Mailman Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 As always, a detailed forecast from Mr. Fries... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/......FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER TO DROP QUICK ACCUMULATING SNOWSTHROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH CANADIAN ORIGINS WILL QUICKLY SLIDE INTOTHE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTICSTATES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS ONTHE LARGE SCALE LIFT PORTION OF THIS SYSTEMS TRAVERSING OF THEAREA...WHICH GENERALLY PAINTS ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF LIQUIDEQUIVALENT ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR.THIS FOLLOWS NICELY ALONG THE BEST AXIS OF LOW LEVEL DEFORMATIONALONG AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.ADDITIONALLY...THIS DEFORMATION COMBINED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTIONAND THE UPWARD BRAND OF SOME MODEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE850-700 MB LAYER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM CO-LOCATE THE BEST FORCINGWITH THE BEST SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OF ROUGHLY-12 TO -18C ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAYMORNING. BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS BOTHREVEAL THIS TO BE THE CASE FROM THE NAM AND GFS...THOUGH THE GFSDOES SEEM TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING A COHERENTFRONTOGENETICAL MAXIMA AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA. WITHLITTLE SYNOPTIC REASON TO BELIEVE SAID MAXIMA WOULD JUSTMIRACULOUSLY DISSIPATE...A MORE CONTINUOUS VIEW IN CARRYINGSIMILAR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA SEEMS TO BETHE MOST PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO...WHICH JIVES WELL WITH THE LOWERLEVEL FIELDS OF THE NAM AND SREF FAIRLY WELL. THIS YIELDS SNOW TOLIQUID RATIOS ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HALFOF THE RIDGES OF AROUND 20 TO 1 THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.THIS SEEMS TO BE A FAIRLY EFFICIENT SNOW...SO THEREFORE A SWATH OF3 TO 5 INCHES SEEMS LIKELY IN THIS AREA SIMPLY FROM THE SYSTEMITSELF.FARTHER NORTH...COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN BETTER ENTRENCHED. AS ARESULT...WITH A SIMILAR LIFTING PROFILE...THE BEST LIFT SEEMSPOISED TO BE ACTUALLY ABOVE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND MOREIN THE -20 TO -30C LAYER. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A FAR LESSEFFICIENT SNOWFALL. AS SUCH...FROM GENERALLY PITTSBURGHNORTHWARD...SNOW EXPECTATIONS WERE TEMPERED...HOWEVER THE TIMINGOF THE SNOW STILL SEEMS QUITE PROBLEMATIC ENOUGH AROUND THEMORNING RUSH THAT CONTINUING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SEEMS THEBEST TACT FOR THE METRO AREA.AFTER THE MAIN LARGE SCALE LIFT EXITS STAGE RIGHT ON TUESDAYMORNING...THERMAL FIELDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO FEATURE A MUCH MOREUNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS COUPLED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ANDA CRASHING DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TOWARD THE RIDGE TOPS WILL LIKELYLEAD TO A PERIOD OF ENHANCED UPSLOPE SNOWS FOR THE HIGHERTERRAIN...ESPECIALLY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THESATURATED LAYER SHOULD BE SHRINKING TOWARD THE SURFACE...THIS SEEMSLIKELY TO BE OFFSET BY BETTER ICE MICROPHYSICS AND A MOREEFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH HABIT. AS SUCH...UPSLOPE SNOWS IN THE RIDGESWILL LIKELY YIELD SEVERAL MORE INCHES ONTO THE SNOWFALL FROM THESYSTEM ITSELF. AS A RESULT...TOTAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTATIONS FORTHE HIGHER TERRAIN WERE INCREASED...PARTICULARLY IN TUCKERCOUNTY...WHERE THE BEST LARGE SCALE SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY MORNINGWILL DIRECTLY OVERLAY A MAXIMUM IN UPSLOPE POTENTIAL. FOR TUCKERCOUNTY...THE ADVISORY WAS UPGRADED TO WARNING...WHILE FOR ALLOTHER RIDGE AREAS...ACCUMULATIONS WERE INCREASED TO VERY HIGH ENDADVISORY CRITERIA. FRIES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Zone dropped my totals of 1-2 tonight and 2-3 tomorrow to 1" tonight and 1-2" tomorrow. Is that even WWA worthy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I was at 1-2 tonight and 1-2 tomorrow. Now, I'm at 1 tonight, and 1-2 tomorrow. You just never know with these clippers. Not much moisture with them, so you just hope they get here with enough moisture left to give us something decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Zone dropped my totals of 1-2 tonight and 2-3 tomorrow to 1" tonight and 1-2" tomorrow. Is that even WWA worthy? