Brick Tamland Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 I thought we were supposed to get rain all weekend. I'm glad it wasn't a washout, but it seems the storms for this weekend were overhyped again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 I will be watching Meso Analysis today, could be an interesting day for the central/eastern parts of NC. Have a nice southerly flow colliding with an east moving boundary and jet max during the prime heat of the day. Could have a tornadic cell or two even though this is pretty unseasonable for that area. Should be interesting to watch unfold though currently there isn't much support from the HRRR. We shall see. Also looks like tomorrow will be active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Decent cape along with stout dcape, just need the storms to get going here in ENC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 9, 2014 Author Share Posted July 9, 2014 There is actually a little bit of shear to work with so maybe instead of pulse severe we can get some decent clusters or line segments fired up.....parameters in eatern NC pretty strong overall already got some storms firing back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Matthew East had this to say on facebook: 1:21pm: Showers/ a couple of stormd developing in Wilkes & Surry county. A few severe storms possible later this PM. 1:26pm: Lots of showers/ storms developing in SC and GA. Will impact parts of NC this PM. Storms on radar in SC looked to be in clusters and lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1327NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1251 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2014AREAS AFFECTED...NE GA...SC...WRN NC...SRN VACONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELYVALID 091751Z - 091915ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENTSUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF ERNGA...THE WRN CAROLINAS AND SRN VA. MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTSWOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING EWDACROSS THE OH VALLEY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LOCATED ACROSSMUCH OF THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THEMID TO UPPER 60S F ACROSS THE MCD AREA WITH MODERATE INSTABILITYDEVELOPING ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM ERN GA NNEWD ACROSS THE WRNCAROLINAS INTO VA. MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG MUCHOF THIS CORRIDOR BY RAP-V2 DATA. IN ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP ATRAONOKE VA SHOWS A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE WITH 30 TO 40 KT OFFLOW ABOVE 2 KM AGL. THIS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSERATES THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND-DAMAGETHREAT WITH CELL MERGERS AND SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS...BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/09/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Currently the best looking cell on radar right now is southwest of Chatham, VA and moving east. Just intersected a boundary so it should show some rotation on radar. Also some decent discrete cells popping up around RDU and SW. Lots of lightning on the cell near Sanford. Edit: Also cell near Clayton just blew up and was so close to the radar I didn't see it. Very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Interesting to see what happens if this line gets east, per the mesoanalysis ENC is pretty unstable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Interesting to see what happens if this line gets east, per the mesoanalysis ENC is pretty unstable. Yeah, noon hodograph for KMHX looks to have pretty stout parcel growth with decent lapse rates in the low to mid levels. Would really improve if surface winds could pick up. LLJ will kick in as the sun goes down so we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 WRAL Mike Maze 5 mins · We have seen a line of showers and storms form this afternoon and are moving to the east. We should see more showers and storms form through the evening with some lasting overnight. Tomorrow appears to be an active day with good coverage of showers and storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Edit: Also cell near Clayton just blew up and was so close to the radar I didn't see it. Very impressive. That's the problem I have living so close to the radar site. Sometimes it doesn't get a good capture of what's going on overhead IMBY. That Clayton cell that grazed us sent out one clap of thunder that sounded like a cannon on the back porch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 That's the problem I have living so close to the radar site. Sometimes it doesn't get a good capture of what's going on overhead IMBY. That Clayton cell that grazed us sent out one clap of thunder that sounded like a cannon on the back porch! Yeah living in the mountains we have our radar blocks but I bet its pretty rough watching a storm for 45 or so minutes, only to lose it on radar as it get to your backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Cell SE of Murfreesboro, NC looks ominous. Has broad rotation and 45k+ tops with a good bit of lightning showing up. Could potentially see a tor warning at some point in time. Cells on VA/NC line in eastern NC are getting into a better environment with better EHI so structure should start to improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 So, where are the storms? Cloudy here but that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 So, where are the storms? Cloudy here but that's it. Sorry Brick.. Can't win them all. But hey I got storms.