Cold Rain Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 I just noticed this talk about stout numbers. I'm not picking on any one particular post. We need a match to set off all this stuff and in summer it's really hard to get a spark to set off the gasoline. That's why something as small as an outflow boundary can set off the gasoline (high cape and LI ect....). Also once the matchc is set the gas burns off in a localized area and the storms usually are kot long lived and die (pulse type storms) #truestory Gas isn't the only thing, like you said, but it is needed. In fact, I just hit up El Rodeo and knocked out a couple of burritos and some refried beans. Gas aint gonna be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 Storms N of Greenville , SC collapsed on their way here. The drought continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 Just got done eating at Outback in north Raleigh and the clouds here look wicked.. might have a good storm soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 Just got done eating at Outback in north Raleigh and the clouds here look wicked.. might have a good storm soon.Only if you had the bloomin' onion and the sauce , there will be a big storm churning up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 21, 2014 Author Share Posted June 21, 2014 SPC for tomorrow ...SE VA...COASTAL CAROLINAS... STRONG SFC HEATING BENEATH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL RESULT IN WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION BY LATE MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK LEE TROUGH AND AHEAD OF A SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LACK OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION. BUT...PW VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MAINLY A STRONG/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL BUT A FEW INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 Just got done eating at Outback in north Raleigh and the clouds here look wicked.. might have a good storm soon. That's what I'm talking about! What did you get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 21, 2014 Author Share Posted June 21, 2014 SPC going slight risk for parts of NC today ...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS... DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF A SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MODERATELY LARGE CAPE...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN EAST SOUTHEASTWARD LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WAVE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO COASTAL PLAIN. WHILE THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL SEEMS NEGLIGIBLE...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 This summer reminds me more of the summers I remember growing up, where there seemed to be a chance of storms every afternoon. I don't recall it being like that in the recent past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 This summer reminds me more of the summers I remember growing up, where there seemed to be a chance of storms every afternoon. I don't recall it being like that in the recent past.Last year was the wettest year on record for many places in NC, actually the majority of the SE. This year is nothing close to last year. Atlanta had rain I believe every weekend from June to September last year. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40637-the-big-wet-of-2013/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 Last year was the wettest year on record for many places in NC, actually the majority of the SE. This year is nothing close to last year. Atlanta had rain I believe every weekend from June to September last year. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40637-the-big-wet-of-2013/ Brick might just have a memory of a goldfish or something. Last year was much better than this year as far as storms go, and 2012 better than 2013, and everyone knows what 2011 looked like. We had a mod risk in mid june last year....we didn't have a mod risk this year as I recall, but we did have a 10% tornado risk, I don't remember what day that was though but it didn't verify at all. Check out the precip end of June into July (I saw a similar image in the link your provided I just found this pic in my saved archives so I thought I'd post) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 This summer reminds me more of the summers I remember growing up, where there seemed to be a chance of storms every afternoon. I don't recall it being like that in the recent past.you're wrong as the forecast on wncn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 you're wrong as the forecast on wncn I have had plenty of storms at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 I have had very few storms at my house this month. We seem to have chances frequently, but I've missed more than I've hit over the last month. I may have asked this before, but does it seem like there are way more severe thunderstorm warnings than there used to be? It seems like any storm with a lot of red echoes in it gets warned nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 I have had very few storms at my house this month. We seem to have chances frequently, but I've missed more than I've hit over the last month. I may have asked this before, but does it seem like there are way more severe thunderstorm warnings than there used to be? It seems like any storm with a lot of red echoes in it gets warned nowadays. I have the same feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 I have the same feeling. I guess maybe the technology has gotten advanced enough so that localized aspects of a severe storm can be detected with enough accuracy to warrant the issuance of a warning. The problem is with so many warnings, I fear people don't really pay much mind to them. When I'm under a severe storm warning, I always get excited about it, but I rarely ever witness severe weather. I guess, back to my previous point, the radar technology can accurately verify that there is at least a small area of severe weather being produced, where maybe 20 years ago, that couldn't be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 I guess maybe the technology has gotten advanced enough so that localized aspects of a severe storm can be detected with enough accuracy to warrant the issuance of a warning. The problem is with so many warnings, I fear people don't really pay much mind to them. When I'm under a severe storm warning, I always get excited about it, but I rarely ever witness severe weather. I