blackngoldrules Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Potent clipper next week. awww screw it, its just gonna fringe us anyway. This winter has busted hard so far.One of the driest Decembers we've ever seen and January looks like it's going to get off to a slow start as well. This Saturday's threat looks like slop at best, but mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I'm at the point give me 2 dumpings and the rest of the time could be 40 and dry. He'll give me one big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolling Snowed Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Pretty sure 2014 was the most boring weather year since I've lived in the Pittsburgh area since 2002...Happy New Year's and to a more active 2015! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 This past December was the 6th least snowy winter on record. Things are going to get very cold around here next week but not much to get excited about snow wise it seems. Maybe that clipper that is showing up on the models will give us something. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 GFS has been showing a clipper system for early next week every run over the last few days. Looks like a couple of inches for the entire area, as of right now. Not much to brag about, but at least it's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 GFS has been showing a clipper system for early next week every run over the last few days. Looks like a couple of inches for the entire area, as of right now. Not much to brag about, but at least it's something.Yeah, hopefully the system is still there on Sunday.While this cold dry pattern does nothing but increase our heating bills, what little bit of snow we get will likely be high ratio. Also the flow looks to back around more NW next week in the wake of the departing system, so mabey we can get some lake effect action as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah, hopefully the system is still there on Sunday. While this cold dry pattern does nothing but increase our heating bills, what little bit of snow we get will likely be high ratio. Also the flow looks to back around more NW next week in the wake of the departing system, so mabey we can get some lake effect action as well. LES annoys me at this point. lol You never know where it's going to set up, and it rarely sets up well in my area anyway. Usually north of Pittsburgh does better with LES. I guess beggars can't be choosers at this point. Maybe it's better than nothing, especially if it's going to get frigid around here anyway. I rather enjoyed that little mild pattern we went through. I'd rather have that than frigid cold and nuisance snow showers and flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Haven't moved a shovel off my garage wall yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 Hope you guys enjoy being fringed by a clipper because according to the GFS and Para its looking like that could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Hope you guys enjoy being fringed by a clipper because according to the GFS and Para its looking like that could happen. Glad to see the GEM has picked up on the clipper for Tues-Wed and has it further South than the GFS. Looks like a couple inches possible anyway. It will definitely be cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah, hopefully the system is still there on Sunday. While this cold dry pattern does nothing but increase our heating bills, what little bit of snow we get will likely be high ratio. Also the flow looks to back around more NW next week in the wake of the departing system, so mabey we can get some lake effect action as well. Glad to see the GEM has picked up on the clipper for Tues-Wed and has it further South than the GFS. Looks like a couple inches possible anyway. It will definitely be cold enough. Yep - upcoming week appears to be a classic winter week, Pittsburgh style. Clipper on Tuesday could bring 1-2" to much of the area. Then a break as shortwave passes to the east. Cold air advection on Wednesday on northwesterly flow looks to supply lake-induced instability with sfc-850 hPa delta-T's approaching 25C, using the 12z European's 850 hPa temperature projection and Lake Erie temps around 3C. Deep moisture apparently in place from roughly PIT northward Wed-Wed. night, then lifts northward as flow turns more westerly. Lake-effect details this far out are anyone's guess, but the potential is there for some accumulating lake-effect snow in the metro area Wed-Wed night. More north of I-80 and in the Laurel Highlands. Here's to some snow this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Glad to see the GEM has picked up on the clipper for Tues-Wed and has it further South than the GFS. Looks like a couple inches possible anyway. It will definitely be cold enough. I hope we get a couple inches this upcoming week. Given the time of year even a few inches will stick around if temps are cold (which they should be) 18z Parallel GFS looking good for the clipper, hope that continues as we get closer. Is the old GFS even really worth looking at at this point? I'm guessing with the Parallel to go operational soon its verification is better. In the meantime, looks like a soaker coming up tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yep - upcoming week appears to be a classic winter week, Pittsburgh style. Clipper on Tuesday could bring 1-2" to much of the area. Then a break as shortwave passes to the east. Cold air advection on Wednesday on northwesterly flow looks to supply lake-induced instability with sfc-850 hPa delta-T's approaching 25C, using the 12z European's 850 hPa temperature projection and Lake Erie temps around 3C. Deep moisture apparently in place from roughly PIT northward Wed-Wed. night, then lifts northward as flow turns more westerly. Lake-effect details this far out are anyone's guess, but the potential is there for some accumulating lake-effect snow in the metro area Wed-Wed night. More north of I-80 and in the Laurel Highlands. Here's to some snow this week Thanks for the update! Would be nice to see a favorable wind trajectory for some LES. We haven't really had that yet this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 20% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Anyone going out please stay safe. ROADS ARE HORRIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Freezing Rain Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 638 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2015 OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ020-021-029-031-073-075- WVZ001>004-012-021-022-031500- /O.EXB.KPBZ.ZR.