Buddy1987 Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Severe weather season in the SE is OVER. Or at least tornado season is. It's extremely rare to have tornadoes in the summer months in the south, unless it's the product of a tropical system. Yes however I cannot recall if it was Accuweather or the Weather Channel that covered a great approximate three minute discussion on this but due to several contributing factors they stated that severe weather season would become rampant this year from the June-July timeframe rather than the traditional April-May timeframe. Be mindful of this maybe not so much for your neck of the woods but just watching the MCS and derecho talks starting to heat up for today and tomorrow it may be coming to fruition. Just some food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 GSP has a good write up in their AFD . They say if the MCS misses to our north on Wednesday night, that the NAM shows cape of 4000+ in our forecast area ahead of the front on Thur. ! That's unusually high for our area and could lead to a very severe outbreak of damaging storms and they mention isolated tornado threat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PROBABLY SEVERE WITHDAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL...ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY A COLDFRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY. Looks like the system that is in the midwest today could affect us. WRAL said we will have a moderate risk Thursday for severe storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Looks like the system that is in the midwest today could affect us. WRAL said we will have a moderate risk Thursday for severe storms.Moderate risk? I think you mean slight chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Looks like the system that is in the midwest today could affect us. WRAL said we will have a moderate risk Thursday for severe storms.Lol no. I don't think it will be that severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Moderate risk? I think you mean slight chance. Just repeating what Elizabeth Gardner said this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Just repeating what Elizabeth Gardner said this morning.she said something? That see through white shirt is so distracting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 GSP has a good write up in their AFD . They say if the MCS misses to our north on Wednesday night, that the NAM shows cape of 4000+ in our forecast area ahead of the front on Thur. ! That's unusually high for our area and could lead to a very severe outbreak of damaging storms and they mention isolated tornado threat! I just read that write up. You don't see them talking something up and using that wording very often. Here is the c&p for everyone to read. THE THURSDAY FORECAST DEPENDS MUCH UPON WHAT HAPPENS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...AS CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SURROUNDINGS AREAS. IF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS REMAINS RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED BY THIS AM CONVECTION...WE FACE A POTENTIALLY VOLATILE SITUATION THU AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE OUTLANDISH FOR OUR AREA...WITH CAPE IN SOME NAM SOUNDINGS EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH PROFILES ARE GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL/ VEERED...SHEAR IS MORE THAN RESPECTABLE...ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY JUNE...WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 35 KTS...AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS. GIVEN FORECAST DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000...INTENSE CONVECTION COULD ORGANIZE ALONG STRONG COLD POOLS...RESULTING IN A POSSIBLE HIGH END DOWNBURST THREAT...WHILE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG IN THE -10C TO -30C LAYER WOULD ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. FAIRLY LONG/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WITHIN HIGH/EXTREME CAPE ENVIRONMENT WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE/SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT POSSIBLE WITH ANY CELL DEVIATING STRONGLY FROM THE MEAN FLOW. AGAIN...ALL POSSIBLE ONLY IF MORNING CONVECTION DOESN/T STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 HWO for RAH this morning.. 612 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH DAMAGINGWIND GUSTS AND HAIL...MAINLY BETWEEN 1 PM AND 6 PM.THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG TOLOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BETWEEN10 PM AND 3 AM. SOME WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WELL AHEAD...OR IN THEABSENCE...OF RAIN AND THUNDER..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOONAND EVENING...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Does not look like a good severe setup to me. Hopefully, we can get some legitimate thunder at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 Does not look like a good severe setup to me. Hopefully, we can get some legitimate thunder at least. Really depends on timing and how much of the MCS that fires NW of here today gets in here and leave trash around to kill instability.....SPC dropped all slight risk for the SE so they must think we don't get a lot of sun tomorrow to juice it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Gardner on WRAL completely changed her tune from yesterday. Said there doesn't look to be a severe threat now for Thursday, and didn't mention anything about severe today, just widely scattered storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Looks like the main threat today is in Kentucky. I guess that would be followed in the TN Valley forum and the Ohio Valley forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Does not look like a good severe setup to me. Hopefully, we can get some legitimate thunder at least. I'd settle for some legitimate rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 I'd settle for some legitimate rain. Aint that the truth. At least my weeds have grown at a slower pace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Looks like we have some storms moving in now, but nothing severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 341 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2014The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... southwestern Granville County in central North Carolina... central Wake County in central North Carolina... southwestern Franklin County in central North Carolina... southern Durham County in central North Carolina...