Solak Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Anyone seeing any hint of rotation in that Smithfield NC storm? There's a layer of low clouds moving from E to W while the storms are coming in from the SW. I'm not picking up anything on my old GR3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Anyone seeing any hint of rotation in that Smithfield NC storm? There's a layer of low clouds moving from E to W while the storms are coming in from the SW. I'm not picking up anything on my old GR3. There is a tad of broad rotation on that one. The best rotation currently is on the cell near Holly Springs/Apex and the cell near Sanford/Broadway. The one near Holly Springs looks pretty mean. North of Broadway that cell is developing nicely too. These look to move close to Raleigh metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Just got a call from Greg Fishel. It's coming for us Brick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Man look at the cell near Wendell get going. Moving right towards Middlesex. Lots of rotation. All the storms around RDU are developing rotation on the northern portion of the storm, pretty unique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Storms are starting to fire off in Wake. Just got the warning from Greg Fishel. Wife and kids are out of town and I am eating right now at a hibachi place near Youngsville. If anything big happens I might have to chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Does NWS Raleigh issue a STW for every storm that pops up? The only storm that needs a warning is the one in Clayton. The other two don't look impressive. Solak is getting in on all the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Does NWS Raleigh issue a STW for every storm that pops up? The only storm that needs a warning is the one in Clayton. The other two don't look impressive. Solak is getting in on all the fun.You worry about Waycross, Brick Fischel has Raleigh under control! Severe storms downed some trees and produced 1 inch hail, that was a severe storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 You worry about Waycross, Brick Fischel has Raleigh under control! Severe storms downed some trees and produced 1 inch hail, that was a severe storm!Link? Not on SPC. Only the far right Severe Warned storm is meaning business. Check out the SuperRes Velocity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 That was impressive - not much wind, a lot of lightning, and 2.86" in 45 minutes! Glad I had the funnel out of the gauge, or it would have been vastly under measured, as intense as it was coming down. It was rolling off the roof so hard it backed up into one of the vent fan caps and was dripping down in the kitchen! Lynne said that had happened once before... she couldn't remember if it was Dennis or Floyd. First time for me though, in the 9 years (yesterday) we've been married. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Looks like most of the action is to the south of me. I just heard a rumble of thunder, so maybe a storm made it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Link? Not on SPC. Only the far right Severe Warned storm is meaning business. Check out the SuperRes Velocity.The downed trees and 1 inch hail were around me, to my N in Tigerville and Travelers Rest area! My apologies for leaving that info out of my last post. Donkey shame! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 They just cancelled the watch, and now it sounds like I am finally going to get a storm at the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 A few rumbles of thunder and that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 A few rumbles of thunder and that's it. Man, you have no manner of luck whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 I didn't go to the park tonight snd walk because I thought it was going to storm. It looked like it was ging to, and I heard the thunder, but then it didn't do anything. Not even any rain but a few sprinkles. I didn't want to be walking in the park and get caught in a storm. Sucks I wasted my time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 I didn't go to the park tonight snd walk because I thought it was going to storm. It looked like it was ging to, and I heard the thunder, but then it didn't do anything. Not even any rain but a few sprinkles. I didn't want to be walking in the park and get caught in a storm. Sucks I wasted my time. What?? How did you waste your time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 This had to have been a nasty one for Norfolk VA metro area- some rotation and 1-2" hail just outside of Norfolk! 1855z AKQ.png Good catch! Confirmed EF-0 by NWS today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Meso Discussion for today. Looks like Central NC could see a damaging wind threat. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1366 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WV...WRN AND CNTRL VA...WRN AND CNTRL NC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 141650Z - 141815Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN VA AND WCNTRL NC. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WHETHER THIS AREA WILL NEED A WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS EXTENDING FROM CNTRL VA SWWD ACROSS CNTRL NC. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE SFC TROUGH ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F AND MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ACCORDING TO THE RAP. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR ERN KY AND IN WRN VIRGINA. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS GRADUALLY EXPAND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND MOVE THIS ACTIVITY EWD ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...LESS THAN 20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF WRN VA AND WRN NC ACCORDING TO 88D VWPS...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ESTIMATED AROUND 8.0 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED WITH SHORT MULTICELL LINE-SEGMENTS AND CELL MERGERS. ..BROYLES/HART.. 07/14/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 All bark and no bite with that 3:00 cell, despite a Special Weather Statement and sitting under reds, oranges and yellows for 20 minutes. Picked up .05". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Was off work today for my son's birthday. Went to a movie and looked like it had rained a little. Had a fffew rumbles of thunder at 4:00 and that's it. But tomorrow we're supposed to have a good chance of storms all afternoon and night. We'll see. I have heard that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 WRAL hyping the threat of severe storms on their website this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Was coming to post about Mesoscale Analysis Brick, I can see why. Good shear moving in from the west with the front will meet up with a moist southerly flow that has already built unstable cape values above 2000 j/kg this am across Central/Eastern NC. The HRRR has these storms moving NE which seems to be the direction that gives us the best spin-ups in NC (or anywhere else) so today could be a bit interesting, but I am skeptical due to the time of year it is. Nonetheless, it will be neat to see how high the cape gets this afternoon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Was coming to post about Mesoscale Analysis Brick, I can see why. Good shear moving in from the west with the front will meet up with a moist southerly flow that has already built unstable cape values above 2000 j/kg this am across Central/Eastern NC. The HRRR has these storms moving NE which seems to be the direction that gives us the best spin-ups in NC (or anywhere else) so today could be a bit interesting, but I am skeptical due to the time of year it is. Nonetheless, it will be neat to see how high the cape gets this afternoon! We'll see. Seems like they have been hyping storms a lot this year only for them never to materialize, or to be very isolated in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 I'm down on the river/sound near North Creek for the week and have a great view so hopefully we get some good storms to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Was coming to post about Mesoscale Analysis Brick, I can see why. Good shear moving in from the west with the front will meet up with a moist southerly flow that has already built unstable cape values above 2000 j/kg this am across Central/Eastern NC. The HRRR has these storms moving NE which seems to be the direction that gives us the best spin-ups in NC (or anywhere else) so today could be a bit interesting, but I am skeptical due to the time of year it is. Nonetheless, it will be neat to see how high the cape gets this afternoon! CAPE seems to diminish some after mixing starts. I wonder if today will be the typical case of cape dropping off a bit later today or if it will just build all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 From RAH: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 from the Avaition part of the AFD update.. AS OF 745 AM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICHWILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIONWILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SCATTEREDTHUNDERSTORM PEPPERING THE AREA DURING MAX HEATING INTO EVENING.MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY ACCOMPANY HEAVY SHOWERS ANDSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AND AT THEIR STRONGEST INTHE 19-22Z TIME FRAME IN THE WEST (GSO/INT)...AND IN THE 22-02Z TIMEFRAME IN THE EAST (RDU/FAY/RWI). PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTAT 10 TO 12 KNOTS...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED WITHTHUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE GUSTSUP TO 50 KNOTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 CAPE seems to diminish some after mixing starts. I wonder if today will be the typical case of cape dropping off a bit later today or if it will just build all day. Looks like it will continue to build with an area of 4000 j/kg near Greenville. Wow I bet it feels soupy out in those areas! EHI is also starting to gain a little steam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Cloudy and 86 here in north Raleigh. I wonder if the cloud cover will limit instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Fancy words: AS OF 1120 AM TUESDAY...FEW ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE LATE MORNING UPDATE. SEEING A FEW SMALL SHOWERS DEVELOP AND SCOOT RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AT AROUND 30 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN LATE THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE CAULDRON SIMMERS NICELY WITH UPPER 80S OVER MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWFA. STILL WAITING ON THE NORTHWEST WHERE SURFACECONVERGENCE AT 15Z WAS MORE FOCUSED BUT IT WAS ALSO A LITTLE MORESTABLE IN THAT AREA...EXPECT RAPID EXPANSION IN COVERAGE JUST ABOUTEVERYWHERE OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...WITH ONGOING LIKELY POPS LOOKINGGOOD ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 18Z. A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO TEMP/TDTRENDS OTHERWISE STEADY AS SHE GOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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