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 6, 2015 Author Share Posted January 6, 2015 Hows the lake effect set up looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 9:30pm Update: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Zone dropped my totals of 1-2 tonight and 2-3 tomorrow to 1" tonight and 1-2" tomorrow. Is that even WWA worthy? Better safe than sorry. All it takes is a little snow and ice to cause accidents, especially around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The good news is it looked like there was a lot of brine laid down on I-70 and I-79 in preparation for the snowfall so hopefully it won't be too treacherous in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Surprised to see they upped the totals down here. Guess the latest guidance has a juicier system? Radar is so-so, but it doesn't appear to be moving extremely fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Looking at the latest HRRR the snow starts around 2:00 am and the heaviest is between 3:00 and 6:00 am. Looks to be mostly done by 9:00 am. I am guessing we all see about 2 inches at the worst possible time for rush hour and we will see school delays. Then it will be over mid morning. Real quick start and end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 WTAE had most of the snow exiting by 8AM with a good batch between 4 and 6. If that is true will morning rush be that effected? There may be slick spots, but snow should start to taper off by A.M rush right? Looking at radar out west and some cams out near Cincy, roads are clear and radar isn't overly impressive right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Snowing fairly moderately despite very light radar returns. I really wish that some folks would just enjoy whatever little snow we might get rather than in every post tell us the storm is going to bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Snowing fairly moderately despite very light radar returns. I really wish that some folks would just enjoy whatever little snow we might get rather than in every post tell us the storm is going to bust. Good to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 When I left for work this morning, the roads were pretty bad around Bethel. Not a lot of snow, maybe 1.5" if I were to guess, but just hit at a bad time. Even a half inch can mess things up if it hits at rush hour and temps are just in the teens. Things seem to be getting a little better now since the snow has let up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 We're up to about 2.5" down here. I don't think we'll hit 3 before the snow shuts off, so pretty much what I expected. Schools closing at least down here because road conditions aren't improving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 6, 2015 Author Share Posted January 6, 2015 So about an inch and luckily it didn't affect my commute too much. From what I see, it looks like possible lake effect tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I ended up with about an inch in my back yard as well. Pretty much what I expected an on par with what the NWS had on the snow map. Still haven't had to touch a snow shovel though, it was so light and fluffy I just used a broom to quickly sweep the sidewalk off before heading to work. Roads were pretty slick, but passable with caution but did add about 20 minutes to my commute. So about an inch and luckily it didn't affect my commute too much. From what I see, it looks like possible lake effect tomorrow? As for the LES, looks like our best shot in awhile per NWS: .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE ARCTICFRONT. COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONTON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GOOD LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED EVENTIS SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A DUAL LAKE FETCH EXPECTEDWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. That should allow for some decent bands to setup, but its like spinning the roulette wheel whether or not you get stuck under one to pick up any more than an inch or so outside of the higher elevations. At least we have some snow on the ground for the arctic chill. Nothing worse than bare ground and bitter cold temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I said this last winter and will again. Everyone in pa should have to get have to get a mandatory inspection. It wasn't a lot of snow between 1.25 and 2" out here, but on my way from Ligonier to Greensburg I passed like 4 disabled vehicles and stopped for a car in a ditch by Kingston and the guys tires were bald. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I ended up with about an inch in my back yard as well. Pretty much what I expected an on par with what the NWS had on the snow map. Still haven't had to touch a snow shovel though, it was so light and fluffy I just used a broom to quickly sweep the sidewalk off before heading to work. Roads were pretty slick, but passable with caution but did add about 20 minutes to my commute. As for the LES, looks like our best shot in awhile per NWS: .