6 SVR T'Storm,3 Tornado).That's a really lopsided number in my opinion.

 

In comparison to Raleigh which has been more active this spring/summer anyway,has 149 SVR T'Storm warnings with 15 watches(8 SVR T'Storm,7 Tornado).Peachtree City is almost an exact number.

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