north pgh Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Picked up a solid 2 inches overnight. Snow and wind has picked up. These squalls moving in look to be our heaviest of the year. Would love to get a crack of lightning and thunder with the squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Just checked radar and those do look to mean business. I hope they hold together. I wasn't expecting much after things died down this morning. NWS has a special weather statement: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA745 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2015OHZ040-041-049-050-058-059-PAZ007-008-013>016-020>023-029-031-073-WVZ001>004-091345-ALLEGHENY PA-ARMSTRONG PA-BEAVER PA-BELMONT OH-BROOKE WV-BUTLER PA-CARROLL OH-CLARION PA-COLUMBIANA OH-GREENE PA-GUERNSEY OH-HANCOCK WV-HARRISON OH-INDIANA PA-JEFFERSON PA-JEFFERSON OH-LAWRENCE PA-MARSHALL WV-MERCER PA-OHIO WV-VENANGO PA-WASHINGTON PA-WESTMORELAND PA-745 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2015...BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS WILL AFFECT THE AREA...AT 745 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN PITTSBURGHSHOWED SCATTERED SNOW SQUALLS ALONG A LINE FROM CLINTONVILLE TOLEETONIA TO LONDONDERRY...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.THESE SNOW SQUALLS WILL RAPIDLY DROP VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN AQUARTER OF A MILE AND QUICKLY COAT UNTREATED ROADS. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TAPPAN... PIEDMONT... MILLPORT... MECHANICSTOWN... LONDONDERRY... GUILFORD LAKE STATE PARK... CLENDENING... AUGUSTA... CLINTONVILLE... CARROLLTON... SCIO... FREEPORT... PITTSBURGH...PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGHFACEBOOK PAGE OR BY USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.LAT...LON 4040 7997 4001 8021 4004 8141 4094 8088 4091 8053 4104 8052 4121 7988 4101 7886 Picked up a solid 2 inches overnight. Snow and wind has picked up. These squalls moving in look to be our heaviest of the year. Would love to get a crack of lightning and thunder with the squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 First squall is about to hit me. I will give an update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The one thing I see that favors a more frozen outcome is that 1040+ high pressing in from the plains. Lots of other details in the mix though. I agree, I'd take a foot of snow over ice, but if an ice storm is incoming I'll probably still track it. We'll have a stale air mass by Monday so it looks like a marginal event. I guess there's a chance for a serious ice storm, but I don't think anyone wants that. I'll take two feet of snow to an inch of ice anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 Outside shoveling and the squall comes roaring through and negated all the work I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Outside shoveling and the squall comes roaring through and negated all the work I did. Yep this squall affected just about everybody. Had heavy snow 30 mph winds and for about 10-15 minutes. Picked up another solid 1/2 inch or so. Hard to tell with the winds. I'm about to get hit with a smaller one and then another behind it moving through Beaver County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 Things might be looking up if you like snow. With these squalls and now more snow next week. We may finally be in the heart of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 Round 2 glad I don't have work till one. Snowing pretty good out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 After watching this latest event from last night and this morning I would have to say that the Canadian kicked GFS @$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 After watching this latest event from last night and this morning I would have to say that the Canadian kicked GFS @$$ Well if thats the case then this looks ominous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Well if thats the case then this looks ominous. Yes but according to this model we won't see much snow but lot's of ice. I hope we can shift this about 100 miles south. I can't take freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 Yes but according to this model we won't see much snow but lot's of ice. I hope we can shift this about 100 miles south. I can't take freezing rain. Oh I know thats why I posted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Sweet picture from @DaveDicillo of today's snow squall in downtown Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Yes but according to this model we won't see much snow but lot's of ice. I hope we can shift this about 100 miles south. I can't take freezing rain. 18Z Nam has come south and gives us more snow and less ice. Let's hope the trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Strongly positive NAO/AO; I don't see a 50/50 low or even a high pressure to lock it down. Probably lucky we aren't getting a lakes cutter in this environment. Unfortunately that could mean a nasty ice storm, which I'd really like to punt. Rather just have rain, believe it or not, if it can't snow. Newest GFS looks pretty flat @ 48 hours. Decent moisture coming out of the south. High retreating off the East coast. Overall I don't see many positive signals for a snowstorm, at least not for us south of the city. Those from city points north will likely be okay for snow, but it won't be a significant storm with this look. NAM looks very similar overall. I don't have access to Euro/PGFS/UK, so someone else can hopefully chime in with what they see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 On my coffee break and did some model research and just reading what people are saying about this storm. Trends are not looking good. Euro still has a good hit But we have seen this all too many times. We always are radar watching waiting for the freezing line to drop south of us. Hopefully this trends colder and we don't see an ice storm. I can drive in 3-5 inches of snow but .1-.25 inches of ice will paralyze commuters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 000FXUS61 KPBZ 092319 AAAAFDPBZAREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA619 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015.SYNOPSIS...BITTER COLD THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MODERATE SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEMWILL BRING SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...620PM UPDATE...OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE MODEST CHANGESTO OVERNIGHT POPS AND INCLUDE MENTION OF FLURRIES OUTSIDE OFFORECASTED SNOW SHOWER AREAS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN MODIFIED WITH LATESTGUIDANCE.