psunate1977 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I'm thinking this is going to end up a WWA event....both GFS and Para showing a good swath of 3-4" Is there something you see to back this? Seems like models are going in agreement with lack of moisture. Snow is snow, but I be happy with 2" out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 NAM destroys my hopes and dreams of a decent event. Looks like 2 inches if we are lucky. Should have known this clipper was being overdone once it entered PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Is there something you see to back this? Seems like models are going in agreement with lack of moisture. Snow is snow, but I be happy with 2" out of this. 1-3 inches seems reasonable. Ratios should be very high, like 15 or 20 to one, so even light QPF amounts should give us a chance at that with 4 inch spikes possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 NAM destroys my hopes and dreams of a decent event. Looks like 2 inches if we are lucky. Should have known this clipper was being overdone once it entered PA. Still shows probably about .1-.2 QPF which could still be 2-3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 PBZ Discussion for Tuesday: .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING ANDTRACK OF TUESDAY'S SYSTEM. MODELS ARE NOW POINTING TO A MORESOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE WEAK SURFACE WAVE. THE STRONG SHORTWAVEDRIVING THE SYSTEM...IS NOW PROJECTED TO DIVE INTO SOUTHERN OHIOBY DAWN ON TUESDAY. THE PUSH TO THE SOUTH IS ALSO SHIFTING THEHIGHER SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. MODELS ALLSHOWING THE AXIS OF HIGHER ACCUMULATION OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OFOHIO INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. ACCUMULATIONS WILLBE TRICKY DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE WILL OPEN UP AND STREAK SOUTHEASTWARDTUESDAY MORNING...AS THE DRIVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THEMID-ATLANTIC. THIS MOVEMENT IS PROVIDING A SMALL WINDOW (6-8HOURS) TO MAXIMIZE SNOW ACCUMULATION. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THEABSENCE OF A GOOD MOISTURE SOURCE...OTHER THAN THAT WHICH WILLACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...MODEL PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE NOT OVERLYIMPRESSIVE. MODEL SNOWFALL IS SHOWING A GENERAL 1-2 INCHES OUTSIDETHE MAIN SNOW AXIS...WITH 2-3 OR 2-4 WITHIN THAT AXIS. THE ARCTICAIR IN PLACE WILL SERVE TO HAMPER OPTIMAL MOISTURE CONTENT...BUTWILL ALSO PROVIDE HIGH SNOW RATIO AMOUNTS AND A LOW DENDRITIC SNOWGROWTH ZONE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS I WOULD LIKE IT TO BE FORTWO REASONS. THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN ALL MODELS AND THE SPEED ATWHICH THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THISSYSTEM WILL WRAP UP QUICKLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THISSTRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS.GOOD LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SCENARIO SETTING UP ON WEDNESDAY. STRONGNORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES WITH LITTLE SHEAR. ARCTIC AIR...850MB TEMPS OF -22 TO -24...CROSSING THE LAKES AND SNOW GROWTHZONES BELOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EVEN THOUGH MIXING HEIGHTS FALLON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL NOT MATTER MUCH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWGROWTH ZONES. TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT WHERE SNOW BANDS/SQUALLS WILLSETUP...BUT HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE NORMAL LOCATIONS(NORTH/RIDGES)WITH THE HIGHEST POPS.VERY COLD DAY WEDNESDAY WITH FRIGID WIND CHILLS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 That's a very good discussion. As it stands now if you see 3" tomorrow consider yourself lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Black n Gold we might finally be in decent shape in bethel Park but looks like even further further south....anyway if it ticks north were golden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 every model is south. There is no way we see 6 inches. I think 2-3 is reasonable at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 every model is south. There is no way we see 6 inches. I think 2-3 is reasonable at this point. Considering their large area of 3-6" it's not far off even though I saw you will have to go SW of Pittsburgh like Waynesburg on to see 3". I still think 1-2" is the safer call. Moisture still looks like a issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA1243 PM EST MON JAN 5 2015MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ020-021-029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-060145-/O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0001.150106T0500Z-150106T1800Z/GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...NEW PHILADELPHIA...CARROLLTON...SALEM...COSHOCTON...CADIZ...STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...ST. CLAIRSVILLE...CALDWELL...WOODSFIELD...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...WASHINGTON...WAYNESBURG...GREENSBURG...LATROBE...LIGONIER...DONEGAL...UNIONTOWN...CHAMPION...OHIOPYLE...WEIRTON...BETHANY...WHEELING...MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN...KINGWOOD...PARSONS1243 PM EST MON JAN 5 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO1 PM EST TUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHTTONIGHT TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES.* SNOW BEGINNING...AFTER MIDNIGHT.* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.* SNOW/ICE ENDING...BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOWCOVERED ROADS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Hoping for a slight jog north at the last minute which sometimes happens with these things but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Why the differences with this map from NWS? Looks like 3-5 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Why the differences with this map from NWS? Looks like 3-5 rangeThat one is including lake effect also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 That 1-2" area keeps moving SW. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Close to the southern sweet-spot here in Motown, but I really don't anticipate much more than 2" of fluff. Honestly, though, beggars can't be choosers, and I'd absolutely welcome that 2" of fluff with open arms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 Some models are moving north. Some are shearing out faster. Gonna be a now casting situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Another PBZ map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I'll stick to my guns and say 2-4 pittsburgh south with possible 5 inch totals further south. Clippers do tend to over perform...we will just have to see how quickly this shears out. If you can get under a decent band it should be all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Looks too cold and dry for significant snow. I'm thinking more on the order of an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Looks too cold and dry for significant snow. I'm thinking more on the order of an inch or two. Too cold?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 Too cold??i was going to argue, but I decided not to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Too cold?? 17F with a dew point of -2F at Allegheny County Airport. That doesn't sound too promising for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 17F with a dew point of -2F at Allegheny County Airport. That doesn't sound too promising for snow. You realized it snowed this morning with an 8 degree dewpoint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 You realized it snowed this morning with an 8 degree dewpoint not only that but I almost got an inch here when they were only calling for a trace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 not only that but I almost got an inch here when they were only calling for a trace Just a trace here in the South Hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I hope we get a good setup for some LES on Wed. Starting to wonder if some might do better with that if you can get under a good band than with the clipper. Just looks less and less impressive with each run. I'm talking outside the snow belts, they will do better obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I hope we get a good setup for some LES on Wed. Starting to wonder if some might do better with that if you can get under a good band than with the clipper. Just looks less and less impressive with each run. I'm talking outside the snow belts, they will do better obviously. Especially North and East. I know ratios are good (15:1), I just question how much moisture there will actually be. Latest models seem faster and a bit more south. Starting to wonder if a few will have done better today. Especially NE PBZ forecast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 2-4 stripe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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