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-150103T1500Z/ TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH- MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY- WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO- MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...CARROLLTON...SALEM... COSHOCTON...CADIZ...STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE... ST. CLAIRSVILLE...CALDWELL...WOODSFIELD...BEAVER... PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...WASHINGTON...WAYNESBURG...GREENSBURG... LATROBE...UNIONTOWN...WEIRTON...BETHANY...WHEELING... MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN 638 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2015 ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A TRACE. * ICE ENDING...LATE THIS MORNING. * IMPACTS...LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ICING WILL CAUSE SOME ROADS AND SIDEWALKS TO BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS AS AREAS THAT LOOK WET MAY BE ICED OVER. IF YOU MUST DRIVE...BE EXTREMELY CAUTIOUS AS YOU WILL ENCOUNTER ICE ON THE ROADS AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR ICY SURFACES AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING 412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I went out to go get the paper down the flat driveway and couldn't even take 1 step....crazy ice!...be careful guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Heavy freezing rain here. Roads and sidewalks look like skating rinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Freezing Rain Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA638 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2015OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ020-021-029-031-073-075-WVZ001>004-012-021-022-031500-/O.EXB.KPBZ.ZR.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-150103T1500Z/TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...CARROLLTON...SALEM...COSHOCTON...CADIZ...STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...ST. CLAIRSVILLE...CALDWELL...WOODSFIELD...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...WASHINGTON...WAYNESBURG...GREENSBURG...LATROBE...UNIONTOWN...WEIRTON...BETHANY...WHEELING...MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN638 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2015...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THISMORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A FREEZINGRAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A TRACE.* ICE ENDING...LATE THIS MORNING.* IMPACTS...LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ICING WILL CAUSE SOME ROADS AND SIDEWALKS TO BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS AS AREAS THAT LOOK WET MAY BE ICED OVER. IF YOU MUST DRIVE...BE EXTREMELY CAUTIOUS AS YOU WILL ENCOUNTER ICE ON THE ROADS AT TIMES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSETRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR ICY SURFACES AND USE CAUTIONWHILE DRIVING. REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHERSERVICE BY CALLING 412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGHFACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH. There's way more than a trace of ice here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Thanks for the update! Would be nice to see a favorable wind trajectory for some LES. We haven't really had that yet this winter. Yes, I agree -- the BUF area cashed in with SW-WSW flow in November. Erie also cashed in (to a much lesser extent!) just prior to BUF's big week, on a westerly flow. The NW flow events indeed have been lacking. This could end up being a below-average snowfall winter for parts of NW PA if Lake Erie freezes as usual -- it's already 3C away from freezing. One note on Tuesday's snow - if modeled temperatures and omega come to fruition, ratios could be nice. Perhaps 20:1. Could help wring out a bit more snow than the usual 10:1 ratio. As of now, think 1-2" possible over much of the area, with 2-4" possible somewhere in W PA, west of and including the Highlands...too early to figure out where exactly, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Talking about WWA for Tuesday. Personally I never get excited about clippers. Seem like we under perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Weather Channel has us in the 3-5" range; I'd say that's probably ambitious. I'll anticipate 1-2" total down here through Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Idk, mabey it's just carryover from last nights disappointment at Heinz Field, but every model wants to dampen this clipper as it moves east. I'll always defer to the pro's, but how much juice will this thing have by the time it reaches us ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Jan 2014? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 Well I am wondering how much steam this will have once it reaches us. I think we see 2 inches, 4 if we get lucky. I know one thing, won't be above freezing until sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Well I am wondering how much steam this will have once it reaches us. I think we see 2 inches, 4 if we get lucky. I know one thing, won't be above freezing until sunday. 4" for Pittsburgh is pushing it IMO. 2" Maybe pushing it. Models aren't promising each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Idk, mabey it's just carryover from last nights disappointment at Heinz Field, but every model wants to dampen this clipper as it moves east. I'll always defer to the pro's, but how much juice will this thing have by the time it reaches us ? That's the thing about clippers. There's isn't much moisture associated with them to begin with. And they tend to weaken as they move east. I'm thinking 1-2" out of this one at best, as it stands now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I'm thinking this is going to end up a WWA event....both GFS and Para showing a good swath of 3-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I agree, the last several runs have continued to weaken the system and decrease overall qpf. Unless that trend is incorrect 1-2 or 1-3 seem like a good call. I wouldn't be suprised to see NWS lower totals in later updates vs the 3-5 they have now. That being said, its the biggest storm of the year so I guess at least we have something to disect and talk about. That's the thing about clippers. There's isn't much moisture associated with them to begin with. And they tend to weaken as they move east. I'm thinking 1-2" out of this one at best, as it stands now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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