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WANE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MOREWESTERLY AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES EAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TOFALL OFF AND WILL REACH BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.WINDS STILL LOOK TO STAY ELEVATED AND WIND CHILLS NEAR -20 LOOKREASONABLE. TIMING OF WIND CHILL ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH NOCHANGES. CORE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST DURING THEDAY SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO RECOVER IN THEAFTERNOON INTO THE TEENS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING.&&.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ALLOWING FORONLY A SLIGHT FALL OFF IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THESINGLE DIGITS...AND MAY BEGIN TO RISE LATE. WARMING TRENDCONTINUES SUNDAY ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A BIT BELOWAVERAGE. CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AHEAD OF SOUTHERNSTREAM TROUGH AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE TOWARD THE LOWEROHIO VALLEY MONDAY. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS PRECIPTO START A BIT EARLIER WITH SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX LIKELY AFTERMIDNIGHT WEST OF I-79 AND QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH AND EAST.FORECAST STORM TRACK AND TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL LIKELY CHANGEQUITE A LOT BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY SO FOR NOW HAVE A WINTRY MIX UPTO LATROBE-PITTSBURGH-COSHOCTON LINE WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH. APPEARSTO BE AN ADVISORY TYPE EVENT FOR MIXED PRECIP AND ICINGSOUTH...AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NORTH.&&.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSUREBUILDS IN TUESDAY. THE SOUTHERN STREAM TRIES TO REASSERT ITSELFDURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THEROCKIES TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARESTILL UNSETTLED...ALTHOUGH THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A DECENT CHANCEOF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION TOWARDS THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAYTIME PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE MAY THEN TRY TO RETURN ON FRIDAY.TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.&&.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...STLT/CU RULE/MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VFR TO OCNL MVFR CIGS WITH SCTSNW SHWRS CONTG THRU THIS AFTN UNDER BROAD UPR TROFG. ALL VFR ISEXPD BY THIS EVE. CLDS SHOULD CLR OUT TNGT FM SW-NE UNDER BLDGHIGH PRES...WHICH IS EXPD TO LAST THRU SAT. GUSTY WSW WNDS WL CONTUNTIL DMNSHG THIS EVE.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...RSTRNS ARE EXPD SUN NGT AND MON WITH ADVNG LOW PRES.&&.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.&&$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 It wouldn't surprise me if Monday's threat trends warmer and warmer as it we get closer. That's what has typically happened to us over the years with storms like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA916 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2015.SYNOPSIS...BITTER COLD THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MODERATE SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEMWILL BRING SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONBELOW.MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO HOLD SWAY OVER THE FORECAST AREATHIS MORNING AS A ROUGHLY 1038 MB SURFACE HIGH MOVES FROM THECENTRAL OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGHTHE DAY. WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN AND LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TOBE JUST A BIT SOUTH OF DUE WEST...THIS SHOULD KEEP VERY DRY AIROVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINESHOULD RESULT. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SUN...TEMPERATURES SHOULDMANAGE TO ACHIEVE MORE UPWARD MOBILITY THAN GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGESTTODAY. AS SUCH...WHILE MODEL OUTPUT WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREADSINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS...A COMBINATION OF A BIT OF BOUNDARY LAYERMIXING AND INSOLATION SHOULD ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS AT LEAST SOUTHOF I-80 TO ACHIEVE HIGHS IN THE TEENS.AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTOSUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WARM ADVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE.THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A FLOOR UNDERNEATH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ASWELL AS ALLOW FOR FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WARMING ON SUNDAY INSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE. HOWEVER...ASDEEPER MOISTURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...THECONTINUED EFFECTS OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN PORTRAYED ON TIMEHEIGHT SECTIONS FROM THE ENTIRETY OF GUIDANCE WOULD POINT TOWARDLIGHT SNOW BEING THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE AT LEAST AT THE ONSET OFPRECIPITATION IN OHIO BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO WET BULBCOOLING. FRIES&&.