downeastnc Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Figure as we look to warm up ( hopefully ) we need a thread to discus mid to long range severe threats as they begin to show up. We can use event specific threads to handle events once we get to within a day or so of the event. Its actually been a fairly active year so far in most places in the SE after a pretty quiet couple of years following the insanity that was 2011.So anyone want to guess when the first Mod and High risk in the SE will be.....outside of the more traditional Dixie Alley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Long, long range GFS shows a pretty interesting pattern 3/22 - 3/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Chance of severe weather in NC and VA tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 27, 2014 Author Share Posted March 27, 2014 Saturday getting more interesting DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2014 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT UPPER FLOW WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS SATURDAY TO THE EAST OF AN INLAND-DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...A NEUTRAL-TILT UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT ON SATURDAY FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS BY EARLY SUNDAY. ISOLATED/DIURNALLY-ENHANCED TSTMS WILL EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN STATES...WHILE TSTMS /INCLUDING SOME SEVERE RISK/ ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ...SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS... AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT...SCATTERED/POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS CORRIDORS OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS A BROAD PART OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE PREVALENCE OF EARLY DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO HINDER APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION...FURTHER COMPOUNDED BY THE EXPECTED WEAKNESS OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP THE WARM SECTOR. REGARDLESS...THE OVERALL SCENARIO/SOME HEATING MAY HELP SUSTAIN EARLY DAY STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FL/GA...WHILE A MODEST AFTERNOON UPSWING IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSITY COULD OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS/FAR SOUTHEAST VA. LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Tornado warnings in the midwest now. Some live streaming from Kansas City. http://livewire.kmbc.com/Event/Live_severe_weather_updates_from_KMBC_9_News Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Tornado warnings in the midwest now. Some live streaming from Kansas City. http://livewire.kmbc.com/Event/Live_severe_weather_updates_from_KMBC_9_News Thanks Brick. They got the copter up and that cell to the south is really strengthening quickly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 This season may not be the train wreck some were talking about. All this -AO/NAO talk was premature cliff diving. It's still just March! The active storm track is notable. Winter storms turn into spring storms. Now I agree the Plains may have an off season, but this is the South. Mid South is probably favored. Track is not really into the Deep South, and the cool Northeast may have impacts east of the Apps. First high risk may be the Mid South, hopefully not into the Tennessee Valley. I love storm chasing, but don't like it near my family. Perhaps selfish, but at least I'm honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 28, 2014 Author Share Posted March 28, 2014 This season may not be the train wreck some were talking about. All this -AO/NAO talk was premature cliff diving. It's still just March! The active storm track is notable. Winter storms turn into spring storms. Now I agree the Plains may have an off season, but this is the South. Mid South is probably favored. Track is not really into the Deep South, and the cool Northeast may have impacts east of the Apps. First high risk may be the Mid South, hopefully not into the Tennessee Valley. I love storm chasing, but don't like it near my family. Perhaps selfish, but at least I'm honest. I am a wind junkie, I could live without snow but not storms and to me the best time of the year is now until the end of hurricane season. Obviously IMBY is not where I hope to run into it but I had a EF1 miss the house by 300 yrds March 27th 209 and then way back when I was 12 ( on this date march 28th ) in 1984 the F4 monster and strongest tornado of that entire outbreak missed my house by a little over a mile. the debris was raining down and we had winds well into the hurricane force range..and that was with it missing us by a mile. I saw first hand what that kind of tornado can do as we where involved with the cleanup effort and we had family that was hit by it luckily they all survived. I am not to up on tomorrow looks like a lot of trash etc and typically here we need good sun to really juice it up but I am not working so if anything organized and close does form I will try to get somewhere to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 I am a wind junkie, I could live without snow but not storms and to me the best time of the year is now until the end of hurricane season.You are just like me! Same here buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Guess we have to keep an eye out for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Update from RAH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 This season may not be the train wreck some were talking about. All this -AO/NAO talk was premature cliff diving. It's still just March! The active storm track is notable. Winter storms turn into spring storms. Now I agree the Plains may have an off season, but this is the South. Mid South is probably favored. Track is not really into the Deep South, and the cool Northeast may have impacts east of the Apps. First high risk may be the Mid South, hopefully not into the Tennessee Valley. I love storm chasing, but don't like it near my family. Perhaps selfish, but at least I'm honest. IF the great CAD of the winter were to maintain itself this spring, I would guess that the spring severe season in at least CAD favored areas of NC/SC/GA would be quieter than average. That would be good news for those who'd rather have it quiet overall. We'll see. Let's first see if the great CAD will continue with high frequency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crapper Jim Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 GSP AFD Greenville SATURDAY...THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES BECOME VERY INTERESTING...BECOMINGSIMILAR TO THE CLASSIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ATH5...A TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE MIDDLE CONUS...CLOSING OFF OVER KYDURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED SUB-TROPICAL JET TRACKS SW TONE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...ACROSS THE MIDLANDS OF SC. A SIGNIFICANTLLVL JET CUTS S TO NW ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR BY 18Z. AT THESFC...THE LOW CENTER WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM EASTERN TN ACROSS THEMIDDLE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT WILL SWEEP EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST HOURS DURING THEAFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT MID DAY 0-1 KM HELICITYWILL RANGE AROUND 250 M2/S2. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THATWIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND ISENTROPIC FORCED RAIN WILL EXIST ACROSSTHE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING. THE MORNING CONDITIONS WILLLIMIT HEATING...POSSIBLY REACHING THE MID 60S TO L70S. FORECASTSOUNDINGS INDICATE 0-3 KM SHERB AND EHI WILL REMAIN AROUND 0.75.THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHRA WITH EMBEDDEDTSRA...WITH SVR TSRA POSSIBLE EAST OF THE MTNS. WE WILL CONTINUE TOHIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. IF...FOR SOME REASON...CLOUD COVER THINS ANDTEMPERATURES SURGE WARMER...