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 The problem lately is every time the forecasters mention there is a good chance of storms, especially the local ones, it never seems to happen. Now I saw them say the coverage should be wider tomorrow. We'll see. They have said that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 The problem lately is every time the forecasters mention there is a good chance of storms, especially the local ones, it never seems to happen. Now I saw them say the coverage should be wider tomorrow. We'll see. They have said that before. It happened. It just didn't happen to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 It happened. It just didn't happen to you. Maybe time for a review of what "50% chance" means? Today, Raleigh actually has a 60% chance of rain. Brick will probably be in the 40%, which will then equal a 0% chance areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Maybe time for a review of what "50% chance" means? No, it's mor elike the local mets saying things on facebook like there are storms popping up and moving our way, and then they never happen here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 No, it's mor elike the local mets saying things on facebook like there are storms popping up and moving our way, and then they never happen here. False....again with they hyperbole. Pop-up showers and storms are erratic in both their development and movement. This isn't a shock. It does suck when you're not the one getting the rain (but you don't like showers/storms anyway...you like sunny and hot). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 False....again with they hyperbole. Pop-up showers and storms are erratic in both their development and movement. This isn't a shock. It does suck when you're not the one getting the rain (but you don't like showers/storms anyway...you like sunny and hot). I wasn't talking about pop-up showers. Yesterday it was supposedly a line of storms heading east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 I wasn't talking about pop-up showers. Yesterday it was supposedly a line of storms heading east. Really? I didn't hear that one. I can't get facebook at work though. I thought it was supposed to be general showers and storms developing, waxing and waning as they moved along. I usually just read the NWS discussion to gain an understanding of what features will be responsible for initiating, maintaining, and propagating convection and then follow radar trends. Yesterday, we had a stalled/slow moving cold front to the west of the state and a differntial heating boundary through the center of the area. With decent instability and high moisture content, the environment seemed favorable for general, non-organized convection (read low severe threat and random evolution and dissipation of storms). And that's what we got. Today, we have the same cold front moving farther east. We have general instability and high moisture content. There are probably some outflow boundaries around too. There are enough mechanisms present to warrant a high chance of rain. But if you're expecting an organized line of storms that moves through the whole area and soaks everyone with rain, then I would reset that expectation. Showers and storms are likely to pop up (and maybe even in a linear shape!) and provide greater coverage than yesterday, but not everyone will get wet...yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Severe thunderstorm watch until 9:00 pm. 136 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2014The National Weather Service has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch410 in effect until 9 PM EDT this evening for the following areasIn North Carolina this watch includes 14 countiesIn central North CarolinaCumberland Edgecombe Franklin Halifax Harnett Hoke Johnston Nash Sampson Scotland wake Warren Wayne Wilson This includes the cities of...Angier...Benson...Cary...Clayton...Clinton...Dunn...Erwin...Fayetteville...Franklinton...Goldsboro...Laurinburg...Lillington...Louisburg...Nashville...Norlina...Raeford...Raleigh...Red Oak...Roanoke Rapids...Rockfish...Rocky Mount...Selma...Sharpsburg...Silver City...Smithfield...Spring Hope...Warrenton and Wilson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Severe thunderstorm watch until 9:00 pm. 136 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2014The National Weather Service has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410 in effect until 9 PM EDT this evening for the following areas In North Carolina this watch includes 14 counties In central North Carolina Cumberland Edgecombe Franklin Halifax Harnett Hoke Johnston Nash Sampson Scotland wake Warren Wayne Wilson This includes the cities of...Angier...Benson...Cary...Clayton... Clinton...Dunn...Erwin...Fayetteville...Franklinton...Goldsboro... Laurinburg...Lillington...Louisburg...Nashville...Norlina... Raeford...Raleigh...Red Oak...Roanoke Rapids...Rockfish... Rocky Mount...Selma...Sharpsburg...Silver City...Smithfield... Spring Hope...Warrenton and Wilson. Yep, it looks like the western edge of the watch depicts very well the initiation point of the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 All the storms now look either to the north or south of Raleigh now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 This had to have been a nasty one for Norfolk VA metro area- some rotation and 1-2" hail just outside of Norfolk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1338 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0315 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...ERN NC...ERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 410... VALID 102015Z - 102115Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 410 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...SCT-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. DISCUSSION...SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING WILL GRADUALLY STABILIZE MUCH OF THE AIR MASS ACROSS WW410. CONVECTIVELY AIDED SEA BREEZE HAS SURGED INLAND AND APPEARS TO BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF STRONG STORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE CURRENT WATCH. WHILE NEW STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG STRONGER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...IT APPEARS MORE ROBUST CONVECTION MAY CONCENTRATE ACROSS ERN SC WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES HAVE YET TO BE OVERTURNED. STRONG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..DARROW.. 07/10/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Looks like I am right on the line within that box. Used to it with snow, and now it's with storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Strong line heading out of Greenville with a few areas of rotation but nothing getting its act together. Washington current has surface helicity values of 100+ so it will be interesting to see what happens with these cells. Lots of lightning on the cell near Beargrass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.