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...A BROAD UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT INTOMON WILL BRING PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA. INTERACTION BETWEENTHE NRN STREAM SYSTEM AND ANOTHER WEAK LOW NEAR TEXAS WILL ALLOW FORCOPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE TO STREAM IN FOLLOWING THE 850MBFLOW SUNDAY NIGHT. AS RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SRLY FLOW ENTERS OURFORECAST AREA A SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES.SLIGHT OVERRUNNING OF MID-LEVEL WARM AIR WILL RESULT IN AT LEASTSOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES THROUGH OUR SRN ZONES.DETERMINING THE EXTENT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND TIMING THE ARRIVALOF THE COLD AIR FROM THE NW WILL BE VITAL IN FORECASTING THERESULTANT PTYPES. ATTM THE 850MB WAA FIGURES TO BRING A WARM NOSEINTO SE OH...NRN WV...EXTREME SWPA AND MARYLAND. DIRECT OUTPUT FROMTHE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SEEM A BIT BULLISH ON FREEZING RAINPOTENTIAL GIVEN THE FORECAST SOUNDING DATA AND MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURETRENDS. IN THE LATEST MODEL SUITE MANY LOCATIONS NEAR PGH SHOW ONLYA MODEST 1-2KFT WARM LAYER ABOUT 5KFT ABOVE THE SFC EARLY MONMORNING. THIS LAYER IS DEEPER ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES...EVEN INCLUDINGRAIN SOUNDINGS IN OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NORTH AND WEST OF PGH THESOUNDINGS TEND TO FAVOR PREDOMINANTLY SNOW OR A SNOW/SLEET MIX FOR AFEW HOURS. CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE WERE TO INCLUDE MORE SLEETACROSS THE BROAD RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION LINE THAT WILL DIVIDE OURFORECAST AREA AND INCLUDE LESS FREEZING RAIN OVERALL. A LOOK AT THEPAST THREE NAM RUNS SHOWS A TREND TOWARD COLDER MID-LEVELS WITH EACHSUBSEQUENT RUN.IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...THE SYSTEM IN GENERAL IS WEAKLYFORCED BUT MODEST LIFT ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE MON MORNING WITHISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOULD RESULT IN A BAND OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHERN OH AND WRN PA. TIMING AND LOCATION COULD MEAN SNOW FOR THEMONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WITH SLEET MIXING IN SOUTH OF PGH. OVERALLSNOW FORECAST HASNT CHANGED MUCH IN THIS UPDATE...STILL LOOKING AT2-3" FOR NRN ZONES...1-3" FROM I-80 SOUTH TO THE MASON-DIXON LINEAND AROUND AND INCH SOUTH OF THAT POINT. ICE TOTALS HAVE BEEN CUTBACK WITH THE FORECAST CALLING FOR MORE SLEET THAN FZRA.TAX&&.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM WILL MEANDIMINISHING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID-WEEK. A STRONG1040MB SFC HIGH WILL SETTLE IN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREAKEEPING THE SRLY MOISTURE FEED AT BAY. A WEAK SYSTEM TRIES TO SKIRTOUR SRN PERIPHERY TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS...BUT WILL LARGELY REMAIN OUTOF THE AREA. WEDS NIGHT A STRONGER LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EASTOUT OF THE TN VALLEY. THIS LOW LOOKS TO TRANSITION TO A COASTALSYSTEM DAY 6 WITH MINIMAL IMPACT TO OUR FORECAST AREA.TAX&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Nam. Come south. Lada la la. ,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 It wouldn't surprise me if Monday's threat trends warmer and warmer as it we get closer. That's what has typically happened to us over the years with storms like this. Normally I would agree with this idea, but this one may be different. Usually we have a high much further east that favors cad east of the apps and our cold gets scoured out. This time we have a high building in from the west which I think would favor us rather than the usual cad areas. NWS notes the NAM has been getting colder with each run and lessened the ice potential in favor of sleet. IN THE LATEST MODEL SUITE MANY LOCATIONS NEAR PGH SHOW ONLY A MODEST 1-2KFT WARM LAYER ABOUT 5KFT ABOVE THE SFC EARLY MON MORNING. THIS LAYER IS DEEPER ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES...EVEN INCLUDING RAIN SOUNDINGS IN OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NORTH AND WEST OF PGH THE SOUNDINGS TEND TO FAVOR PREDOMINANTLY SNOW OR A SNOW/SLEET MIX FOR A FEW HOURS. CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE WERE TO INCLUDE MORE SLEET ACROSS THE BROAD RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION LINE THAT WILL DIVIDE OUR FORECAST AREA AND INCLUDE LESS FREEZING RAIN OVERALL. A LOOK AT THE PAST THREE NAM RUNS SHOWS A TREND TOWARD COLDER MID-LEVELS WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT RUN. That being said, given past precedence, cautious optimism for another advisory event featuring more snow and sleet than zr or plain rain should be the extent of ones expectations until we get closer. I'd like to see that band of snow on the NAM trend further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 Ehhh I am not excited about this event. Euro went alittle north and weaker. I don't want ice, you can't drive on ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Yippee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Per Canadian the mix-snow line goes right through Allegheny County. 3 inches north and 1 inch South. Now let's move this thing another 50 miles south so we can all get a nice 2-4. Not a major storm but I'm not gonna complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 Short range models arent looking too good. I am usually positive when it comes to these things because I like snow but I just don't see this trending colder. Euro trended away from it and so did the other models. WRF and High rez NAM don't look too good and neither does the HRR. It is gonna be a case of the typical WTOD winning the battle. I hope Thunderhead can speak about this because he obviously knows more about this than a lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 GFS shows this This is looking like a terrible situation. Hopefully 00z models change this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 All rain now??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 The winter that never snowed . There is always febuaray for our fabled apps runner that gives us our first 6+ storm in 1+ years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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