guess, back to my previous point, the radar technology can accurately verify that there is at least a small area of severe weather being produced, where maybe 20 years ago, that couldn't be determined. I hate to admit this, but I turned off my weather radio about a week ago because it was driving me crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Looks like we might be getting more warnings in the next week. Except for tomorrow, there is a good chance of scattered storms every day for the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 RAH showing a line of storms coming through NC tonight. Saw this on facebook from them. The threat for scattered thunderstorms will increase late this afternoon through early evening. This what the radar coverage may look like around 8 PM this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 25, 2014 Author Share Posted June 25, 2014 I guess maybe the technology has gotten advanced enough so that localized aspects of a severe storm can be detected with enough accuracy to warrant the issuance of a warning. The problem is with so many warnings, I fear people don't really pay much mind to them. When I'm under a severe storm warning, I always get excited about it, but I rarely ever witness severe weather. I guess, back to my previous point, the radar technology can accurately verify that there is at least a small area of severe weather being produced, where maybe 20 years ago, that couldn't be determined. I think some CWS are worse than others, personally here in eastern NC they are pretty conservative with the warnings in fact there are times when I wonder why they haven't warned a cell, on the other hand places out west especially in the NW corner of the state seem to warn every cell....but like you said if the radars are showing winds or hail that meet the criteria for a severe thunderstorm a warning is needed even if the area producing those conditions is small and localized. Another thing I think they do more of now is warn in advance large areas because they expect the storms to be bad etc....the so called blanket warnings...this is good I guess but its a bit annoying to me for some reason to see a third of NC under a warning at one time lol. This afternoon might hold a few good storms, need to see a lot of sun this morning into afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Looks like some storms are firing east of Roanoke Rapids and back towards the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 WRAL Mike Maze 24 mins · Wondering where the showers and storms are this afternoon? They are developing off to our west and heading in our direction. We should see activity locally by 5pm this afternoon and last in a scattered fashion through the evening. Tune in at 5PM on WRAL to see why we could see an increase in storm coverage heading into the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 WRAL Mike Maze 24 mins · Wondering where the showers and storms are this afternoon? They are developing off to our west and heading in our direction. We should see no activity by 5pm this afternoon and little else in the way of rain through the evening, as the showers and storms evaporate as the head into the area. Tune in at 5PM on WRAL to see why we could see an increase in storm coverage heading into the weekend. And tune in tomorrow when we'll slash precip chances across the board and discuss why it always looks like a wide coverage of storms 3 days out only to end up giving 5% of the viewing area rain by the time it's all said and done. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 RAH showing a line of storms coming through NC tonight. Saw this on facebook from them. The threat for scattered thunderstorms will increase late this afternoon through early evening. This what the radar coverage may look like around 8 PM this evening. The newest run of the model they posted above, the 12z WRF NMM, shows absolutely NO storms where they are seen in the screenshot they shared on social media. In fact, Central NC is dry. Odd model to choose (it has two versions NMM & ARW), I'd guess they'd show the 4km NAM for a more general idea or the HRRR... I've seen WRF NMM/ARW sometimes used as a News station's "in-house" models they show on futurecast, I believe, so maybe that's the reasoning. Anyway, 8pm has a good chance at being dry. In fact, other than a few isolated pulse storms I'd almost guarantee it, no other guidance forms a line of convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Fixed.Thanks for the laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 I had about 5 rumbles of thunder and 5 minutes of rain yesterday evening. They really missed that one yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1171 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 271854Z - 272115Z CORRECTED FOR LINE TYPE PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT SUMMARY...STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WATCH IS CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND ALONG A SEA BREEZE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH THE STRONGEST NEAR CHESTERFIELD/KERSHAW/LANCASTER COUNTIES. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG INSTABILITY /2000-3000 J/KG/ AND WEAKENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /AT OR BELOW 30 KNOTS/. THE PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE MODEST/WEAKENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL ACT TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE...BUT THE BRIEF/LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 WRAL Mike Maze 2 mins · Big downpours in the Eastern part of the state with those slow moving showers and storms. Outflow boundaries heading west out of these showers should propagate the development of these showers farther west into the evening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 WRAL Mike Maze 2 mins · Big downpours in the Eastern part of the state with those slow moving showers and storms. Outflow boundaries heading west out of these showers should once again squelch the development of these showers farther west into the evening! Another big fail for the Triangle area. Tune in at 6 to find out how much rain we will miss over the weekend! Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 Outflow is actually coming through here now. Gusty winds and cooler. I went for a run about 20 minutes ago under partly cloudy skies. They've completely clouded over now and there are even a few rumbles of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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