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT. COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GOOD LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED EVENT IS SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A DUAL LAKE FETCH EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. That should allow for some decent bands to setup, but its like spinning the roulette wheel whether or not you get stuck under one to pick up any more than an inch or so outside of the higher elevations. At least we have some snow on the ground for the arctic chill. Nothing worse than bare ground and bitter cold temps. Yes, I expect to get 6" inches of LES at my house in the highlands. Going to be amazing. LES >>>> Clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 WTAE had most of the snow exiting by 8AM with a good batch between 4 and 6. If that is true will morning rush be that effected? There may be slick spots, but snow should start to taper off by A.M rush right? Looking at radar out west and some cams out near Cincy, roads are clear and radar isn't overly impressive right now. Morning rush was slightly longer today ..... My 45 min commute from the North Hills to downtown took 2.5 hrs...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Morning rush was slightly longer today ..... My 45 min commute from the North Hills to downtown took 2.5 hrs...... Yeah, since my last post, I've been driving around the area for work and I've been crawling everywhere. Like I said though, it doesn't take much when it hits near rush hour and temps are in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1014 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015 OHZ039>041-049-050-PAZ020-021-029-073-WVZ001-002-061800- /O.CON.KPBZ.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-150106T1800Z/ TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-BEAVER- ALLEGHENY-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-HANCOCK-BROOKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...CARROLLTON...SALEM... CADIZ...STEUBENVILLE...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA... WASHINGTON...GREENSBURG...LATROBE...WEIRTON...BETHANY 1014 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 3 INCHES. * SNOW ENDING...SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY THIS AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT SNOWFALL WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING 412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Models did a decent job with the QPF for this event over the past few days, imo. Liquid equivalent thus far at KPIT has been 0.16". Surprised at the ratios, though. As of the 8 a.m. PIT climate report, 1.3" snow / 0.13" liquid equivalent = 10:1 ratio. Looked at some of the most recent model runs, and think that the level of maximum upward vertical velocity (UVV) shifted upward from what had been progged a few days ago. Earlier, IIRC, the maximum UVV was progged near 700-600 hPa or so which aligned more with the dendritic growth zone (temps -12 to -18C). However, the maximum UVV apparently ended up around 550-400 hPa, where temps were below -20C at 12z this morning. Also, one note on traffic issues. Temps are below 20F, so salt is not that effective. Perhaps someone knows if PennDOT adjusts their material when temps drop below 20F...like the beet juice mixture discussed last winter? If crews are still dropping salt in these temps, it's no wonder that a little bit of snow caused traffic problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 6, 2015 Author Share Posted January 6, 2015 Finally looks like we see the cold temperatures for a bit. Maybe some lake effect tomorrow if you luck out around a band. Then friday I am hearing murmurs of another clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Got 2" here, which was about what I expected. Still snowing, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Finally looks like we see the cold temperatures for a bit. Maybe some lake effect tomorrow if you luck out around a band. Then friday I am hearing murmurs of another clipper. Right now looks like mainly I80 and north for Friday, but the Canadian is further South. Who knows if it ends up further South like today's clipper we might see some action out of it. Speaking of the Canadian, it has wintry precip for like all of next week with a bunch of strung out looking systems. Could be interesting if something like that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolling Snowed Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 NOUS41 KPBZ 062139PNSPBZMDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-070939-PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTSPOTTER REPORTSNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA439 PM EST TUE JAN 06 2015...LOCAL WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIALOBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 8 HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HASBEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAYDEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FORTHESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE ATWEATHER.GOV/PITTSBURGH********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTSSNOWFALL OF/INCHES/ MEASUREMENTMARYLAND...GARRETT COUNTY...OAKLAND 8.0 1246 PM 1/06 PUBLICMCHENRY 4.5 1125 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIAACCIDENT 3.0 848 AM 1/06 DEPT OF HIGHWAYSOHIO...BELMONT COUNTY...BARNESVILLE 4.0 1217 PM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA...COLUMBIANA COUNTY...SALEM 1.2 938 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER...COSHOCTON COUNTY...1 W WEST LAFAYETTE 3.5 1009 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER...GUERNSEY COUNTY...CAMBRIDGE 3.0 843 AM 1/06 DEPT OF HIGHWAYS...HARRISON COUNTY...JEWETT 2.0 930 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA...JEFFERSON COUNTY...KNOXVILLE 3.0 1120 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIATAYLORTOWN 2.5 1030 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIAHAMMONDSVILLE 2.0 1050 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA...MUSKINGUM COUNTY...BLUE ROCK 3.1 1139 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTERFRAZEYSBURG 2.5 856 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIAPENNSYLVANIA...ALLEGHENY COUNTY...PITCAIRN 2.5 1125 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA1 NW MORGAN HILL 2.0 1122 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIAPITTSBURGH 2.0 230 PM 1/06 MT WASHINGTON1 NW CARNEGIE 2.0 1140 AM 1/06 NWS EMPLOYEEROSS TOWNSHIP 1.8 100 PM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIASHALER TOWNSHIP 1.8 122 PM 1/06 PUBLIC1 NE FOX RIDGE 1.8 1111 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIAMOON TOWNSHIP 1.8 400 PM 1/06 NWS OFFICEPENN HILLS 1.5 1120 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA...BEAVER COUNTY...MONACA 3.0 1137 AM 1/06 NWS EMPLOYEEBEAVER 1.8 1119 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA...BUTLER COUNTY...HENDERSONVILLE 2.0 1030 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTERWEST SUNBURY 2.0 1121 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIABUTLER 1.5 930 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA...CLARION COUNTY...HAWTHORN 1.8 1125 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA...FAYETTE COUNTY...FARMINGTON 4.2 1136 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTERSMITHFIELD 2.8 212 PM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER...GREENE COUNTY...WAYNESBURG 3.0 1121 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIAALEPPO 3.0 1124 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA...INDIANA COUNTY...INDIANA 1.0 1007 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIAMARION CENTER T 1130 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA...JEFFERSON COUNTY...BROOKVILLE 1.0 1234 PM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIASIGEL 1.0 200 PM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA...WASHINGTON COUNTY...WASHINGTON 2.1 1129 AM 1/06 PUBLICDEEMSTON 1.5 124 PM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA...WESTMORELAND COUNTY...SMITHTON 2.5 1218 PM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIASEWARD 2.0 1219 PM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIAWEST VIRGINIA...HANCOCK COUNTY...WEIRTON 3.0 1112 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIAWEIRCREST 1.8 853 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA...MARION COUNTY...BARRACKVILLE 3.5 1200 PM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA...PRESTON COUNTY...AURORA 5.0 851 AM 1/06 DEPT OF HIGHWAYSKINGWOOD 4.0 851 AM 1/06 DEPT OF HIGHWAYSINDEPENDENCE 3.0 1050 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA...TUCKER COUNTY...DAVIS 6.0 1223 PM 1/06 DEPT OF HIGHWAYSTHOMAS 6.0 1223 PM 1/06 DEPT OF HIGHWAYSPARSONS 5.0 1222 PM 1/06 DEPT OF HIGHWAYS...WETZEL COUNTY...READER 4.5 1123 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA Pretty good forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Nice little storm. 2-3 inches blankets almost everything so happy we all got some. With cold weather pattern might build up a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I'm forecasted to get 3-5" tomorrow. Will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 The Canadian is still insistent bringing the friday clipper further south. Something to watch I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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