Cold Rain Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Looks like it will continue to build will an area of 4000 j/kg near Greenville. Wow I bet it feels soupy out in those areas! EHI is also starting to gain a little steam. Yeah, was just getting ready to post that. Along and east of the Triangle, MLcape is 2500+, MU and SBcape is 3000+, and cape in the hail growth zone is over 500 j/kg. LIs are -5 or lower, and low level lapse rates are around 7/7.5 c/km. Definitely steamy and getting primed. We've got some insolation pollution going on now, as clouds are filling in, so that should put a bit of a damper on the rate of increase in instability for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Yeah, was just getting ready to post that. Along and east of the Triangle, MLcape is 2500+, MU and SBcape is 3000+, and cape in the hail growth zone is over 500 j/kg. LIs are -5 or lower, and low level lapse rates are around 7/7.5 c/km. Definitely steamy and getting primed. We've got some insolation pollution going on now, as clouds are filling in, so that should put a bit of a damper on the rate of increase in instability for a while. Yeah clouds look like they are inhibiting just a bit. Hopefully cape is close to 5000 j/kg in Brick's backyard because that man needs some rain. I am rooting for ya Brick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I guess I was right about the clouds limiting instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I guess I was right about the clouds limiting instability. Maybe, but nobody will know for sure unless you define what "limited instability" means. 500 j/kg? 1500? 2500? 4000? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Maybe, but nobody will know for sure unless you define what "limited instability" means. 500 j/kg? 1500? 2500? 4000? Limited enough so there are no storms around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Limited enough so there are no storms around. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 No. So you're saying we're going to have storms here today for sure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 So you're saying we're going to have storms here today for sure? He is saying conditions are very favorable. No one can predict how anvil blowoff from the storm 20 miles to your South is going to react. A lot of times if you are upwind it drifts over your area blocking off the sun and thus limiting the instability in your backyard. Until the storms start to pop, it is very difficult to narrow down specific regions around town that will get rain. The best we can do is look at Meso Analysis to see how much convective potential energy is available and how much direction and speed shear exist in the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 So you're saying we're going to have storms here today for sure? Well yeah. Some of us will. Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Well yeah. Some of us will. Absolutely. I'm not talking about others. If the clouds limit instability enough where there are fewer storms, and I don't get one, then the clouds limited instability enough to not get a storm. But I guess some action somewhere around here is better than none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 He is saying conditions are very favorable. No one can predict how anvil blowoff from the storm 20 miles to your South is going to react. A lot of times if you are upwind it drifts over your area blocking off the sun and thus limiting the instability in your backyard. Until the storms start to pop, it is very difficult to narrow down specific regions around town that will get rain. The best we can do is look at Meso Analysis to see how much convective potential energy is available and how much direction and speed shear exist in the atmosphere. Brick is just depressed because he hasn't had any rain lately (that he doesn't want anyway) and because the polar vortex isn't going to bring fall temperatures (that he doesn't want anyway). There will be storms around but maybe not over his house, though the best instability in the area should be located there, where the hot air is maximized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Just frustrated to have storms in the forecast and watches and such and not getting anything. But if there are severe storms in the area to follow, that would be better than nothing. It's not like snow so much, where if I don't get any at my house then I don't care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I'm not talking about others. If the clouds limit instability enough where there are fewer storms, and I don't get one, then the clouds limited instability enough to not get a storm. But I guess some action somewhere around here is better than none. If you cannot stop obsessing over your backyard, I'm going to give you a warning and start moving all your posts to banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Convection firing off now in central GA, central and eastern SC, and southeastern NC. Just had a quick shower move through Raleigh. Small showers have popped up in northwestern NC. We need to watch that area early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I'm not talking about others. If the clouds limit instability enough where there are fewer storms, and I don't get one, then the clouds limited instability enough to not get a storm. But if there are severe storms in the area to follow, that would be better than nothing. It's not like snow so much, where if I don't get any at my house then I don't care. That's not the best explaination for why a storm didn't occur at your location, if it didn't. You can have uniform instability and scattered thunderstorms. In fact, most of the time, you generally do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Got thunder just to our West! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 If you cannot stop obsessing over your backyard, I'm going to give you a warning and start moving all your posts to banter. OK, but it was only a couple of posts. And I said some action anywhere around here is better than none at all even if I don't have a storm in my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 It's a couple of posts almost every day. Enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Just frustrated to have storms in the forecast and watches and such and not getting anything. But if there are severe storms in the area to follow, that would be better than nothing. It's not like snow so much, where if I don't get any at my house then I don't care. You really want severe weather to pop up just to have something to follow? Sucks for whoever gets hit. In any event, I guess in the Triangle we're not looking at the storms till later this evening with the front, or should we expect activity well before then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 About to get crushed I'm on the north side of the Pamlico right across from Aurora... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 SB and MUcape at 4000+ over the eastern piedmont, with MLcape 2500/3000+. LIs -6 and LL Lapse rates at 8. Cape in the hail zone is 500-600 j/kg. Instability shouldn't be a concern in this area. It's a bit less to the west. Cells now firing in the western piedmont and the sun is out here in Raleigh again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Was just about to say the clouds seem to be breaking and the sun is out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Myrtle Beach per Panovich FB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 WRAL Mike Maze 1 min · The Doppler Radar is becoming quite active across the region as our cold front approaches the state. The Storm Prediction Center will likely issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch shortly for much of the viewing area through this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1388 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1223 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...NEW YORK CITY...NJ...DE...FAR SE PA...MD...ERN VA...NE NC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 151723Z - 151900Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NE NC EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE VICINITY OF NEW YORK CITY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SRN PA SWD INTO VA AND NRN NC. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE TROUGH ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F AND THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. RAP MESOANALYSIS DATA IS SUGGESTING THAT TWO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXIST. THE FIRST IS LOCATED IN SRN NJ WITH THE SECOND OVER SERN VA AND NERN NC WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. CONCERNING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WSR-88D VWPS FROM WASHINGTON DC NNEWD ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR NEWARK NJ SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 40 KT OF FLOW IN THE 3 TO 5 KM LAYER. THIS IS CREATING MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN DEVELOP SHOULD HAVE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WILL ALSO HAVE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL COULD BECOME MORE SUBSTANTIAL IF CELLS CAN CONGEAL INTO A LARGER LINE SEGMENTS WITH A COLD POOL ORGANIZING. ..BROYLES/HART.. 07/15/2014 Severe Watch for VA/NC border Co.'s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I thought more of eastern NC would be in the watch based on the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I thought more of eastern NC would be in the watch based on the discussion. Just wait man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Just wait man. Maybe they will issue a separate watch for more of NC later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Just wait man. Don't fall for the bananna in the tailpipe. You know, Brick has to build up his platform on the way up so that he can have the massive cliff dive on the way down. That's a nasty complex of storms N / NW of Wilmington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Mike Maze at WRAL said he was surprised that more of NC wasn't in the watch, too, based on the meso discussion. But he thinks it will still be active outside the watch area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.