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL QUICKLY BECOMESUITABLE TO SUPERCELLS...WITH ISO TORNADOES...MULTIPLE WIND DAMAGEEVENTS AND LARGE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 GSP AFD Greenville SATURDAY...THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES BECOME VERY INTERESTING...BECOMING SIMILAR TO THE CLASSIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AT H5...A TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE MIDDLE CONUS...CLOSING OFF OVER KY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED SUB-TROPICAL JET TRACKS SW TO NE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...ACROSS THE MIDLANDS OF SC. A SIGNIFICANT LLVL JET CUTS S TO NW ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR BY 18Z. AT THE SFC...THE LOW CENTER WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM EASTERN TN ACROSS THE MIDDLE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT MID DAY 0-1 KM HELICITY WILL RANGE AROUND 250 M2/S2. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND ISENTROPIC FORCED RAIN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING. THE MORNING CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT HEATING...POSSIBLY REACHING THE MID 60S TO L70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 0-3 KM SHERB AND EHI WILL REMAIN AROUND 0.75. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA...WITH SVR TSRA POSSIBLE EAST OF THE MTNS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. IF...FOR SOME REASON...CLOUD COVER THINS AND TEMPERATURES SURGE WARMER...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL QUICKLY BECOME SUITABLE TO SUPERCELLS...WITH ISO TORNADOES...MULTIPLE WIND DAMAGE EVENTS AND LARGE HAIL. Looks like tomorrow is going down the crapper!I think the clouds will hang on in the damming areas and tstorms will be at a minimum in the western Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crapper Jim Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Looks like tomorrow is going down the crapper! I think the clouds will hang on in the damming areas and tstorms will be at a minimum in the western Carolinas Hence... "If for some reason." Why would a forecaster say that? But, "You never know." BTW- Had about .0185" of rain today... best guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Well, the severe weather season isn't getting off to a promising start for us. Slight risk already gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Well, the severe weather season isn't getting off to a promising start for us. Slight risk already gone.They might as well take us out the slight risk as well. No way we will see severe weather with this weakening batch of showers.Edit: Yep SPC just took us out the slight risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 They might as well take us out the slight risk as well. No way we will see severe weather with this weakening batch of showers. Edit: Yep SPC just took us out the slight risk. Yeah, not looking good for storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Latest HWO doesn't rule them out, though... 1022 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THEREGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING EASTACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ANYSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGINGWINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 3 PM AND MIDNIGHT..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY STILL BE NEEDED LATER TODAY. SPOTTERS AREENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM THESTORM PREDICTION CENTER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 29, 2014 Author Share Posted March 29, 2014 Much to my surprise there is a area of storms firing up and moving NE south of RDU one of them is even warned......getting late though so we shall see how long they hold up..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0228 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0631 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NC...FAR NERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 292331Z - 300130Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...A BRIEF WINDOW APPEARS TO EXIST FOR A WEAK TORNADO OR TWO MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL NC. DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED FROM NEAR FLORENCE SC NEWD INTO S CNTRL NC...WHERE SURFACE MAP SHOWS PRESSURE FALLS AND LIGHT BUT SELY SURFACE WINDS. THESE STORMS ARE FORMING AHEAD OF THE UPPER VORT MAX AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ABOUT 2 HOURS OR SO. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE DONE A RATHER GOOD JOB AT FORECASTING THIS CLUSTER OF CELLS...WHICH THEY HAVE DISSIPATING BY AROUND 02Z OVER N CNTRL NC. GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY...COOL BOUNDARY LAYER AND GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND OR HAIL IS LIKELY MINIMAL. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL VORTICITY AND FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...AS WELL AS 0-1 SRH VALUES AROUND 100 M2/S2 SUGGEST BRIEF AND LIKELY WEAK TORNADOES COULD OCCUR IF SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAN PERSIST. RADAR HAS SHOWN LOOSE CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS RECENTLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 29, 2014 Author Share Posted March 29, 2014 Warned cell getting nasty and even rotating a bit south of Triangle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 29, 2014 Author Share Posted March 29, 2014 Lillington could be about to get hit pretty hard, they might be close to throwing a tornado warning on that cell.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 I am a little surprised this is happening now. I thought the rain and clouds today kept the instability down. Watching WRAL now to see if they break in programing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 29, 2014 Author Share Posted March 29, 2014 Yeah thought we were in the clear with it rainy all day but that one storm is a nasty one for sure and it really does look like its tightening up the rotation some...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 WRAL Mike Maze54 seconds ago Lightning is suddenly ramping up over Central Harnett County....getting loud around Lillington! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 30, 2014 Author Share Posted March 30, 2014 Solak you look in line for a good one if it holds up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 805 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014 TORNADO WATCH 44 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NCC015-017-037-047-051-061-063-065-069-077-079-083-085-091-093- 101-105-107-117-127-131-135-145-147-155-163-165-181-183-185-191- 195-300500- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0044.140330T0005Z-140330T0500Z/ NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERTIE BLADEN CHATHAM COLUMBUS CUMBERLAND DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HOKE JOHNSTON LEE LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ORANGE PERSON PITT ROBESON SAMPSON SCOTLAND VANCE WAKE WARREN WAYNE WILSON SCC033-069-300500- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0044.140330T0005Z-140330T0500Z/ SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DILLON MARLBORO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 They pulled the trigger. Wow, really thought we were in the clear after not having anything all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 WRAL Mike Maze 44 secs · Cell near Lillington showing signs of weak rotation....this is one to watch...moving northeast at 45mph... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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