RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Ugh, another slop fest. I was really thinking we could managed snow or sleet for those of us north of I-70 based on yesterdays 12z runs. Its already pretty warm out there relative to the last couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Regardless of P type, I'd be very wary of black ice on any paved surface. Even if the air is above freezing, as cold as it's been this past week, the ground isn't going to warm up very fast at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Yeah, this has become a non-event down here. As of now it may be a while before we even get another snow chance. At least we had one week of winter, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Well, I wish I would have been wrong on this one, but like I said, these things almost always trend warmer as we get closer. Warmer air just seems to eventually win out. The infamous WTOD doesn't get stopped too often. Looks like another slopfest for us. Even initially, it was looking like at least some slop for us folks south of Pittsburgh. Now, it looks like complete slop. Like Digger mentioned, even when temps get above freezing, the air on the ground can still be colder. I've seen mornings, well above freezing, where pavement is still ice for a while. So, travel may be tricky anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Yeah, this has become a non-event down here. As of now it may be a while before we even get another snow chance. At least we had one week of winter, eh? Yeah, I think that makes this sting a bit worse. We've had maybe a 2 week period of wintry weather, and now after this storm the rest of the week is seasonal, but probably dry unless something sneaks up on us. Then, we go into what will likely be a 3-5 day above normal temperature regime and that is assuming the models are getting the pattern change back to colder right. Closing in on 40 degrees in a lot of areas now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Well I hit 40 today. Sun was out most of the day. Night time isn't going to drop much so that should have helped ground a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Well I hit 40 today. Sun was out most of the day. Night time isn't going to drop much so that should have helped ground a bit. Where do you live at? I got up to 37 myself, but I didn't see any sun all day. Neither did the airports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 How is the morning commute looking? I have been at work all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Where do you live at? I got up to 37 myself, but I didn't see any sun all day. Neither did the airports. Eastern most of the PBZ area. Just south of Laurel Mountain going up 711. I got 40 at 2Pm and it was sunny. Clouds since have moved in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 How is the morning commute looking? I have been at work all day. Shouldn't be bad. I got court in Pittsburgh tomorrow. So got a commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I really don't know which way to lean on this storm. Any amount of zr is enough to cause serious issues so even if we only get say an hour or so of it conditions could be quite dangerous until the surface warms or is treated. I'd proceed with caution, but I fully expect we will probably be plain rain by rush hour but the damage may already be done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0032NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0750 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2015AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WV...CNTRL/NRN VA...WRN MD...AND FARSRN PACONCERNING...FREEZING RAINVALID 120150Z - 120745ZSUMMARY...LIGHT RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THEDISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 03Z...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLYMONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION RATES MAY APPROACH .02 IN/HR.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SFC OBS AS OF 01Z SHOW VERY DRY AIR REMAINS INPLACE ACROSS MUCH OF WV...CNTRL/NRN VA...WRN MD...AND FAR SRN PA.00Z SOUNDINGS FROM RNK AND IAD ALSO DEPICT A DRY LAYER OF AIRBETWEEN THE SFC AND 850 MB ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT SFC HIGHPRESSURE/WEDGE NOW RETREATING EWD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A LARGEAREA OF LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS WV AND CNTRL/NRN VA ISASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-SCALE LIFTING ATTENDANT TO A LOW-AMPLITUDESHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W. THIS PRECIPITATION WILLCONTINUE TO MOISTEN THE DRY NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. WITH TEMPERATURESGENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...AND DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS TOLOWER 20S...SFC WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE...AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW32 DEGREES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.RECENT REPORTS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA SUGGEST THAT EVEN WITH AIRTEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE FREEZING AS OF 01Z...PRECIPITATION ISBEGINNING TO FREEZE...WHICH IS LIKELY DUE TO COLD GROUNDTEMPERATURES. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AS THE LIGHT RAINCONTINUES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE AIR TEMPERATURE SHOULDCONTINUE TO COOL TO THE WET BULB TEMPERATURE...WHICH IS BELOWFREEZING. FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS MAY INITIALLY BE LIGHT/SHOWERYAS THE RESIDUAL DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...ASADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE S/SW AND THECOLUMN SATURATES...FREEZING RAIN RATES SHOULD EVENTUALLYINCREASE...AND MAY APPROACH .02 IN/HR FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT...GLEASON/PETERS.. 01/12/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Light snow falling here putting down a dusting. Temp is 35. I don't think we will see too much freezing rain. I would hope is stays snow but will probably turn to plain rain before turning back to snow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I've had light freezing rain from the start here. I don't think it has snowed at all and don't expect it to tonight. This is following the same pattern as so many of these types of storms before it. I went outside and there was a thin layer of ice on my sidewalk and in our parking lot. Morning commute may be tricky. Remember, a lot of surfaces will be colder than air temperature from the extended frigid temps we recently had. It's 34 here with the icy sidewalk and parking lot. So, watch for icy conditions in the morning in spots. North of Pittsburgh will obviously be worse than south of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Was just out letting dog out. Was kind of a rain, but did have some pallets mixed in. Patio wasn't very slick. I'm sure road crews have been out, what is bad is both Pittsburgh and Latrobe has been reporting rain last few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Pittsburgh has been reporting light freezing rain and snow the past few hours. That's the airport. I don't know what it's doing in the city itself. I'd be happy if this is all plain rain by the morning commute to make it less of a headache. If the snow is going to miss us again, may as well be rain instead of ice. I just talked to someone in Butler and they said the roads are bad there right now. Just depends on where you're at as always. Pittsburgh is usually the dividing line with these systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 34.5 Here. There was a layer of ice on my walk and driveway but it is mostly melting off as slush now. No problems. Latest Hrrr says we change to light snow around noon and pick up to an inch by late afternoon in some locations. Then it gets quiet for a while. I think we have had more freezing rain than snow so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Roads were in decent shape this morning, and when I checked around 4am I was sitting a 33 and plain rain. Looks like between the warm air and road crews most main roads were in good shape, and side streets were a crap-shoot but mainly passable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Pittsburgh has been reporting light freezing rain and snow the past few hours. That's the airport. I don't know what it's doing in the city itself. I'd be happy if this is all plain rain by the morning commute to make it less of a headache. If the snow is going to miss us again, may as well be rain instead of ice. I just talked to someone in Butler and they said the roads are bad there right now. Just depends on where you're at as always. Pittsburgh is usually the dividing line with these systems. I was looking at KAGC which hadn't reported Snow since 11PM last night http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KAGC.html Latrobe reported snow at midnight and has been rain since. http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KLBE.html Made it to Pittsburgh and roads weren't bad at all. North of 422 is reported to be pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 12, 2015 Author Share Posted January 12, 2015 Well I know he has a cold bias and busts often but JoeB is thinking we see another artic outbreak in a week. He mentions the AO and NAO finally trending negative. He also said that the EPO going positive is transient. Who knows what will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 My roads weren't good at all in BP....kids had a 2 hr delay....cars sliding down my street at 7:30 this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 My roads weren't good at all in BP....kids had a 2 hr delay....cars sliding down my street at 7:30 this morning... Yep. BP roads this am were by far the worst from everywhere I traveled on my way to work in Robinson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Someone should create a new Pittsburgh thread since this one is well over 1,000 posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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