* until 430 PM EDT* at 341 PM EDT...Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 58 mph. This storm was located near Durham...and moving southeast at 25 mph.* Locations impacted include... Raleigh...Durham...Cary...Creedmoor...Wake Forest...Garner... Butner...rdu international...Morrisville...Knightdale... Rolesville...Youngsville...Bethesda...Parkwood...and Falls Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 That little cluster missed us wide right - again. Not even a temperature drop with the outflow. KJNX peaked at 91° a few minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Apoarantly, this Doritos , or derecho that is currently in KY, is going to make a hard right and roll down the spine of the apps , and hold together into my neck of the woods around 12-2 am. I may stay up to watch if it looks like it's holding together!? Should pack a wallop, according to models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Tornado Watch for WNC: THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OFWESTERN NORTH CAROLINAEASTERN TENNESSEEWEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIASOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 800 PMUNTIL 300 AM EDT.* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLESCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLEISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLETHE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTEMILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF WHITESULPHUR SPRINGS WEST VIRGINIA TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOTSPRINGS NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCHSEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FORTORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCHAREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FORTHREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTSAND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.&&OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 218...WW 219...WW220...WW 221...DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TOPERSIST ALONG THE W SLOPES OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH LATEEVE...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLY MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD INTO WRNAND SW VA AS MID-LVL SPEED MAX AND ASSOCIATED UVV FIELD OVERSPREADMOIST/CONFLUENT LOW--LVL FLOW.AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAILSURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACEWIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30030. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Derecho dud! Anything involving rain seems to find away to avoid my area! There is no line even close to heading this way, it's split into all of TN, and north to VA, with a big gap inbetween and headed right for me! I don't know what these models look at, but they are wrong about 80% of the time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 I really hope you didn't think this would ever be a derecho. And don't say that "d word" any more or the media/public will get a hold of it again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 5, 2014 Author Share Posted June 5, 2014 Looks high cape low shear here in eastern NC so any storms should be pulsey and that generally isnt good for any real severe threat, still might see a few nasty cells early when they first fire up if we can clear out for 3-4 hrs around lunchtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 5, 2014 Author Share Posted June 5, 2014 Well not much in the way of cloud cover perhaps a return to a slight risk is in order for central and eastern NC......its muggy and lots of midday sun should put us in the highest cape values we have seen so far and with decent lapse rates even the not so great shear should be enough to see some action especially 12-5ish as those storms will have the most to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Yeah, it all depends on if we get some clouds and/or rain before the afternoon to keep things from firing up. Right now it is sunny and really muggy, so we might have some decent boomers this afternoon if it stays this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 5, 2014 Author Share Posted June 5, 2014 LI -4 already and cape is already building and the mid level lapse rates are high for here this time of the year so if we can keep a lot of crud from firing late morning and trashing it up we might see some pretty decent storms especially Fayetteville and up and east of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Matthew East 7 mins ·11:30am: It's been flip-flopping, but the latest RPM keeps a lot of central NC pretty quiet today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 5, 2014 Author Share Posted June 5, 2014 Cells firing around Raleigh and the instability is pretty high so we should see these spread the best chance to get any real severe stuff will be the next 3-4 hrs during peak heating when a storm has the most to work with and even then its going to be pulse type storms I bet with the shear so weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Mesoscale discussion for eastern nc, 60% prob of a watch and also the slight risk was extended into the area as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Clouds are starting to build. No rain or clouds this morning, so we might have a chance of seeing some storms this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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